Arizona Governor Election OddsArizona Governor Odds: Katie Hobbs (D) Favorite to Win AZ
Early voting opened in Arizona on October 7, and an Equis Research poll released October 6 (taken September 1–9) has Governor Katie Hobbs ahead of Andy Biggs 49% to 43%. Prediction markets make Katie Hobbs (D) the favorite, at 88%.
About 9 in 10 Down 2 pts this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (87%) and Polymarket (89%).
Prices to buy. Polymarket US's quote is stale (observed Aug 27, 10:11 AM ET) and may have moved.
About 1 in 8 Up 2 pts this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (14%) and Polymarket (12%).
Prices to buy. Polymarket US's quote is stale (observed Aug 27, 10:11 AM ET) and may have moved.
Arizona Governor winner?
Kalshi: $7K (69%) · Polymarket: $3K (31%) · Polymarket US: $0 (0%)
Kalshi: Nov 3, 2027
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket: OpenPolymarket US: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's is newer): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 27, 10:11 AM ET and Oct 13, 11:21 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Andy Biggs (R) gained 2 points, to 14%, and Katie Hobbs (D) lost 2 points, to 87%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 12 to Oct 12 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 13, 11:18 AM ET).
The race has turned sharp: Biggs said on October 5 that Hobbs' "predator protector" ads have led to death threats against him, and her campaign called his claims "false and dangerous."
Summer polls gave her a clear lead: HighGround had Hobbs up 49.5% to 34.3% in late August, and Noble Predictive Insights had her ahead 48% to 35%. A Cronkite News review of recent surveys found leads ranging from 15 points to a statistical tie.
The matchup
Hobbs, a Democrat, won the governorship by less than a point in 2022. Biggs, a former leader of the House Freedom Caucus, won the Republican nomination with Trump's endorsement. A No Labels candidate and a Green Party candidate are also on the ballot, polling in the low single digits.
What matters in the race
- Early voting began October 7. Most Arizonans vote early by mail.
- Advertising. Hobbs has dominated the airwaves and has declined to debate Biggs.
- Republican unity. Polls have shown Biggs with only about three-quarters of Republican voters.
Key dates
- October 7, 2026: early voting began.
- Tuesday, November 3, 2026: general election.
- January 2027: the winner takes office.
How the markets settle
Kalshi's Arizona market (GOVPARTYAZ-26) is a party contract. It pays out Yes if a member of that party is inaugurated as governor of Arizona after the 2026 election. Kalshi labels each side with the party's nominee, so the price is the party's chance of winning, not a bet on the person.
If a nominee were replaced before Election Day, the contract would still settle on which party wins. Kalshi can settle early once major news outlets call the race.
Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini each list the same question, who wins the November 3 general election. Margin-of-victory, turnout, county and Senate-plus-governor combo markets are different questions and aren't on this board.
Sources
- Political Wire: Hobbs leads Arizona governor's race (Oct. 8)
- AZFamily: Biggs says Hobbs' ads led to death threats (Oct. 8)
- Hobbs holds double-digit lead (AZFamily)
- AZFamily: early voting starts in Arizona for the November election (Oct. 7)
- Equis Research: Arizona voter research memo, September 2026 (Oct. 6)
GOP Sends $5M to Defend South Carolina as Prediction Markets Still Heavily Favor Graham
Wisconsin Governor Poll Shows a Toss-Up, Kalshi Gives Crowley a 79% Probability
Becerra Refunds Prediction Markets Donations While Leading California Governor Odds
Trump Doubles Down on Mazzei in Oklahoma Governor Runoff After Prediction Markets Missed First Round