Chiefs vs. Dolphins Week 3 Odds & Predictions
Sunday NFL action brings Kansas City to Miami in Week 3 on September 27, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS. Prediction markets currently make Kansas City the favorite at -505 (83.5% implied probability), while Miami is priced at +482 (17.2%). The Chiefs vs. Dolphins board compares exact full-game winner prices from available prediction markets, using volume-weighted pricing to show the consensus line, venue spreads and trading volume with hourly updates.
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Current Chiefs vs. Dolphins Odds: Kansas City Favorite to Win
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
KCKansas City
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
83.5%↑ +1.0%
K
83.5%
U
82.5%
P
82.0%
MIMiami
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
17.2%↑ +0.2%
P
18.0%
U
18.0%
K
17.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kansas City | 83.5% ↑ +1.0% | 1.5% | — |
Kalshi
83.5%
|
Polymarket
82.0%
|
Polymarket US
82.5%
|
MI Miami | 17.2% ↑ +0.2% | 1.0% | — |
Kalshi
17.0%
|
Polymarket
18.0%
|
Polymarket US
18.0%
|
Week 3 line movement: Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI Miami |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 18¢ | Sell @ P 80¢ | +62.00% | +62.00% |
Yes | |
KC Kansas City |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 82.5¢ | Sell @ K 83¢ | +0.50% | -0.33% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kansas City |
MI Miami |
Kalshi | A 83.5% | B 17.0% | +66.50% | Buy spread | |
KC Kansas City |
MI Miami |
Polymarket US | A 82.5% | B 18.0% | +64.50% | Buy spread | |
KC Kansas City |
MI Miami |
Polymarket | A 82.0% | B 18.0% | +64.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
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