Colom and Peltola Top 94% as Two Senate Races Remain Uncalled

Two days after Election Day, traders are treating Mississippi and Alaska as likely Democratic Senate pickups.

The reported vote totals are much less decisive as traders pour money into the contracts, even though they no longer matter to the overall Senate control conversation, which Democrats overwhelmingly won Tuesday night.

Kalshi traders are forecasting Democrat Scott Colom at 95.6% in Mississippi, with $29.4 million traded, as of Thursday morning. Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith had been an 85% favorite heading into the election.

In Alaska, Mary Peltola is at 94.1%, with $24.5 million traded, up from her 70% probability entering Election Day. Unlike Mississippi, that is a strengthening of the pre-election favorite rather than a reversal.

Neither race had been projected in CNN’s Thursday morning reporting. Both could require additional days of counting, with Alaska potentially awaiting ranked-choice tabulation later this month.

The contrast is another reminder that market confidence, a candidate’s lead and an election call are separate things.

Mississippi: an 85% Republican favorite becomes a Democratic underdog

Mississippi is the more dramatic change.

Colom led Hyde-Smith by just 1,138 votes in Thursday morning results: 464,926 to 463,788.

That puts the Democrat at approximately 49.0% and the Republican at 48.9%, with about 96% of the expected vote reported. Independent Ty Pinkins had 2.1%. 1328

A 95.6% market probability therefore does not describe anything close to Colom’s vote share or margin. It expresses traders’ assessment of his chances of eventually winning from that position.

Colom, an elected district attorney in eastern Mississippi, is challenging an incumbent who has served in the Senate since 2018. The close result is striking in a state that Republicans ordinarily expect to hold comfortably.

There were late signs of concern. President Donald Trump campaigned for Hyde-Smith in Mississippi on Oct. 26, saying, “I can’t take a chance.”

Democratic Senate Majority PAC also announced a $1.2 million advertising campaign supporting Colom in the closing stretch.

Even so, traders continued to favor the Republican before returns began arriving. A Colom victory would make Mississippi another example of the markets identifying the overall Democratic direction without fully anticipating how far it would extend.

That remains conditional: The race is not over.

Affidavit ballots could decide Mississippi

The outstanding ballots matter more than the headline estimate of “96% counted” might suggest.

CNN reported that the contest could turn on approximately 15,000 provisional ballots, known in Mississippi as affidavit ballots. That estimate came from Colom’s campaign, and not every provisional ballot necessarily qualifies for inclusion in the final count.

Some voters must provide the required identification within five business days, by November 10, for their ballots to count. Verification means the number of eligible ballots and their distribution between candidates remain important uncertainties.

The New York Times warned that the result might not be known until Nov. 10. Local reporting, citing the secretary of state’s office, places the county certification deadline at Nov. 13.

With only 1,138 votes separating the candidates, relatively small changes in the outstanding count could matter. The market’s strong preference for Colom does not remove that arithmetic.

Alaska: Peltola’s market strengthens while the count stays tight

Alaska presents a different forecasting story.

Peltola was already favored before Election Day. Her rise from 70% to 94.1% means traders have become considerably more confident as results arrive, not that they have discovered an entirely unexpected Democratic contender.

The latest reviewed NBC results put Peltola ahead 102,962 votes to 102,325 for Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, a margin of 637 votes. That is approximately 48.2% to 47.9%, with neither candidate above 50%. NBC still described the race as too early to call.

Reporting Thursday morning put the estimated vote count at 75%. More ballots remain outstanding, including votes from remote communities, and that estimate can change.

Peltola, Alaska’s former U.S. House member, had already demonstrated statewide support before November. She led Sullivan 49.5% to 41.4% in the August top-four primary, although a primary result does not determine the general-election outcome.

Her current market price is an assessment of the eventual winner, not a claim that her present first-choice lead is insurmountable.

Ranked-choice voting adds another stage

Alaska’s reported totals currently reflect first-choice preferences.

If no candidate finishes with more than 50%, the state eliminates the lowest-finishing candidate and transfers ballots to voters’ next remaining choices. That process repeats until a candidate has a majority of the continuing ballots.

The ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, with certification scheduled for Nov. 25. Outstanding ballots could still change whether a ranked-choice round is necessary.

The ballot includes incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, a separate candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald Heikes. Voters’ rankings beyond the first choice could therefore become consequential in a contest separated by hundreds of votes.

A market can attempt to anticipate those transfers. The public first-choice tally, however, does not establish where they will go.

These markets are updating, not certifying the result

The two races illustrate different uses of prediction markets after Election Day.

In Mississippi, traders have largely abandoned a Republican they favored before voting ended. In Alaska, they have strengthened their position behind the Democrat they already expected to win.

Both are legitimate updates to new information. Neither should be confused with proof that the original forecasts were accurate, or that the current probabilities cannot be wrong.

Outstanding-ballot geography, expected voting patterns and ranked-choice transfers may influence their positions.

The immediate question is resolution: which outstanding ballots qualify, how they divide and, in Alaska, whether ranked-choice transfers are required. Until those processes produce enough evidence for a projection, a market above 94% remains a strong expectation, not a settled Senate seat.