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Congress Prediction Market OddsBetting on Congress: Live Prediction Market Odds on Bills, Votes and Shutdowns

108 open questions about what Congress does next. The most traded over the last 24 hours is “Will the SAVE Act become law?”, at 3.9%.

Will the SAVE Act become law?
3.9%Yes

About 1 in 26

$11K trading volume in the last 24 hours (Gemini + Kalshi; Kalshi contracts counted at $1 each, the others in dollars).

Kalshi2.7¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemini5¢

Kalshi shows a last trade; Gemini shows a price to buy. $100 on Gemini at the ask pays $2,000 if correct, before fees.

Compare all prices
How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
72%At least 1

About 7 in 10

$7K trading volume in the last 24 hours (Kalshi + Polymarket; Kalshi contracts counted at $1 each, the others in dollars).

Kalshi64¢Polymarket80¢Polymarket USnot listedGemininot listed

Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $156 if correct, before fees.

Lowest comparable ask: KalshiCompare all prices
Will the federal gas tax be suspended?
12%Yes

About 1 in 8

$5K trading volume in the last 24 hours (Kalshi; contracts counted at $1 each).

Kalshi12¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listed

Last trade; the price to buy may differ. At the last traded price, $100 would return $833 if correct, before fees.

Compare all prices
Reviewed by Data observed
Congress

Every open question, every app

Bills, shutdowns, votes, confirmations and members, as Kalshi files them under Congress. Polymarket and Gemini sit on the same row only when their market is the same question.

Who controls Congress after November →

Our figure averages the apps that show a price. Each app’s price to buy where it has one, else its last trade (marked). Prices are only side by side when the questions are the same: same subject, deadline and rules.

Congress questions: All
QuestionChanceKalshiPolymarketPolymarket USGeminiSources
Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?81%
At last trade, $100 returns $123
Kalshi81¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KX48ETAXCREDIT-26MAYKalshi: KX48ETAXCREDIT-26MAY
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?: Before Nov 1, 2026Before Nov 1, 20261%
At last trade, $100 returns $10,000
Kalshi1¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26NOV01Kalshi: KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26NOV01
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?: Before Dec 1, 2026Before Dec 1, 202612%
At last trade, $100 returns $833
Kalshi12¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26DEC01Kalshi: KXSENATEREC-26JUN-26DEC01
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?: Before Jan 1, 2027Before Jan 1, 202745%
$100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $322
Kalshi31¢Polymarket59¢Polymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXSENATEREC-26JUN-27JAN01Polymarket: 2697988Kalshi: KXSENATEREC-26JUN-27JAN01Polymarket: 2697988
Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law in 2026?42%
$100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $238
Kalshi42¢Polymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXDODRENAME-26JUNKalshi: KXDODRENAME-26JUN
Will cannabis banking insurance protections become law in 2026?9.4%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,063
Kalshi9.4¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXSAFEBANK-27JAN01Kalshi: KXSAFEBANK-27JAN01
Will Max Miller leave the House before the midterms?3%
$100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $3,333
Kalshi3¢Polymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03Kalshi: KXMILLEROUT-26JUL-26NOV03
Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?16%
$100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $625
Kalshi16¢Polymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXKOSA-26-27Kalshi: KXKOSA-26-27
Will Trump impose term limits on Congress?1.4%
At last trade, $100 returns $7,142
Kalshi1.4¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXTERMLIMITS-29Kalshi: KXTERMLIMITS-29
Will the filibuster be weakened?: Before 2027Before 20276.6%
At last trade, $100 returns $1,515
Kalshi6.6¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXFBUSTER-26JAN01-27Kalshi: KXFBUSTER-26JAN01-27
Will the filibuster be weakened?: Before 2028Before 202817%
At last trade, $100 returns $588
Kalshi17¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXFBUSTER-26JAN01-28Kalshi: KXFBUSTER-26JAN01-28
Will the filibuster be weakened?: Before January 20, 2029Before January 20, 202931%
At last trade, $100 returns $322
Kalshi31¢last tradePolymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXFBUSTER-26JAN01-29JAN20Kalshi: KXFBUSTER-26JAN01-29JAN20
When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?: Before Jan 1, 2027Before Jan 1, 202732%
$100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $312
Kalshi32¢Polymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-27JAN01Kalshi: KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-27JAN01
When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?: Before Jul 1, 2027Before Jul 1, 202750%
$100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $200
Kalshi50¢Polymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-27JUL01Kalshi: KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-27JUL01
When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?: Before Jan 1, 2028Before Jan 1, 202875%
$100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $133
Kalshi75¢Polymarketnot listedPolymarket USnot listedGemininot listedKalshi: KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-28JAN01Kalshi: KXAIBIOSECURITY-26SEP-28JAN01

Prices read from each app every 10 minutes. Last read: Kalshi 5:00 AM ET, Polymarket 5:00 AM ET, Gemini 5:00 AM ET. The top cards rank questions by trading volume over the last 24 hours (Oct 6, 09:00 to Oct 7, 09:00 UTC), all apps added together. That is each app’s newest 24-hour volume, so the cards re-rank every 10 minutes as new readings come in. Once a UTC day has closed, they add up daily readings instead, each taken just after midnight UTC, and re-rank once a day. That total is an estimate from those readings, not an exact count of whole days: back-to-back readings can overlap or leave a gap of a few minutes. The apps count volume differently: Kalshi counts each contract at its $1 face value, not the price paid; Polymarket and Gemini report dollars traded. So the totals rank activity; they aren’t dollars spent.

