Raman Overtakes Bass in LA Mayor Prediction Markets as $98M Trades on Kalshi

Nithya Raman has taken the lead in the Los Angeles mayor’s race, not just in a new poll, but in one of the most heavily traded political markets on Kalshi.

The city council member is priced at 60% to win on Kalshi, where $98 million has traded on the contest. She overtook incumbent Mayor Karen Bass last week after a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll put Raman ahead 39% to 28%.

Polymarket shows nearly identical odds, with $14.7 million in volume.

It is a sharp reversal from the June primary, when Bass finished first with 34%, and Raman came second with 29%. But the poll’s other major finding warns against calling the November race early: 33% of likely voters remain undecided.

The poll moves the market

The Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times survey, conducted Sept. 15-20 among 2,150 likely city voters, gives Raman her widest published lead over Bass so far. Its margin of error is about three percentage points. Bass’ campaign has dismissed the result as an outlier.

Prediction markets have nevertheless moved decisively. A 60% price makes Raman the favorite, though it still leaves Bass with a substantial chance of winning. The similarity between Kalshi and Polymarket is notable, though trading volume differs by more than sixfold.

The polling suggests why Raman has gained ground. She leads strongly among younger likely voters, including 66% of voters ages 18-29 and 64% of those ages 30-39.

Bass leads among voters 65 and older. The mayor also faces difficult approval numbers: 63% of respondents viewed her unfavorably, and 56% rated her response to the 2025 Palisades fire poor or very poor.

Those numbers give Raman an opening to turn the election into a judgment on Bass’ management of City Hall. They do not yet show where the undecided third of the electorate will land.

The Spencer Pratt wildcard

Some of those undecided voters have a clear origin: reality television star Spencer Pratt's primary campaign.

Pratt won 26% in June, finishing behind Bass and Raman but drawing voters angry over the Palisades fire, which destroyed his home. In the new poll, 63% of his primary supporters had not chosen between the two finalists. Among those who had, Bass narrowly led Raman, 22% to 16%.

That makes the runoff more complicated than a simple progressive-versus-moderate contest.

Raman can lead among voters already committed to one of the finalists and still lose if Bass wins enough of the much larger uncommitted pool. Conversely, the primary result shows Bass cannot count on her first-place finish to carry her through November.

Raman’s progressive balancing act

Raman has the endorsement of the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, while Bass draws more support from the city’s established Democratic and labor organizations. But Raman is trying to make clear that the endorsement does not determine how she would govern.

At a forum Tuesday, Raman said her “independence will always be paramount,” while describing the DSA as a broad progressive coalition whose members do not agree on everything. Both candidates used the event to speak to undecided voters, including on divisive questions about Israel and Gaza.

The more immediate issues for many Angelenos are closer to home. The Berkeley IGS poll found city infrastructure, homelessness, public safety, and affordable housing among voters’ top concerns. Raman argues Bass has failed to make City Hall work on those basics.

Bass points to her housing approvals and homelessness programs, while questioning Raman’s record as former chair of the City Council’s housing and homelessness committee.

It is an unusually direct test for two Democrats with overlapping constituencies but different answers about what has gone wrong at City Hall.

The next test

Mail ballots begin going out Oct. 1, and Bass and Raman are scheduled to debate on Oct. 13, giving the incumbent a prominent chance to challenge the new frontrunner before the Nov. 3 election.

For now, the polling and prediction markets agree on the direction of the race. Raman has moved ahead.

What they still cannot settle is the question that matters most to Bass: whether the voters holding back are dissatisfied enough to replace her, or uncertain enough to give her another term.