Raiders vs. Patriots Week 5 Odds & PredictionsThe Patriots are a 64% favorite at home against the Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET. Prediction markets give the Patriots a 64% chance to win (−177) and the Raiders 36% (+177). Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket agree within a point. Kalshi's lines make it Patriots −3.5, with 45.5 total points. The Patriots are up 1 point this week on Kalshi. $82K has traded on the game in the last 24 hours.
About 2 in 3 (−177)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $156 if correct, before fees.
About 2 in 5 (+177)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $277 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Best price to buy
Fees included- Kalshi7% fee · bid 63¢65.6¢64¢ + fee$152per $100
- Polymarket USBest price6.95% fee · bid 63.5¢65.4¢63.8¢ + fee$153per $100
- PolymarketOutside US5% fee · bid 64¢66.1¢65¢ + fee$151per $100
Ranked by price with each venue’s taker fee on one contract. Polymarket’s international site isn’t open to US traders, so it’s never marked best.
Markets’ projected final
From the spread & totalThe Patriots by 3.6 with 45.1 total points: the lines Kalshi’s spread and total markets price at even odds. Before the game: NE -3.5, total 45.5.
Raiders vs. Patriots moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England PatriotsHome · −177 | 64% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $156 | Kalshi64¢ | Polymarket US63.7¢ | Polymarket65¢ | |
| Las Vegas RaidersAway · +177 | 36% $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $277 | Kalshi37¢ | Polymarket US36.5¢ | Polymarket36¢ |
Best prices to buy: New England at 63.7¢ on Polymarket US; Las Vegas at 36¢ on Polymarket. Buying both costs 99.8¢ and pays $1 whichever team wins: 0.25¢ locked in, before fees. Traded in the past 24 hours: $76K on Kalshi, $6K on Polymarket US and $263 on Polymarket.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: OpenPolymarket: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price; the midpoint of Polymarket's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 6, 11:41 AM and 12:06 PM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, New England gained 1 point, to 64%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 29 to Oct 5 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Raiders vs. Patriots spread and over/under
Kalshi and Polymarket US price a ladder of margins and totals: tap a price to buy that line. The line closest to a coin flip is tagged.
All 25 spread lines
All 19 total lines
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Polymarket US lists one team’s spread both ways: an underdog line there is bought as No on the favorite’s line. Source: Kalshi and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 6, 11:10 AM and 12:07 PM ET.
Live at kickoff
1:00 PM- Every play, with how the price moved on it
- The win chance, play by play, against ESPN’s model
- Live best prices on each venue, fees included
- Big bets as they land, and the money behind each side
- Quarter winners and player props as they settle
This page turns live by itself at kickoff; there’s no need to refresh.
NFL Week 5 games 15 games
- Thu 8:15 PM ETTB BuccaneersDAL CowboysDAL 80%
- Sun 9:30 AM ETPHI EaglesJAC JaguarsJAC 75%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETCIN BengalsMIA DolphinsCIN 76%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETCLE BrownsNYJ JetsNYJ 55%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETHOU TexansTEN TitansHOU 74%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETIND ColtsPIT SteelersPIT 57%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETThis gameLV RaidersNE PatriotsNE 64%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETMIN VikingsNO SaintsMIN 55%
- Sun 1:00 PM ETNYG GiantsWAS CommandersWAS 62%
- Sun 4:05 PM ETDEN BroncosLAC ChargersDEN 63%
- Sun 4:25 PM ETCHI BearsGB PackersCHI 58%
- Sun 4:25 PM ETDET LionsARI CardinalsDET 69%
- Sun 4:25 PM ETSF 49ersSEA SeahawksSEA 58%
- Sun 8:20 PM ETBAL RavensATL FalconsATL 58%
- Mon 8:15 PM ETBUF BillsLAR RamsLAR 59%
Live prediction market odds for the Las Vegas Raiders at the New England Patriots, Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET: Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket prices to win, the spread and total, player props, and where the money is going. At kickoff this page turns into the live Game Center, with the score, the plays and the odds moving with them.
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