Alaska Governor Election OddsAlaska Governor Odds: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Leads

Alaska's governor race got a shake-up on Tuesday. President Trump endorsed Bernadette Wilson on October 13, hours before a rally in Wasilla, writing that "now is the time for all Republicans to unite behind Bernadette." He called her Republican rivals, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor, "lesser" candidates who would only take votes from her. Neither has dropped out. Bronson disputed Trump's account of their talks, saying he had offered to step aside only if Taylor did too. At the rally, Trump also called ranked-choice voting a "scam" and urged a yes vote on Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal Alaska's top-four primary and ranked-choice general election.

The Republican split has been the story of the fall. Bronson and Taylor want conservatives to rank all three Republicans ahead of Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins; at the October 8 Debate for the State, both said they would rank each other second and Wilson third, while Wilson would not name a second choice. The next day, in an interview the Anchorage Daily News reported October 10, Bronson said "we just failed as a party" and called Wilson unfit for office. Kreiss-Tomkins casts the race as a vote on outgoing Gov. Mike Dunleavy's eight years. On pocketbook issues, Wilson and Bronson told an October 7 Juneau business forum they would roll back Alaska's paid sick leave law and the minimum wage increases voters approved in 2024; Kreiss-Tomkins opposes lowering the minimum wage, the Alaska Beacon reported.

Kreiss-Tomkins leads the polls and the money. An Alaska Survey Research poll reported October 6 had him beating Wilson 54% to 46% among likely voters after three rounds of ranked-choice counting. An AARP poll taken in early September had him as first choice for 40% of voters, ahead of Wilson (20%), Bronson (14%) and Taylor (7%). He has raised about $2.1 million since early August, more than his three rivals combined, according to reports posted October 5. The Cook Political Report has shifted the race toward Democrats, citing the split Republican vote.

The markets lean the same way. Checked at 4:40 p.m. Eastern on October 14, Kreiss-Tomkins last traded at 80% on Kalshi (79¢ bid, 80¢ ask), and Polymarket's Kreiss-Tomkins market sat at 76.7%, the midpoint between its 76.6¢ bid and 76.7¢ ask. Wilson was at 20% on Kalshi and 21.5% on Polymarket. The live table on this page updates through the day.

Latest updates

• October 14, 2026 (checked 4:40 p.m. Eastern): on Kalshi, Kreiss-Tomkins last traded at 80¢ (80%) and Wilson at 20¢; Bronson was near 1¢ and Taylor under 1¢. On Polymarket, Kreiss-Tomkins' midpoint was 76.7% (76.6¢ bid, 76.7¢ ask) and Wilson's 21.5% (21¢ bid, 22¢ ask). These are snapshots; the table above shows the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate on each market's page.)
• October 13, 2026: Trump endorsed Wilson on Truth Social before a rally in Wasilla, called Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates, called ranked-choice voting a "scam" and urged a yes vote on Ballot Measure 2. All three Republicans attended. (Sources: Anchorage Daily News, Alaska Beacon)
• October 13, 2026: Bronson said Trump's account was "different from mine" and that a plan for the Republicans to step aside fell apart. He is staying in the race. (Source: Alaska's News Source)
• October 13, 2026: Kreiss-Tomkins, Bronson and Taylor laid out child care plans; Wilson declined to comment for the story. (Source: Alaska Beacon via Alaska Public Media)
• October 10, 2026: the Anchorage Daily News reported that Bronson, in an interview the day before, said "we just failed as a party" and called Wilson "emotionally unfit" for office. Gov. Dunleavy and state Republican chair Carmela Warfield urged voters to "rank them all." (Source: Anchorage Daily News)
• October 8, 2026: all four candidates met in the Debate for the State, hosted by Alaska Public Media, Alaska's News Source and KTOO. The sharpest exchanges were between Wilson and Kreiss-Tomkins. (Source: Alaska Public Media)
• October 7, 2026: at a Juneau Chamber of Commerce forum, Wilson and Bronson backed rolling back the paid sick leave law and the 2024 minimum wage increases. Kreiss-Tomkins backs paid sick leave with possible changes for seasonal work; Taylor skipped the forum and supports amending the sick leave law. (Source: Alaska Beacon, October 9)
• October 6, 2026: an Alaska Survey Research poll was reported with Kreiss-Tomkins ahead of Wilson 54% to 46% among likely voters after three ranked-choice rounds. (Source: Political Wire)
• October 5, 2026: campaign reports were posted showing Kreiss-Tomkins raised about $2.1 million since early August, more than Wilson, Bronson and Taylor combined. (Source: Anchorage Daily News, October 7)

The matchup

This is an open seat: Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. Four candidates came out of the August 18 top-four primary and are on the November ballot: Kreiss-Tomkins (D), Wilson (R), Dave Bronson (R) and Treg Taylor (R). Democrat Tom Begich placed second but withdrew on August 28 to help Kreiss-Tomkins, and Taylor took the fourth spot.

The markets still list Begich and several other people who aren't on the ballot. Some of those prices weren't near zero (Begich has shown as high as 8%), but they aren't a real read on the race, so the table on this page shows only the four candidates on the ballot.

What matters in the race

• Ranked-choice counting. Three Republicans split the conservative vote, and not every Republican voter ranks all three, which helps Kreiss-Tomkins in the later rounds.
• Trump's endorsement. Trump backed Wilson and told the others to get out; Bronson and Taylor are still on the ballot and ask voters to rank all three Republicans.
• Ballot Measure 2. The same ballot asks voters whether to repeal the top-four primary and ranked-choice voting, which Trump urged at his rally.
• Wages and costs. Wilson and Bronson would undo the paid sick leave law and the voter-approved minimum wage increases; all four back the proposed natural gas pipeline to lower energy costs.
• Money. Kreiss-Tomkins raised $2.1 million over eight weeks, more than the Republicans combined.

Key dates

• Monday, October 19, 2026: in-person early voting begins.
• Saturday, October 24, 2026: the state must receive mail-in (absentee) ballot applications by this date.
• Tuesday, November 3, 2026: ranked-choice general election; polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; mailed ballots must be postmarked by Election Day. A candidate with more than half of first choices wins outright; otherwise the last-place candidate is eliminated round by round. Check the Division of Elections for voting places and hours.
• Friday, November 13, 2026: last day for the state to receive mailed ballots sent from within the U.S. (postmarked by November 3).
• Wednesday, November 18, 2026: last day for the state to receive mailed ballots sent from overseas (postmarked by November 3).
• Monday, December 7, 2026: the winner is sworn in at noon.

How the markets settle

Alaska is different from the other governor pages: Kalshi's market (KXGOVAK-26) is candidate by candidate. Each contract pays out Yes if that person is elected governor of Alaska in 2026, so the price is that candidate's own chance.

Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini also list each candidate. They also still list some people who aren't on the ballot; a contract on one of them pays only if that person is elected governor. The table on this page leaves those names out.