Texas Governor Election OddsTexas Governor Odds: Greg Abbott (R) Leads

The newest poll has the race even. A new ReconMR poll of 617 likely voters, taken October 5–8 and released October 13, has Abbott at 48% and Hinojosa at 47% (margin of error ±4.4 points). In ReconMR's September poll Hinojosa led 49% to 45%. Hinojosa leads 57% to 34% among likely independent voters, Abbott leads by 25 points in rural Texas, and the two are tied at 48% in Dallas–Fort Worth.

Other recent polls point both ways. A YouGov poll of 3,625 registered voters, taken September 28–October 5, had Hinojosa ahead 48% to 47%. A New York Times/Siena poll of 615 likely voters, taken September 21–30, had her up 49% to 46%. Two polls of likely voters had Abbott ahead: Fox News (881 voters, taken September 24–28) at 52% to 47%, and UMass Lowell/YouGov (850 voters, taken September 18–28) at 48% to 44%, according to Newsweek's polling rundown. Those four came out between October 1 and October 8 (USA Today's poll list has each date).

Abbott hasn't agreed to debate. At a San Antonio press conference, Hinojosa renewed her debate challenge, asking him to meet her outside the Governor's Mansion on October 15: "I will come to him to debate." His campaign didn't respond to the San Antonio Current, which reported it on October 9. On October 7, NBC News reported, Latino members of Texas' congressional delegation pressed national Democrats to spend more on Hinojosa's campaign. Early voting runs October 19–30.

The markets make Abbott the favorite. Checked at 3:42 p.m. Eastern on October 14, Abbott's side last traded at 78% on Kalshi, and Polymarket's Republicans-win market sat at 78.05%, the midpoint between its 78¢ bid and 78.1¢ ask. The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 3:42 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Abbott's side last traded at 78¢ (78%) and Hinojosa's at 23¢. On Polymarket, the Republicans-win market's midpoint was 78.05% (78¢ bid, 78.1¢ ask; last trade 78.1¢). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 13, 2026: ReconMR released a poll of 617 likely voters, taken October 5–8, with Abbott ahead 48% to 47% (margin of error ±4.4 points). In September, Hinojosa led ReconMR's poll 49% to 45%. (Source: ReconMR)
• October 9, 2026: the San Antonio Current reported that Hinojosa, at a press conference in San Antonio, challenged Abbott to debate her outside the Governor's Mansion on October 15. Abbott's campaign didn't respond. (Source: San Antonio Current)
• October 8, 2026: UMass Lowell/YouGov released a poll of 850 likely voters, taken September 18–28, with Abbott ahead 48% to 44% (adjusted margin of error ±4.5 points). (Sources: USA Today, Newsweek)
• October 7, 2026: Latino members of Texas' congressional delegation clashed with the Democratic Governors Association over how much it is spending on Hinojosa's campaign. (Source: NBC News)
• October 6, 2026: a YouGov poll of 3,625 registered voters, taken September 28–October 5, had Hinojosa ahead 48% to 47% (margin of error ±3 points). Voters under 45 favored Hinojosa; those 45 and older favored Abbott. (Sources: USA Today, FOX 7 Austin)
• October 3, 2026: a New York Times/Siena poll of 615 likely voters, taken September 21–30, had Hinojosa ahead 49% to 46%. (Sources: USA Today, Newsweek)
• October 1, 2026: a Fox News poll of 881 likely voters, taken September 24–28, had Abbott ahead 52% to 47%. (Sources: USA Today, Newsweek)

The matchup

Abbott, a Republican, has been governor since 2015. Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin, won the Democratic nomination in the March primary. The page for the spring primaries stays as it was; this page covers the general election.

What matters in the race

• Early voting runs October 19–30. In the YouGov poll, Hinojosa led among voters under 45 and Abbott among those 45 and older, so who turns out matters.
• Independents. ReconMR has Hinojosa ahead 57% to 34% among likely independent voters; its analyst says Abbott needs to cut into that lead.
• Name recognition. ReconMR says Hinojosa still has work to do in becoming better known to voters.
• Texas' record. No Democrat has won a race for Texas governor since 1990.

Key dates

• October 19–30, 2026: early voting.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
• January 2027: the winner takes office.

How the markets settle

Kalshi's Texas market (GOVPARTYTX-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of Texas after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.

If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.