Elsewhere

Only on Polymarket

Congress questions Kalshi doesn’t list, so they have no row above.

Betting on Congress works the same way across prediction market apps, whether the question is a bill, a vote count, a confirmation or a shutdown. Every contract is a yes or no question about something Congress will or will not do by a date. You buy Yes or No at a price between 1¢ and 99¢, the contract pays $1 if you are right and nothing if you are wrong, and the price you pay is the market's probability.

Take the largest contract in the category. On October 7, 2026, Kalshi's "Will the SAVE Act become law?" market traded at 2¢ Yes and 98¢ No, with $14.1 million behind it. If you buy No at 98¢ you tie up 98¢ to make 2¢ when the bill dies. If you buy Yes at 2¢ you risk 2¢ to make 98¢ if it passes. Both traders hold the same position from opposite sides, and the price tells you the crowd gives the bill about a one in fifty shot.

Three rules decide whether you get paid, and each market defines its own version of them.

  • Becomes law means signed: The president signs it or Congress overrides a veto before the contract expires. Passing the House alone counts for nothing. Polymarket's Clarity Act contract is the clean example: it pays Yes only if H.R. 3633 passes both chambers and is signed by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

  • Vote counts settle on final passage only: Committee votes, motions to proceed, cloture votes and amendment votes do not count. A bill can clear cloture 70 to 30 and pass 52 to 48, and only the second number settles the contract.

  • Shutdown contracts check status once a day: Kalshi checks at 10:00 AM ET. A funding bill signed at 11 PM keeps the next day open. One signed at 11 AM does not. This is an important rule.

Open the Rules tab on every market before you trade. The feed above shows you the price. The Rules tab tells you what the price is for.

What our Congress feed covers

The feed pulls every open Congress contract from Kalshi, grouped by the kind of question it asks. Prices below are from publication and move with every trade, so treat them as a snapshot and check the feed for the live number.

  • Bills becoming law: Will the SAVE Act become law? (Yes 2%), Will the Clarity Act become law? (before January 1, 2028: 17%) and Which bills will become law this year?, a single event holding 30 separate contracts led by the Protect College Sports Act at 41%. Each contract in that event stands on its own, so the percentages do not add up to 100.

  • Government shutdown: Government shutdown on December 12, 2026? at 34% Yes. How long a shutdown runs once it starts is a separate set of contracts, covered in the shutdown section below.

  • Policy outcomes that run through Congress: Will the cap on gambling loss deduction be repealed? (before 2028: 52%), Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? (Yes 7%), Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent? (before January 20, 2029: 36%) and Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? (before 2029: 35%). These ask whether the outcome happens, not whether a named bill passes, so a rider on a must-pass package resolves Yes. The gambling deduction market matters most to our readers: the 90% cap on loss deductions arrived in the 2025 reconciliation bill, and the FAIR BET Act is the vehicle traders are watching for a full repeal.

  • Vote counts and individual senators: How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? (above 62: 8%) and Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?, where Josh Hawley sits at 7% and Kirsten Gillibrand at 3%.

  • Confirmations: When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner? (before August 1, 2027: 49%) and When will Brian Johnson be confirmed as CFPB Director? (Yes 91%). The Senate floor vote settles these. Committee advancement does not, and a withdrawn nomination resolves No.

  • Members, party switches and impeachment: Who will switch or leave their party this year? (John Fetterman 11%, Lisa Murkowski 7%), Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? (Yes 3%) and Will a cabinet member be impeached? (before 2028: 61%). A House vote to impeach settles the impeachment contracts; Senate conviction is a separate question.

  • Procedural: How many ties will J.D. Vance break this year? (exactly 2: 30%), When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate? (before January 1, 2027: 31%) and How long will the next FISA authorization be? (at least one year: 45%). These are for readers who follow the floor calendar.

House and Senate control, the generic ballot and individual races are not in this feed. Those sit on our 2026 Midterms odds hub.

Live Congress odds feed renders here.

Government shutdown odds

The next shutdown contract on Kalshi asks whether the government is shut down on December 12, 2026, and on October 7 it traded at 34% Yes and 66% No. That is the market's read on whether Congress gets a funding bill signed before the current stopgap runs out.

The contract is binary and it is literal. Kalshi checks shutdown status at 10:00 AM ET on the contract date. The Rules tab names the official source it reads for a lapse in appropriations. If any lapse is in effect at that moment, Yes pays. A deal signed the night before keeps it No. A deal signed later that morning does not help you.

