2026 California Governor OddsXavier Becerra is the clear favorite at 98%

Polls are open in California today, and the markets still see almost no path for Hilton. Checked at 7:11 a.m. Eastern on November 3, Becerra last traded at 97.1% on Kalshi (97¢ bid, 97.1¢ ask), down from 97.4% on November 2, and Polymarket's Becerra market sat at 97.9%, down from 98.6%. On Polymarket US, Becerra was still 97¢ bid, 98¢ ask and Hilton 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask. Hilton was at 3% on Kalshi. Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific, which is 11 p.m. Eastern, according to 270toWin's poll closing times list. Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US and Gemini all keep trading live as results come in tonight, and each market settles on the official result. California counts mail ballots for weeks, so the final tally will take time even if the race is called early.

The final polls point the same way. A Berkeley IGS poll for the Los Angeles Times, taken October 19–25, had Becerra ahead of Hilton 61% to 34% among likely voters, and SurveyUSA (October 19–24) had him up 54% to 32%, according to PollCheck's poll list. Its November 2 average had Becerra at 57.2% and Hilton at 35.6%.

The matchup was set in June. California’s June 2 top-two primary is certified. Democrat Xavier Becerra finished first with 2,591,857 votes (28.0%), Republican Steve Hilton finished second with 2,277,318 (24.6%), and Democrat Tom Steyer finished third with 2,110,707 (22.8%). Becerra and Hilton advanced to the November 3 general election to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom. See California’s certified Statement of Vote.

Our June 11, 2026 report traced how Becerra and Hilton emerged from the primary; the primary result is settled, while the live board tracks the separate November contest.

The live tracker above is now focused on the general-election winner market. DeFi Rate aggregates pricing from first-party exchange data; because venue volume measures are not always calculated on the same basis, use the venue-level figures rather than treating them as one combined editorial total.

California governor general election: Becerra vs. Hilton

Xavier Becerra (D) is the former US secretary of health and human services and a former California attorney general. He finished first in the certified primary with 2,591,857 votes (28.0%) and entered the general election as the clear prediction-market favorite.

Steve Hilton (R) is a former policy adviser and television host. He finished second with 2,277,318 votes (24.6%), securing the Republican spot on the November ballot. His market price remains well behind Becerra’s, but the live odds above will continue to respond to polling, endorsements, fundraising and campaign developments.

Tom Steyer (D) finished third with 2,110,707 votes (22.8%) and did not advance.

California general election markets

The June 2 primary determined California’s November matchups. Certified top-two pairings referenced on this page include:

• Governor: Xavier Becerra (D) vs. Steve Hilton (R)
• Lieutenant governor: Fiona Ma (D) vs. Gloria Romero (R)
• CA-04: Mike Thompson (D) vs. Eric Jones (D)
• CA-08: John Garamendi (D) vs. Rudy Recile (R)
• CA-11: Scott Wiener (D) vs. Connie Chan (D)
• CA-13: Adam Gray (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R)
• CA-17: Ro Khanna (D) vs. Ritesh Tandon (R)
• CA-22: David Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)
• CA-40: Ken Calvert (R) vs. Young Kim (R)

California proposition odds cover the separate statewide ballot measures decided alongside these candidate races.

See the California Secretary of State’s certified lieutenant governor results and US House results. Exchange inventory changes as venues list, close or settle individual markets, so check each contract’s question, deadline and resolution rules before trading.

Related markets

• 2028 Presidential Election Odds — Track the broader field for the next presidential election.
• 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds — Follow the Democratic nomination market.
• 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds — Follow the Republican nomination market.
• California Wealth Tax Odds — Track the separate California ballot-measure market.

Where to trade California election markets

The DeFi Rate governor feed compares mapped contracts from Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US and Gemini Predictions. Platform access and candidate inventory can vary by user and jurisdiction.

For an election-focused platform comparison, review political betting sites on race coverage, fees and access.

• Kalshi lists candidate contracts for the California governor winner market.
• Polymarket Global lists a global California governor election market.
• Polymarket US lists US-market contracts for Becerra and Hilton.
• Gemini Predictions provides additional candidate pricing represented in the DeFi Rate comparison when mapped and available.

For a broader comparison of platforms, funding methods and California availability, see our California prediction markets guide.

How these markets resolve

California governor winner: Candidate contracts resolve according to the rules published by each exchange for the November 3 general election. Traders should read the named resolution source, deadline and any recount or delayed-certification provisions on the specific contract.

Top-two primary advance: These contracts are resolved. A candidate’s Yes contract paid out if that candidate finished in the top two and advanced to November; Becerra and Hilton were the two successful outcomes.

Primary party composition: This market resolved to one Democrat and one Republican based on the two advancing candidates.

Key dates

• June 2, 2026 — California held its top-two primary. Becerra and Hilton advanced, and the primary advance and party-composition markets resolved.
• July 10, 2026 — The California Secretary of State certified the primary Statement of Vote.
• October 5, 2026 — California counties began mailing vote-by-mail ballots for the general election.
• November 3, 2026 — General Election Day. See the California Secretary of State election page for official deadlines and voting information.

Market integrity and candidate trading

Kalshi previously sanctioned former governor candidate Kyle Langford after he traded on his own race, imposing a five-year trading ban and a $2,000 fine. The case remains a useful reminder that candidates and people with material nonpublic information can face exchange restrictions. Review each venue’s eligibility and prohibited-trading rules before participating.

What the California race could mean for 2028

The next governor will inherit one of the country’s largest state economies and a nationally visible office. The result could affect how both parties discuss California ahead of 2028, but this page’s live pricing is limited to the 2026 governor race. Use the related presidential trackers above for current 2028 probabilities. See how this contest fits into the national map on our 2026 midterms page.