Kalshi Favors Hegseth Impeachment, but Traders Are Less Sure He’ll Leave Office

Traders expect the House to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

They are considerably less convinced that he will lose his job before the year ends.

Kalshi’s contract for impeachment before January 1 is at 80%, after Rep. Thomas Massie moved Monday to force a House vote. That is below the 86% highlighted in the exchange’s Tuesday news release on the issue, but still makes impeachment the clear market favorite.

Polymarket’s contract asking whether Hegseth will be out as defense secretary by December 31 is at 46%, with approximately $2.18 million traded.

A House impeachment would formally accuse Hegseth of wrongdoing. It would not itself remove him. Conviction requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate, a substantially higher threshold than the simple House majority needed to impeach.

That distinction is the central story in the prices: Traders see a plausible bipartisan House rebuke, but a less certain route from that vote to Hegseth’s departure.

Massie forces the issue after the midterms

Massie, a Kentucky Republican, introduced a privileged impeachment resolution Monday, setting up House action this week. NBC reported Tuesday that a vote could come as early as that evening, according to the floor schedule. That timing does not guarantee a final vote approving the articles; procedural action can affect how the House handles the resolution.

The effort arrives immediately after an election that handed Democrats control of the next House and Senate and intensified Republican criticism of the Iran war. The current Republican-controlled Congress remains in office until the new Congress begins in January.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries supports impeachment. ABC News reported that, if all Democrats support the resolution, three Republican votes would be enough to pass it under the current House arithmetic.

But announced support is not yet a completed vote count. Massie told reporters Monday that no other House Republican had committed to supporting his effort.

He previously attempted to bring impeachment articles forward in September. Speaker Mike Johnson sent lawmakers home until after the midterms, delaying consideration. Johnson denied that the recess decision was related to Massie’s measure.

Eight articles allege unlawful military actions and abuse of authority

Massie’s resolution contains eight articles. Three concern the Iran war, alleging that Hegseth participated in unauthorized hostilities, continued them after Congress directed withdrawal and disregarded the War Powers Resolution’s deadlines.

The remaining articles allege:

• Failure to follow laws intended to minimize civilian casualties.
• Extrajudicial killings involving strikes on suspected drug traffickers.
• Retaliation against Sen. Mark Kelly over protected speech.
• Unlawful seizure of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores in Venezuela.
• Unauthorized military action in Yemen. 1431

The New York Times reported that Johnson would determine whether the House considered the eight articles individually or as a package.

Hegseth rejected the effort at a Pentagon press conference Tuesday, describing it as “a political spectacle, a personal manifesto driven by ego and resentment.” He argued that Massie’s objections were policy disagreements rather than impeachable offenses.

Impeachment is not removal

A House majority can impeach Hegseth without securing the Senate votes needed to convict him.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, and conviction would require 67 votes if all 100 senators vote. Reuters reported that conviction appears unlikely under that composition, even as congressional sources suggested the House resolution could have enough support to pass.

Departure is also broader than conviction. Hegseth could resign or be dismissed without a Senate conviction, while an impeached secretary could remain in office if the Senate does not convict him.

That makes the markets complementary rather than interchangeable. A trader can consistently expect impeachment while also expecting Hegseth to remain defense secretary through December.

The deadlines reinforce the distinction. A year-end contract concerns the remaining weeks of the current Congress. An impeachment contract extending into April or July includes time after Democrats take control of the House.

The next test is the House, not the market price

The immediate developments to watch are how Johnson handles the resolution, whether Republicans join Democrats and whether the House approves any articles.

Kalshi’s 80% price reflects a strong expectation that impeachment will happen before January.

For now, the clearest market judgment is also the most important distinction: impeachment looks considerably more likely than departure. The House can deliver the first outcome without producing the second.