Massachusetts Governor Odds & PredictionsMass Governor Odds: Maura Healey (D) Favorite to Win at 95%

Massachusetts' governor race moves to its last debate. Gov. Maura Healey and Republican Mike Minogue meet Thursday, October 15, from 8 to 9 p.m. on WCVB Channel 5 for their second and final debate, hosted with WBUR and the Boston Globe. In their first debate on WBZ-TV on October 8, Healey named Trump more than 30 times, while Minogue said it "really doesn't matter who the president is" and pitched ending the state gas tax and a utility fee. He also called the Springfield courthouse project a $2 billion giveaway; Healey said it costs $463 million.

Energy bills are the main fight. On October 5, Healey signed an energy emergency order that adds heating help and pauses some clean energy charges on electric bills this winter. This week she pressed utilities for refunds, asking Eversource, National Grid and Unitil to pay back customers early from a federal ruling on transmission profits and to reply by October 27. Minogue says he would cut state-required fees from utility bills on his first day and look at gas pipelines and small nuclear plants. Earlier, Healey adopted his call to suspend the gas tax.

Healey still leads every public poll by double digits, but the gap has narrowed. A GBH News review on October 8 noted a mid-September MassINC poll for CommonWealth Beacon with Healey ahead 54% to 32%, and a University of New Hampshire poll with her lead down to 16 points. A super PAC backing Minogue released its own poll, paid for by his side, showing a close race, but only among voters who had seen, read or heard about the contest, not all voters. Minogue spent about $6.1 million in September alone, a record for a Massachusetts governor's race in a single month, the Boston Globe reported.

The markets see little doubt. Checked at 4:26 p.m. Eastern on October 14, Healey's side last traded at 95% on Kalshi (94.9¢), and Polymarket's Healey market sat at 95.7%, the midpoint between its 95.3¢ bid and 96.1¢ ask. The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 4:26 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Healey's side last traded at 94.9¢ (95%) and Minogue's at 5.2¢. On Polymarket, Healey's midpoint was 95.7% (95.3¢ bid, 96.1¢ ask; last trade 96.1¢). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 13, 2026: Healey wrote to Eversource, National Grid, Unitil and the grid operator ISO-New England asking them to refund customers right away for years of overcharged transmission profits, part of about $1.5 billion owed across New England. She asked for answers by October 27. (Source: WBUR)
• October 8, 2026: in the first debate, on WBZ-TV with Jon Keller moderating, Healey named Trump more than 30 times and Minogue pressed on taxes, energy costs and the Steward hospital closures. (Sources: NBC Boston, WBUR)
• October 7, 2026: WCVB, WBUR and the Boston Globe announced the final debate for October 15, 8–9 p.m., moderated by Ed Harding. (Source: Boston Globe Media)
• October 5, 2026: Healey declared a state of energy emergency (Executive Order 659): more heating help for about 156,000 lower-income homes, up to $680 for middle-income homes that heat with oil, and a three-month pause on the solar charge on home electric bills. (Source: Mass.gov)
• October 2, 2026: campaign filings showed Minogue spent about $6.1 million in September, the most a Massachusetts candidate for governor has spent in one month. (Source: Boston Globe)

The matchup

Healey, a Democrat and former attorney general, was elected in 2022 and is running again with Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll. Minogue, a medical-device executive, won the Republican primary on September 1 over Brian Shortsleeve, with Shawn Oliver as his running mate. He has put roughly $17 million of his own money into the race, and gave to Trump's 2024 campaign.

What matters in the race

• Energy and heating costs. Home heating oil averaged about $6 a gallon in early October, and both candidates are running on lowering bills.
• Cost of living and housing. Minogue's main line of attack; Healey points to her housing law and faster permits.
• Trump. Healey ties Minogue to the president at every turn in a state Trump lost badly; Minogue's 32% in the MassINC poll is close to Trump's 2020 share in Massachusetts.
• Self-funding. Minogue can outspend most Republican challengers in a deep-blue state.

Key dates

• Thursday, October 15, 2026: final debate, 8–9 p.m. on WCVB, WBUR and the Boston Globe.
• October 17–30, 2026: in-person early voting (hours vary by city and town).
• Saturday, October 24, 2026: deadline to register to vote.
• Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 5 p.m.: deadline to apply for a mail-in ballot.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election, polls open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
• January 2027: the winner takes office.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's Massachusetts market (GOVPARTYMA-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of Massachusetts after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.

If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.