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- Prediction Markets Treat Blackburn As Lock In Tennessee GOP Governor Primary, New Poll Suggests Three-Way Race
Kalshi and Polymarket treat Sen. Marsha Blackburn as a near-certain winner of Tennessee's Republican governor primary, while a new poll shows a three-way race.
- Prediction Markets Still Favor Graham Nordone In Crowded South Carolina GOP Senate Primary After Debates
Sen. Darline Graham Nordone remains the favorite in a 10-way special primary to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. She’s trading at 63% on Kalshi with about $4 million in volume.
- El-Sayed Survives Michigan Primary, Prediction Markets Still Think He Wins In November
Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary far more narrowly than markets priced, and Democrats are only modest favorites against Republican Mike Rogers.
- Prediction Markets Not Buying Progressive Wave In Missouri Comeback Bid
Former Rep. Cori Bush is trying to win back Missouri's 1st District, but traders favor incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell, suggesting limits to the progressive wave.
- Prediction Markets Suggest Landslides In Michigan Primaries As Progressive Wave Is Put to Test in a Must-Win Senate Seat
Abdul El-Sayed is the overwhelming favorite in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, a test of whether the progressive wave can hold a battleground seat in November.
- Prediction Markets Suggesting Kansas Primaries Are Mostly Routs, But the Governor Race Still Offers a Measure of Red-State Drift
Markets see Sen. Roger Marshall's reelection as safe, making the governor race the more interesting Kansas contest as Democrats try to hold the office.
- Obama Backs Turek In Iowa Senate Race, Prediction Markets Still Weary of Democratic Chances
Barack Obama endorsed Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa's open Senate race, but prediction markets still lean toward Republican Ashley Hinson despite tightening polls.
- Prediction Markets Lenghten El-Sayed Lead For Michigan Democratic Senate Primary After Debate With Stevens
Abdul El-Sayed enters the final week before Michigan's Democratic Senate primary with a commanding lead on Kalshi and Polymarket after his debate with Rep. Haley Stevens.
- Prediction Markets Stay Blue As Democrats Pick Jackson In Maine Senate Race
Former state Senate President Troy Jackson is now Maine's Democratic Senate nominee after Graham Platner's exit, and markets still lean toward a Democratic pickup.
- Prediction Markets Heavily Favor James, Benson in Michigan Governor Primaries
Prediction markets have James at over 80% to win the GOP nod for Michigan governor, while they’re trading at over 90% for Benson on the Democratic side.
- Kalshi Turns Election Markets Into New Midterm Forecasting Hub
Kalshi's new Midterms Hub combines live House, Senate and governor market odds with maps, projected seats, polling and campaign-finance data.
- Trump Backs Graham Nordone as She Takes Predictions Markets Lead in South Carolina GOP Senate Scramble
After Trump's endorsement, interim Sen. Darline Graham Nordone moved ahead of Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman in markets for South Carolina's Republican Senate primary.
- Prediction Markets Big On Biggs Heading Into Arizona Republican Governor Primary
Markets make Andy Biggs a near-certain winner of Arizona's Republican governor primary, but price Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs as the clear favorite in November.
- Prediction Markets Price Jackson as Clear Favorite in Maine as Democrats Keep Edge Over Collins
After a Thursday debate, Troy Jackson has surged to the front of Maine’s Democratic replacement race, and prediction markets are now pricing him at approximately 90% to win the nomination.
- Sen. Mitch McConnell’s Hospitalization Fuels Exit Speculation, but Prediction Markets Speculate He Stays
Sen. Mitch McConnell's latest hospitalization has revived questions about whether he can finish his term, but prediction markets give a resignation a low chance.
- Prediction Markets Tighten On Michigan Democratic Senate Primary as Stevens Pushes El-Sayed in Tossup State
Abdul El-Sayed still leads Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary race, but his peak prediction market chances of 87% have dropped down into the 60s as Rep. Haley Stevens closes the gap.
- South Dakota Set For First-Ever Governor Runoff as Prediction Markets Favor the Incumbent
Gov. Larry Rhoden and businessman Toby Doeden meet in South Dakota's first governor primary runoff, and Kalshi favors Rhoden even as polls reportedly show a tie.
- Fry Surges in South Carolina GOP Senate Scramble as Prediction Markets Keep Republicans Favored
Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Lindsey Graham's sister to the interim seat, and Rep. Russell Fry leads markets for the special primary as Republicans stay favored.
- Graham’s Death Triggers South Carolina GOP Scramble, Prediction Markets Still See Red Senate Seat
Lindsey Graham's death set off races for an interim appointment and a November special election, and prediction markets still strongly favor Republicans to hold the seat.
- Platner Exit Scrambles Maine Senate Race, Prediction Markets Still Give Democrats Narrow Edge
Democrats keep a narrow edge in Maine's Senate race after Graham Platner's exit as the party seeks a replacement to face Sen. Susan Collins, with Troy Jackson an early favorite.