Prediction marketsWhere every number comes from

The sign-up bonus Kalshi currently offers new customers with code RATE. Trade $10 within 90 days. Trading credit; expires 7 days after it’s granted; winnings are withdrawable.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Sep 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “Kalshi offers new customers trade $10, get $25 with code RATE” (Kalshi terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus Polymarket US currently offers new customers with code RATE. First deposit of at least $10. Trading credit; winnings are withdrawable.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Sep 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “Polymarket US offers new customers deposit $10, get $50 with code RATE” (Polymarket US terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus FanDuel Predicts currently offers new customers. Trade $1 a day for 5 days. Bonus not withdrawable; winnings are.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Sep 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “FanDuel Predicts offers new customers trade $5, get $100” (FanDuel Predicts terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus OG Predictions currently offers new customers. First $10 trade within 7 days. Reward credited after first trade.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Sep 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “OG Predictions offers new customers trade $10, get $10” (OG Predictions terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus DraftKings Predictions currently offers new customers. Opt in, then trade $5+; paid over 21 days. Credit not withdrawable; profits are.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Sep 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “DraftKings Predictions offers new customers spend $5+, get $200” (DraftKings Predictions terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The dollar value of all contracts traded on Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, Aug 26-Sep 24, 2026.

Sum of daily traded volume across the three venues.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Prediction markets traded $16.3 billion in 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

Kalshi’s share of 30-day prediction-market volume across the venues we track.

Kalshi 30-day volume divided by the three-venue total.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi handled 85% of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

Prediction market apps open to US customers and trading today, each operating as or through a CFTC-registered exchange.

Counted from DeFi Rate’s operator tracker: Polymarket US, Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions, OG Predictions, Underdog Predict, ForecastEx. Novig is approved but not trading; Fanatics Markets’ status isn’t confirmed. Neither is counted.

Record type: CFTC status tracker. Cited as: “8 prediction market apps are live for US customers” (DeFi Rate CFTC tracker).

Source documents (10)

ConstructedStale

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 61.2% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (60.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.65¢).
Polymarket 62.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 61.8%, shown as 62%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 4:06 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (64.5%) and Polymarket (62.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 64%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 4:06 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The market-implied chance the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +700, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (12.5%) and Polymarket (12.50%). This snapshot has Kalshi's last traded price, not its bid and ask, so both venues are priced at their last trade here.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Los Angeles Rams a 13% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

Stale

The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.

Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 91.85% and Polymarket 92.5%. Average: 92.2%, shown as 92%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (65.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (44.5%) and Polymarket (51.0%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 48% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).