NFL Week 1 prediction market odds continue to fluctuate as we enter preseason games, with kickoff scheduled for Wednesday, Sept. 9. It’s a big game rematch of Patriots vs. Seahawks at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. NFL futures markets remain incredibly active at leading platforms, with volume on Kalshi already moving past week 1 of last year.
Week 1 opens with some of the NFL’s biggest rivalries already on the board. The Cowboys and Giants renew their NFC East battle under the Sunday night lights, the 49ers and Rams kick off the season in Australia, and the Bills and Texans are separated by just two percentage points in early trading. Below, we compare opening odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, and DraftKings for every Week 1 matchup.
NFL Week 1 odds and prediction markets
Kalshi released Week 1 odds on May 16. Probabilities are updated weekly as volume grows with links to live odds feeds for each individual game. Polymarket odds remain TBD and will be updated as markets open.
| Game | Kalshi | Polymarket US | FanDuel | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | SEA 67% / NE 33% | TBD | SEA -198 / NE +166 | SEA -198 / NE +164 |
| 49ers vs. Rams (Australia) | LAR 64% / SF 36% | TBD | LAR -210 / SF +176 | LAR -180 / SF +150 |
| Saints @ Lions | DET 74% / NO 26% | TBD | DET -320 / NO +260 | DET -310 / NO +250 |
| Bears @ Panthers | CHI 57% / CAR 43% | TBD | CHI -146 / CAR +124 | CHI -148 / CAR +124 |
| Bills @ Texans | BUF 51% / HOU 49% | TBD | BUF -110 / HOU -106 | BUF -122 / HOU +102 |
| Ravens @ Colts | BAL 63% / IND 37% | TBD | BAL -200 / IND +168 | BAL -180 / IND +150 |
| Falcons @ Steelers | PIT 59% / ATL 41% | TBD | PIT -146 / ATL +124 | PIT -170 / ATL +142 |
| Buccaneers @ Bengals | CIN 63% / TB 37% | TBD | CIN -210 / TB +176 | CIN -198 / TB +164 |
| Jets @ Titans | TEN 55% / NYJ 45% | TBD | TEN -134 / NYJ +116 | TEN -155 / NYJ +130 |
| Browns @ Jaguars | JAX 76% / CLE 24% | TBD | JAX -405 / CLE +320 | JAX -380 / CLE +300 |
| Commanders @ Eagles | PHI 66% / WAS 34% | TBD | PHI -215 / WAS +180 | PHI -218 / WAS +180 |
| Packers @ Vikings | GB 50% / MIN 50% | TBD | GB -110 / MIN -106 | GB -115 / MIN -105 |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | LV 63% / MIA 37% | TBD | LV -210 / MIA +176 | LV -205 / MIA +170 |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | LAC 79% / ARI 21% | TBD | LAC -590 / ARI +440 | LAC -625 / ARI +455 |
| Cowboys @ Giants | DAL 56% / DAL 44% | TBD | DAL -152 / NYG +128 | DAL -148 / NYG +124 |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | KC 57% / DEN 43% | TBD | KC -146 / DEN +124 | KC -162 / DEN +136 |
Week 1 game-by-game breakdown
Wednesday, Sept. 9
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA | Wednesday, Sept. 9 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock
The Super Bowl LX rematch kicks off the 2026 season in what marks just the second time in 75 years the NFL has opened on a Wednesday. Seattle is favored, reflecting both the home field advantage and the perceived gap between the two teams. The storyline here is whether Drake Maye and company have closed the gap since February’s 29-13 defeat.
Thursday Night Football, Sept. 10
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Australia | 8:35 p.m. ET | Netflix
The NFL’s first-ever game in Australia is one of the tightest on the Week 1 slate by pricing. The Rams enter as a modest favorite. They’re currently favored in Super Bowl odds on Kalshi, and second behind the Seahawks at Polymarket. Both teams enter with genuine NFC West title ambitions and legitimate Super Bowl cases, making this a must-see matchup.
Sunday, Sept. 13 – 1 p.m. ET games
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Ford Field, Detroit, MI | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Detroit opens as one of the heaviest favorites of Week 1. They’re favored to win the NFC North this season and widely expected to rebound from last season’s fourth-place finish. New Orleans arrives as a 1% Super Bowl contender on Kalshi. Pricing suggests this is one of the clearest mismatches on the opening slate.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Chicago opens as a slight road favorite, with Carolina aiming to prove last season’s NFC South crown wasn’t a fluke. The Bears are at 23% to win the NFC North on Kalshi. A clean Week 1 win on the road would be a strong early statement in what shapes up as a genuinely competitive division race with Detroit and Green Bay.
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
The tightest line of the early Sunday window, with Buffalo installed as a slight favorite. The Bills enter as the AFC East’s top choice at 58% on Kalshi. Houston is favored at 39% to win the AFC South. A Bills loss here would immediately tighten the AFC East market, while a Texans victory could spike their division and conference pricing.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Baltimore opens as a road favorite against a Colts team still waiting on Daniel Jones to return from an Achilles tear. The Ravens lead the AFC North at 47% on Kalshi, the most dominant divisional position in the conference. Indianapolis is at 16% to win the AFC South at Polymarket, behind the Texans and Jaguars.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Pittsburgh is favored to get the home win, but heads to opening week with questions. The Steelers’ quarterback situation remains unresolved. Aaron Rodgers is still unsigned, contributing to the line discrepancy between books. Atlanta checks in at 21% to win the NFC South on Kalshi, last among the four teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
Cincinnati opens as the home favorite and looks to bounce back from a 6-11 finish. The Bengals sit at 32% to win the AFC North on Kalshi, second only to Baltimore’s 47%. A strong Week 1 performance at home against Tampa Bay would be an early signal that better days could be on the way for Cincinnati and potentially tighten division pricing.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN | 1 p.m. ET
Tennessee opens as the favorite as they welcome a New York team that has lots of questions to answer following a 3-14 campaign. The Titans are at just 8% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, with the Jets at 5% to win the AFC East contender at 5%. Both franchises enter 2026 with low expectations and something to prove early.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Jacksonville opens as one of the largest favorites of the week. They won the AFC South a season ago, while Cleveland finished in the basement of the AFC North. The Jaguars, at 33% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, are well-positioned to make a division title run. A dominant Week 1 home win could help set the tone, while a tighter game could impact expectations.