Two things move this price. The first is the funding deadline itself, which is fixed and public. The second is whether a continuing resolution is on the floor, which you can see on the House majority leader's weekly schedule before it shows up in the price.

Once a shutdown starts, the question changes from whether to how long, and the contracts change with it. Kalshi and Polymarket both run duration ladders, and the two venues disagree more often than you would expect: on the 80-day threshold earlier this year, Kalshi traded at 23% while Polymarket sat at 40% for the same outcome. Our shutdown length tracker shows both side by side with the capture time.

Where to trade Congress markets

Kalshi lists the whole category and is the only venue with every contract type in the feed, so it is the first account to open. Polymarket US gives you a second price on the headline bills and the Senate vote-count ladder. The rest of the lineup either routes Kalshi's politics contracts through its own app or carries a short list of the biggest questions.

Operator

Congress coverage

Best for

Review and promo

Kalshi

Every contract in the feed: bills, date ladders, vote counts, individual senators, shutdown, confirmations, party switches, impeachment, procedural

Depth. The SAVE Act and Clarity Act books are the two largest in the category, and Kalshi pays interest on cash sitting in long-dated positions

Kalshi promo code

Polymarket US

Clarity Act signed into law, Senate vote-count ladder from over 50 through over 68, shutdown duration

A second price on the bills that matter. Thin on procedural and member-level questions

Polymarket promo code

Robinhood

Kalshi politics contracts inside the Robinhood app

Readers who already hold a brokerage account and want one login

Robinhood promo code

Gemini Predictions

Headline politics questions; check the app for current Congress listings

Crypto-native readers who already fund a Gemini account

Gemini promo code

Availability differs by state on every operator. Our state guides list what each one offers where you live.

How to place your first Congress trade

  1. Open an account through the operator link above and complete identity verification. This takes a few minutes with a government ID.

  2. Deposit. Our review pages list the current funding methods and minimums for each operator.

  3. Open the Politics tab and filter to Congress, or search the bill name directly.

  4. Read the Rules tab. Note the expiry date, the settlement source and what counts as the trigger.

  5. Choose Yes or No and enter a limit order at the price you want rather than hitting the market price. Most Congress books are thin enough that a market order moves against you.

  6. Hold or sell. You can exit any time before expiry at the current price, or let the contract settle and collect $1 per correct contract.

Fees are charged per trade and differ by operator. Both Kalshi and Polymarket US publish a fee schedule, and the trade ticket shows the fee before you confirm.

How to read a Congress market before you trade

Most of the money sits on No

Most bills die, and the prices say so. Eight of the 23 headline Congress markets on Kalshi priced their leading Yes below 10% on October 7, 2026. If you want to back the obvious outcome you are buying No at 90¢ or more, and the contract may not settle for a year. A 98¢ No on the SAVE Act returns about 2% at expiry in January 2027. Put that against the interest your operator pays on idle cash and the edge is smaller than the 98% figure suggests.

The same question can and will trades at different prices

On the shutdown duration ladder, Kalshi and Polymarket were 17 points apart on the 80-day threshold at one point this year. Some of that is liquidity. Some of it is resolution language, because the two venues do not always define the trigger the same way. Read both Rules tabs before you treat a gap as free money.

Liquidity inside the category runs from millions to hundreds

The SAVE Act contract has over $14 million behind it. The Senate vote-count market for the American Affordability and Jobs Act had $447. A 100-contract order disappears into the first book and sets the price in the second. Check the order book depth before you place anything, and use limit orders on every market that is not one of the top five by volume.

Price moves come from the floor calendar, not the news

Congress contracts react to cloture filings, Rules Committee meetings, whip counts and the signing schedule, and all of those are published before they happen. Three bookmarks cover it: congress.gov for bill status and roll calls, the Senate executive calendar for confirmation votes, and the House majority leader's weekly floor schedule for what is coming to a vote. If a court ruling could change which contracts stay listed, our litigation tracker has the current state of each case.

FAQ

Can you bet on Congress?

Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket US both run under CFTC oversight and list contracts on bills, votes, confirmations and shutdowns. You buy Yes or No on a question, and the contract pays $1 if you are right. Availability depends on your state, so check the state guide for where you live before you open an account.

What are the odds of a government shutdown?

34% on October 7, 2026, for a shutdown in effect on December 12, 2026, according to Kalshi. The number moves as the funding deadline gets closer and as a continuing resolution does or does not reach the floor. The feed above carries the live price.

What does "becomes law" mean on a prediction market?

Signed by the president or passed over a veto before the contract expires. A bill that passes the House, or passes the Senate, or sits on the president's desk at expiry resolves No. Each market's Rules tab names the exact bill number and date.

Do cloture votes count toward vote-count contracts?

No. Vote-count contracts settle on the roll call for final passage in the full chamber. Cloture votes, motions to proceed, amendment votes and committee votes do not count, even when the margin is the same.

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Source: Gemini / Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 7, 3:30 AM ET.