New York Governor Election OddsNew York Governor Odds: Kathy Hochul (D) Leads

Hochul and Blakeman met on October 13 in their only scheduled debate. It opened on a recent ICE shooting in the Bronx. Blakeman said Hochul "has made us a sanctuary state" and pointed to Nassau County's work with ICE; Hochul called that a "non-answer," said he refused to condemn what ICE did and said "New York is not a sanctuary for criminals." Hochul tied Blakeman to Trump and blamed Trump's policies for higher gas and energy costs, while Blakeman called her time in office "a record of misery and failure" and pointed to utility rates.

The polls have Hochul ahead. A new Marist poll of 1,361 registered voters, taken October 1–4 and released October 7, has her at 53% to Blakeman's 42% (margin of error ±3.6 points). Two polls of likely voters released September 23 were further apart: the latest Siena poll, taken September 11–17, had Hochul up 50% to 41%, little changed from August, and a Quinnipiac University poll, taken September 17–20, had her up 58% to 39%. Siena found Blakeman narrowly ahead upstate and among independents, and the downstate suburbs close.

The markets make Hochul a heavy favorite. Checked at 3:31 p.m. Eastern on October 14, Hochul's side last traded at 93.6% on Kalshi, and Polymarket's Democrats-win market sat at 94.05%, the midpoint between its 94¢ bid and 94.1¢ ask. The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 3:31 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Hochul's side last traded at 93.6¢ (93.6%) and Blakeman's at 6.6¢. On Polymarket, the Democrats-win market's midpoint was 94.05% (94¢ bid, 94.1¢ ask; last trade 94.1¢). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 13, 2026: Hochul and Blakeman held their only scheduled debate. They argued over a recent ICE shooting in the Bronx and whether New York is a sanctuary state, Trump's role in rising costs, taxes and utility rates. (Sources: Spectrum News NY1, Fox News)
• October 7, 2026: Marist released a poll of 1,361 registered voters, taken October 1–4, with Hochul ahead 53% to 42% (margin of error ±3.6 points). (Source: Marist Poll)
• September 23, 2026: Siena released a poll of 1,144 likely voters, taken September 11–17, with Hochul ahead 50% to 41% (margin of error ±3.9 points); in August she led 49% to 39%. Quinnipiac released a poll of 1,026 likely voters the same day, taken September 17–20, with Hochul ahead 58% to 39% (margin of error ±4.1 points). (Sources: Siena Research Institute, Spectrum News NY1, FingerLakes1)

The matchup

Hochul, a Democrat, became governor in 2021 and won a full term in 2022. Blakeman, who has Trump's endorsement, is still unknown to many voters: in Siena's March poll most had no opinion of him.

What matters in the race

• The suburbs. Siena has the downstate suburbs close, which is where Republicans gained in 2022.
• Trump's endorsement. In Siena's poll, more voters said it hurts Blakeman than helps him.
• Expectations. Two-thirds of Siena's respondents expect Hochul to win, in line with the markets.

Key dates

• October 24, 2026: last day for the Board of Elections to receive voter registrations.
• October 24–November 1, 2026: early voting.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• January 2027: the winner takes office.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's New York market (GOVPARTYNY-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of New York after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.

If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.