Sunday, Sept. 13 – Late games
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA | 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Kalshi has the NFC East as a dead heat between Dallas and Philadelphia at 35% each, with Washington at 17%. The game is being priced as a clear Eagles advantage in Week 1. A Commanders win here would shift the division market, a race the prediction markets are already pricing as one to watch.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Kalshi has Green Bay at 30% and Minnesota at 20% to win the NFC North. Detroit (33%) and Chicago (23%) in the mix make this one of the most competitive chases on the board. Neither team can afford an early stumble in what shapes up as one of the more compelling matchups of the late Sunday window for Week 1.
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV | 4:25 p.m. ET
Las Vegas opens as a home favorite against a Dolphins team Kalshi views as the AFC East’s biggest longshot at 4%. Miami’s worst regular-season record odds of 31% on Kalshi make this a game the Raiders, at 8% to win the AFC West, genuinely need to win early to establish any credibility in a division where three teams are bunched within four points at the top.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
The most lopsided line of Week 1 by a significant margin. The Chargers, at 34% to win the AFC West, open as heavy favorites in a game that should do little to move any market. The Cardinals, at 1% Super Bowl odds on Kalshi and 28% worst record odds, appear to be headed into the clearest mismatch on the slate.
Sunday Night Football, Sept. 13
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC (SNF)
Dallas opens as a road favorite for this divisional primetime showdown. The NFC East race is a virtual dead heat on Kalshi, with both Dallas and Philadelphia at 35% to win the division. The Giants are getting some market respect at 17%, up 4 points recently on Kalshi, under new head coach John Harbaugh. SNF is set to be a marquee game of the opening slate.
Monday Night Football, Sept. 14
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC (MNF)
Kansas City opens as a home favorite in the most strategically significant game of Week 1 from a division market standpoint. Kalshi has the AFC West as the tightest division race in football: Chargers 34%, Chiefs 32%, Broncos 30%. Patrick Mahomes’ availability is the central question. All signs point to him playing, but his recovery remains one of the offseason’s defining subplots.
NFL prediction market landscape entering the preseason
The NFL preseason opens on Thursday, August 9, with Panthers vs. Cardinals in the Hall of Fame Game at 8 p.m. ET on NBC. Here is where the key markets stand as we get set for the return of football.
NFL futures at prediction markets
The Los Angeles Rams are the consensus Super Bowl favorites, trading at 16% on Kalshi and 15% on Polymarket. Behind them is a competitive chase for second place. The Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, and defending champion Seahawks are all jockeying for position, with prices moving between 6-8%.
On the conference side, the Rams are favored by a wide margin, with the Seahawks and Eagles priced as the biggest threats. Over in the AFC, probabilities are much tighter, with the Bills currently slightly ahead of the Ravens, Chiefs, and Chargers.
Division markets point to several compelling storylines. The AFC West is the tightest race on the board at Kalshi, with three teams trading within four points of each other: Chargers 34%, Chiefs 32%, Broncos 30%.
For the NFL MVP award, both platforms have it priced as a tight chase. Josh Allen (11%) is right ahead of Joe Burrow (10%) in current pricing on Kalshi. On Polymarket, it’s Allen at 13%, ahead of Lamar Jackson at 11%.
NFL prediction market trading volume
Kalshi’s Super Bowl LXI market has logged over $52.8 million in trading volume before a single game has been played. The figure speaks to the growing role prediction markets are playing in how NFL fans engage with the league during the offseason.
Polymarket’s Super Bowl market sits at $42.6 million in volume over the same period. Combined, the two platforms have seen more than $85 million traded on Super Bowl futures alone, with division and conference markets adding tens of millions more.
That number will climb steadily through training camp, the preseason, and into the regular season as even more markets open and weekly trading activity accelerates.
Notable Week 1 line moves
Prices continue to move for Bills vs. Texans, which has the potential to be one of Week 1’s most competitive showdowns. At the initial release, Houston was a slight favorite. It’s now listed as close to a coin flip, with Buffalo on top.
Probabilities have widened on the 49ers vs. Rams as the off-season moves along. Los Angeles opened as a pretty sizable favorite, but the spread widened after the club swung a blockbuster deal to bring Myles Garrett to town.
As the preseason moves along, there will be increased trading volume on all of the Week 1 matchups. The news cycle moves rapidly throughout August, and notable developments tend to translate into price moves.
What to expect for NFL prediction markets this season
The 2026 season represents another significant step in the growth of NFL prediction market trading. For traders, the practical implication is that the NFL is no longer just a sportsbook sport. It is a fully functioning prediction market ecosystem with real liquidity, regulated infrastructure, and a growing suite of contracts that will expand as the season progresses.
Trading will remain active throughout the offseason, with volume and pricing sharpening as kickoff approaches. The Super Bowl market, already past $85 million in combined volume, will continue to attract significant trading activity through every week of the regular season and into the playoffs.
Related: See daily trading volume on NFL markets
