Florida Governor Election OddsFlorida Governor Odds: Byron Donalds (R) Leads

Florida's governor race looks closer in the polls than in the markets. A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC6 and Telemundo, taken September 28–October 1 and released October 6 (NBC News reported it October 7), has Donalds ahead 48% to 41% among likely voters, with 10% undecided (margin of error ±4 points). Polls released since range from a tie to a double-digit Donalds lead. A CBS12 roundup of polls on October 10 listed a YouGov survey taken September 28–October 5 and released October 6 with Donalds up 47% to 45%; a St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics taken October 5–7 and released October 7 with the race tied at 45%; and a James Madison Institute survey taken September 28–October 4 and released October 9 with Donalds up 52% to 42% among likely voters. A Change Research poll for Freedom Project USA, taken October 8–10 and released October 12, surveyed 1,106 registered voters; among the 920 likely voters, the two were tied at 47%. The newest, a Stetson University poll taken October 1–9 and released October 13, had Donalds ahead 52% to 41% among likely voters.

Voters may not see the two on a debate stage. Jolly ruled out debates on September 20, citing Donalds' "bad faith"; Jolly's campaign said Donalds had turned down debates Jolly accepted earlier. Florida A&M had just announced a statewide debate and said it was working out whether it could still go ahead. Both candidates are instead courting voters statewide: Donalds on his "Defending the Florida Dream" tour, pitching low taxes and a tough-on-crime approach, and Jolly on wages, affordability and school funding.

The markets lean further toward Donalds than the polls do. Checked at 3:09 p.m. Eastern on October 14, Donalds' side last traded at 79% on Kalshi, and Polymarket's Republicans-win market sat at 79.5%, the midpoint between its 79¢ bid and 80¢ ask. For context, Trump carried Florida by 13 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won the governorship since 1994. The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 3:09 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Donalds' side last traded at 79¢ (79%) and Jolly's at 21¢. On Polymarket, the Republicans-win market's midpoint was 79.5% (79¢ bid, 80¢ ask; last trade 79¢). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 13, 2026: Stetson University released a poll taken October 1–9, with Donalds ahead 52% to 41% among likely voters and 5% undecided. Stetson gives a precision range of ±4.2 points for the online poll. (Source: Newsweek)
• October 12, 2026: Change Research released a poll for Freedom Project USA, taken October 8–10, of 1,106 registered voters; among the 920 likely voters, Jolly and Donalds were tied at 47% (margin of error ±3.1 points). (Source: Change Research)
• October 9, 2026: the James Madison Institute released a Targoz Market Research poll, taken September 28–October 4, with Donalds ahead 52% to 42% among likely voters. (Source: CBS12)
• October 7, 2026: St. Pete Polls released a survey for Florida Politics, taken October 5–7, with the race tied at 45%. Independents favored Jolly 49% to 33%. (Source: CBS12)
• October 6, 2026: Mason-Dixon released a poll for NBC6 and Telemundo, taken September 28–October 1, with Donalds ahead 48% to 41% among likely voters and 10% undecided; among Hispanic voters he led 48% to 43%. NBC News reported it October 7. YouGov released a survey the same day, taken September 28–October 5, with Donalds up 47% to 45%. (Sources: NBC News, CBS12)
• October 3, 2026: Donalds was touring the state on his "Defending the Florida Dream" tour, while Jolly met the Sarasota County school board and called for more tourism-tax money for schools. (Source: ABC7 Sarasota)
• September 20, 2026: Jolly said he won't debate Donalds, citing Donalds' "bad faith." Florida A&M, which had just announced a statewide debate, said it was working out whether the debate could still go ahead. (Source: WCTV)

The matchup

This is an open seat: DeSantis is term-limited. Donalds, a congressman from Southwest Florida with Trump's endorsement, won the Republican primary on August 18. Jolly, a former Republican congressman who became a Democrat, is the Democratic nominee. Minor-party and no-party candidates are on the ballot but don't trade above a cent or two.

What matters in the race

• Independent voters. The St. Pete Polls survey taken October 5–7 had independents favoring Jolly 49% to 33%; Donalds' path relies on Florida's large Republican registration edge.
• Turnout in a midterm. Florida Republicans have outvoted Democrats in recent midterms; a narrower gap is Jolly's main hope.
• National mood. Democrats aren't treating Florida as a top target, so outside money is light compared with the swing states.

Key dates

• October 24–31, 2026: early voting in every county (some counties start as early as October 19).
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• January 2027: the winner takes office.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's Florida market (GOVPARTYFL-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of Florida after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.

If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.