Bills vs. Raiders Prediction, Odds & Spread: Week 6The Bills Have a Chance of 69% to Beat the Raiders
Buffalo is 4-1 after outlasting the Rams 37-34 in overtime on Monday Night Football. The Bills now head to Las Vegas for a Sunday afternoon Week 6 showdown. The Raiders are now 3-2 after being routed 45-17 at New England. The Bills have a 69% chance to win. Kalshi has the spread at Bills −4.5, with a projected total of 53.5 points.
About 7 in 10 (−218)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $146 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 3 (+220)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $322 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Best price to buy
Fees included- Kalshi7% fee · bid 68¢70.5¢69¢ + fee$142per $100
- Polymarket USBest price6.95% fee · bid 68¢69.8¢68.3¢ + fee$143per $100
- PolymarketOutside US5% fee · bid 68¢70.1¢69¢ + fee$143per $100
Ranked by price with each venue’s taker fee on one contract. Polymarket’s international site isn’t open to US traders, so it’s never marked best.
Markets’ projected final
From the spread & totalThe Bills by 4.9 with 53.7 total points: the lines Kalshi’s spread and total markets price at even odds. Before the game: BUF -5.5, total 53.5.
Bills vs. Raiders moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket and 1 more.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Gemini | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo BillsAway · −218 | 69% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $146 | Kalshi69¢ | Polymarket US68.3¢ | Polymarket69¢ | Gemini70¢ | |
| Las Vegas RaidersHome · +220 | 31% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $322 | Kalshi31¢ | Polymarket US32¢ | Polymarket32¢ | Gemini32¢ |
Best prices to buy: Buffalo at 68.3¢ on Polymarket US; Las Vegas at 31¢ on Kalshi. Buying both costs 99.3¢ and pays $1 whichever team wins: 0.75¢ locked in, before fees. Traded in the past 24 hours: $34K on Kalshi, $7K on Polymarket US and $2K on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: OpenGemini: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask; the midpoint of Gemini's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / Gemini via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 13, 4:00 PM and 4:02 PM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Buffalo held within a point, at 69%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Oct 6 to Oct 12 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Bills vs. Raiders spread and over/under
Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini price a ladder of margins and totals: tap a price to buy that line. The line closest to a coin flip is tagged.
All 27 spread lines
All 19 total lines
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Polymarket US lists one team’s spread both ways: an underdog line there is bought as No on the favorite’s line. Source: Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 13, 3:04 PM and 4:02 PM ET.
Live at kickoff
4:25 PM- Every play, with how the price moved on it
- The win chance, play by play, against ESPN’s model
- Live best prices on each venue, fees included
- Big bets as they land, and the money behind each side
- Quarter winners and player props as they settle
This page turns live by itself at kickoff; there’s no need to refresh.
NFL Week 6 games 11 games
- Thu 8:15 PM ETSEA SeahawksDEN BroncosSEA 58%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETCAR PanthersPHI EaglesPHI 51%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETCHI BearsATL FalconsCHI 62%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETNO SaintsNYG GiantsNO 51%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETPIT SteelersTB BuccaneersPIT 56%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETTEN TitansIND ColtsIND 75%
- Sun 4:05 PM ETARI CardinalsLAR RamsLAR 88%
- Sun 4:25 PM ETThis gameBUF BillsLV RaidersBUF 69%
- Sun 4:25 PM ETLAC ChargersKC ChiefsKC 79%
- Sun 8:20 PM ETDAL CowboysGB PackersGB 53%
- Mon 8:15 PM ETWAS CommandersSF 49ersSF 78%
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