Commanders vs. 49ers Prediction, Odds & Spread: MNF Week 6The 49ers Have a 78% Chance to Beat the Commanders
The 49ers put their 5-0 start on the line on Monday Night Football, fresh off a 32-29 win in Seattle, but without pass rusher Nick Bosa (calf). Washington arrives 1-3-1 after a 27-27 overtime tie with the Giants and without receiver Stefon Diggs (hamstring). San Francisco has a 78% chance to win. Kalshi has the spread at 49ers −7.5 with the total at 50.5.
About 4 in 5 (−345)
Polymarket shows a last trade; Kalshi and Polymarket US and Gemini show a price to buy. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $128 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 4 (+345)
Polymarket shows a last trade; Kalshi and Polymarket US and Gemini show a price to buy. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $444 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Best price to buy
Fees included- Kalshi7% fee · bid 77¢79.2¢78¢ + fee$126per $100
- Polymarket USBest price6.95% fee · bid 77.5¢79¢77.8¢ + fee$127per $100
Ranked by price with each venue’s taker fee on one contract. Polymarket’s international site isn’t open to US traders, so it’s never marked best.
Markets’ projected final
From the spread & totalThe 49ers by 7.7 with 50.5 total points: the lines Kalshi’s spread and total markets price at even odds. Before the game: SF -7.5, total 50.5.
Commanders vs. 49ers moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team, or the last trade where no one is selling. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and 1 more.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Gemini | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ersHome · −345 | 78% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $128 | Kalshi78¢ | Polymarket US77.8¢ | Polymarket78¢last trade | Gemini78¢ | |
| Washington CommandersAway · +345 | 22% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $444 | Kalshi23¢ | Polymarket US22.5¢ | Polymarket23¢last trade | Gemini23¢ |
Best prices to buy: San Francisco at 77.8¢ on Polymarket US; Washington at 22.5¢ on Polymarket US. Buying both costs $1.002 for a $1 payout, so there's no arbitrage. Traded in the past 24 hours: $34K on Kalshi, $2K on Polymarket US and $99 on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; Polymarket's displayed price; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / Gemini via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 13, 2:12 PM and 2:30 PM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, San Francisco held within a point, at 78%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Oct 6 to Oct 12 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Commanders vs. 49ers spread and over/under
Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini price a ladder of margins and totals: tap a price to buy that line. The line closest to a coin flip is tagged.
All 27 spread lines
All 19 total lines
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Polymarket US lists one team’s spread both ways: an underdog line there is bought as No on the favorite’s line. Source: Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 13, 1:35 PM and 2:31 PM ET.
Live at kickoff
8:15 PM- Every play, with how the price moved on it
- The win chance, play by play, against ESPN’s model
- Live best prices on each venue, fees included
- Big bets as they land, and the money behind each side
- Quarter winners and player props as they settle
This page turns live by itself at kickoff; there’s no need to refresh.
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