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US Elections stories
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- Prediction Markets Put Donalds on Track for Easy Florida Governor Win
Prediction markets make Rep. Byron Donalds the clear favorite in Florida's Republican governor primary and price the November race as a Republican hold.
- Prediction Markets Favor Hong in Wisconsin Governor Primary as Progressive Wave Faces a Redder State Test
Francesca Hong leads Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary, but unlike New York and Colorado, the state is a battleground where a progressive nominee may struggle.
- Platner’s Scandal Upends Maine Senate Race, But Prediction Markets Still Favor Democrats
The Maine Senate race received bombshell news Monday, but prediction markets for Senate party winner have barely moved off Democrats.
- AOC Boosts El-Sayed on Prediction Markets as Michigan Senate Primary Clears Up
Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate bid got a major lift from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s endorsement, while Mallory McMorrow’s exit further narrowed the Democratic primary field ahead of August 4.
- Senate Control in Play as Polls Tighten, Prediction Markets Send Mixed Messages
A new round of polling shows the 2026 Senate map is genuinely up for grabs, with Democrats putting several GOP-held seats in play and both prediction markets still giving Republicans a slight edge.
- Prediction Markets Nail Progressive Wave in Colorado Primary Races
Prediction markets largely called Colorado's primaries, catching the progressive wave behind Phil Weiser and Melat Kiros, while the state stays safely blue for November.
- Prediction Markets Still Favor Paxton as Talarico Turns Texas Senate Into Real Race
While a new poll fuels momentum of Democrat James Talarico and suggests the race for the Texas Senate seat could be competitive, prediction markets haven’t wavered from Republican Ken Paxton.
- Louisiana Adds to Trump, Prediction Markets Senate Win Streak
Prediction markets nailed another Trump-endorsed Senate primary win, despite struggles in governor races and a tight first round.
- Prediction Markets Suggest Progressive Wave Hits Colorado House Primary
Longtime Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette faces her toughest primary yet from Melat Kiros, and prediction markets point toward an upset.
- Weiser Surges in Colorado Governor Primary as Prediction Markets Turn on Bennet
Prediction markets flipped late toward Attorney General Phil Weiser over Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado's Democratic governor primary.
- Prediction Markets Still Favor Letlow In Heated Louisiana Senate Runoff
Louisiana’s GOP Senate runoff is tightening on the ground, with John Fleming gaining ground on prediction markets favorite Julia Letlow.
- Prediction Markets Nail Wilson’s South Carolina Governor Runoff Blowout
Prediction markets correctly called Alan Wilson’s South Carolina GOP governor runoff blowout, as he turned an initial primary deficit into a decisive win after Pamela Evette led round one.
- Prediction Markets Nail New York as Mamdani’s Slate Sweeps House Primaries
In several high profile Democratic primaries for New York House seats, prediction markets nailed the results before Tuesday’s vote.
- Prediction Markets Treat New York House Primaries as Wrapped
Despite close polling, prediction markets are treating some New York House primaries as done deals.
- Prediction Markets Put Wilson Over 90% as Evette’s South Carolina Governor Bid Unravels
After Trump also endorsed Alan Wilson, prediction markets swung sharply to him over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette ahead of South Carolina's Republican governor runoff.
- California Billionaire Tax Qualifies for Ballot, Prediction Markets Still Bet Against It
The ballot push for a California billionaire tax has cleared one hurdle, but prediction markets still think it is a long shot.
- Alabama Senate Runoff Gives Trump, Prediction Markets Another Easy Senate Primary Win
Prediction markets notched another Senate primary win tailing a Trump-endorsed candidate in Alabama.
- Prediction Markets Miss On Another Trump Pick in Oklahoma
Prediction markets strongly backed Mike Mazzei for Oklahoma governor heading into Tuesday, where he placed second to force a runoff.
- Georgia Runoffs Offer Split Result For Prediction Markets
Prediction markets followed President Trump’s endorsements heading into runoff elections, ending up with split results.
- Prediction Markets Reverse Course in South Carolina Governor Runoff
Markets that favored Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette before South Carolina's first round have flipped to Attorney General Alan Wilson ahead of the Republican governor runoff.