2026 DHS Shutdown Prediction MarketKalshi settled 20 of its 32 outcomes Yes
Kalshi settled 20 outcomes Yes: At least 1 day, At least 10 days, At least 15 days and 17 more.
No result reported yet
How long will the government shutdown last?
Trading has closed, so there's no price to buy.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 day Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 10 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 15 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 2 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 20 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 25 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 3 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 30 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 35 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 40 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 43 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 45 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 5 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 50 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 55 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 60 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 65 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 7 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 70 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 75 days Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 110 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 100 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 120 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 130 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 140 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 150 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 200 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 300 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 80 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 85 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 90 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
| At least 95 days Settled No | – | KalshiSettled | ||
Settled Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed Sep 24, 12:00 PM ET.
How long will the DHS shutdown last?
Trading has closed on Polymarket, and it hasn't reported a result yet.
No result reported yet
Trading has closed, so there's no price to buy.
| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 3+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 60+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 48+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 40+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 90+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 110+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 10+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 44+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 30+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 14+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 100+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 120+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 5+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 7+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 52+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 70+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
| 21+ days Closed | – | PolymarketClosed | ||
Closed Source: Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between May 29, 7:58 AM and 8:23 AM ET.
The DHS shutdown lasted 76 days
The 2026 Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasted 76 elapsed days. The DHS-only funding lapse began February 14. Funding action occurred April 30, with DHS funded again by May 1.
| Scope | Department of Homeland Security only |
|---|---|
| Start | February 14, 2026 |
| Funding restored | May 1, 2026 |
| Elapsed duration | 76 days |
| Final duration bracket | More than 75 days, fewer than 80 days |
| Tracked duration-market volume | More than $24 million |
This was not a shutdown of the entire federal government. It was a funding lapse affecting DHS, including agencies such as TSA, FEMA, CBP, ICE and CISA.
How the 76-day shutdown unfolded
- February 14: the DHS funding lapse began.
- Early market: Kalshi’s median duration forecast opened near 27 days.
- March: failed funding votes pushed the market’s expected duration toward 60 days.
- April: repeated delays moved the 70- and 75-day thresholds sharply higher.
- April 30-May 1: funding was restored, fixing the elapsed duration at 76 days.
Final Kalshi and Polymarket shutdown results
| Exchange | Contract | Final result |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 75 days or more | Yes |
| Kalshi | 80 days or more | No |
| Polymarket | 70 days or more | Yes |
| Polymarket | 80 days or more | No |
| Polymarket | 90 days or more | No |
The settlements place the result cleanly between 75 and 80 days. The archived chart above shows how traders repeatedly extended their forecasts as funding votes failed.
When DHS was funded again
Kalshi’s separate funding-deadline series reached the same conclusion from a calendar-date perspective. The Before April 22 contract settled No, while Before May 1 settled Yes. This second board is Kalshi-only; it is not a cross-platform aggregate.
More than $24M in DHS shutdown duration-market volume
- Kalshi: 22.71 million in final face-value contract volume across the complete 32-contract DHS shutdown-duration series.
- Polymarket: approximately $1.49 million in cumulative trading volume across the complete 18-contract duration event.
- Headline total: more than $24 million in tracked duration-market volume.
Source: DeFi Rate aggregation of first-party Kalshi and Polymarket exchange data. The headline combines Kalshi’s displayed face-value contract volume with Polymarket’s cumulative USD trading volume as a measure of market activity; it should not be read as standardized cash notional. The archived board maps a selected subset of thresholds, so its selected-market total is lower than the complete-series figure used in the headline.
Why DHS shut down again in 2026
The February lapse was the second shutdown episode of 2026, but it was narrower than the first. Congress ended the earlier partial federal shutdown after funding most agencies while separating the Department of Homeland Security bill for additional negotiations. DHS received only a short-term extension, leaving the central dispute unresolved.
The disagreement centered on immigration-enforcement policy and oversight. Democrats sought additional restrictions and accountability measures governing Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection operations. Republicans opposed tying full-year DHS funding to those changes. When the temporary DHS appropriation expired at the end of February 13, the department entered another funding lapse on February 14.
This second shutdown did not close the entire federal government. Many DHS border-security and law-enforcement employees were designated essential and continued working without normal pay, while other department functions slowed or stopped. That distinction is why the prediction markets tracked a DHS-specific duration rather than the length of a government-wide shutdown.
How the 76 days were counted
The duration is measured as elapsed time from the February 14 funding lapse to the May 1 restoration boundary. That produces 76 full elapsed days. Counting both calendar dates inclusively would produce 77 date labels, which is why threshold-contract rules and timestamps matter. The final exchange settlements confirm the operative bracket: 75 days or more was Yes and 80 days or more was No.
FAQ
- How long did the 2026 DHS shutdown last?
The DHS-only funding lapse lasted 76 elapsed days, beginning February 14 and ending at the April 30-May 1 funding boundary.
- How much prediction-market volume did the DHS shutdown generate?
DeFi Rate recorded more than $24 million across the complete Kalshi and Polymarket duration series: 22.71 million in Kalshi face-value contract volume and $1.49 million in Polymarket cumulative trading volume.
- How did the shutdown duration markets settle?
Kalshi’s 75-days-or-more contract settled Yes and its 80-days-or-more contract settled No. Polymarket’s 70-day contract settled Yes, while its 80- and 90-day contracts settled No.
- Was the entire U.S. federal government shut down?
No. This was a Department of Homeland Security funding lapse. Other federal departments were not part of this shutdown.
More prediction market coverage
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