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Industry stories
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- Polymarket US Self-Certifies Parlay-Style Sports Contracts With CFTC
Polymarket's filing for a Combinatoric Athletic Outcome Contract could bring multi-leg sports markets to its regulated US exchange as rivals add parlay-style products.
- Who Won Survivor 50? Kalshi Traders Picked Aubry Early Despite ‘No Evidence’ of Insider Trading
Aubry Bracco was priced as a heavy favorite weeks before the season aired, while Kalshi’s broader Survivor slate drew more than $40 million and renewed questions about taped-show markets.
- Kalshi, Polymarket Rank No. 43 and 48 on CNBC Disruptor 50 List: Should They Be Higher?
CNBC's Disruptor 50 recognized prediction markets for the first time, placing Kalshi and Polymarket in the bottom fifth of a list topped by Anthropic.
- Inside the First Polymarket Private Valuation Markets for OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic
Polymarket's new contracts use Nasdaq Private Market data to let traders speculate on whether OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic and others hit valuation thresholds.
- Kalshi Joins NCPG To Advance Prediction Market Responsible Trading Safeguards
Kalshi became the National Council on Problem Gambling's first prediction market member, funding its consumer protection work as the industry faces pressure over safeguards.
- The Next Online Casino Loophole Is Being Built on Prediction Markets, Gaming Lawyer Says
A gaming lawyer tells DeFi Rate a new wave of gray-area online casinos may be built on regulated prediction markets, possibly beyond both federal and state reach.
- Interactive Brokers Expands Prediction Markets with Kalshi, CME Group Integration
IBKR’s new prediction markets interface gives its clients one place to access, compare and trade ForecastEx, Kalshi and CME event contracts.
- Moomoo Joins Retail Brokerage Push Into Prediction Markets
Moomoo plans to offer US event contract trading through its newly NFA-approved brokerage arm, though it has not said which exchange will supply the contracts.
- DraftKings Predictions Tops $2.3B Annualized Volume Ahead of Railbird Launch, Parlay Rollout
DraftKings reported rising prediction market volume and falling acquisition costs, and said its Railbird exchange and parlay-style combos will launch within weeks.
- Flutter Reinforces $300M FanDuel Predicts Expansion and Market Making Push
Flutter said FanDuel Predicts earned little revenue in the first quarter but kept its investment plan and is testing market making ahead of the World Cup and NFL season.
- Limitless Exchange Files for CFTC Approval After Record $1.66B Month
Limitless, a blockchain prediction market on Base, has a US entity applying to the CFTC to become a designated contract market after its busiest month yet.
- Polymarket and Kalshi Open Trading on Chris Martin’s World Cup Final Halftime Show
Polymarket and Kalshi have opened markets on the World Cup Final halftime show. The volume won’t match the Super Bowl, but the numbers won’t be a footnote either.
- Responsible Trading Takes Center Stage as Prediction Market Safeguards Advance
Unlike sportsbooks, prediction markets face no responsible-gambling mandates, and problem-gambling advocates are urging the CFTC to require nationwide protections.
- Gemini Wins CFTC Clearing License, Eyes Full Derivatives Stack
The CFTC registered Gemini affiliate Olympus as a clearinghouse, letting Gemini clear its prediction markets in-house and run both the exchange and clearing.
- Robinhood Q1 Earnings Show Prediction Markets Holding Strong as Rothera Exchange Nears Launch
Robinhood reported a record quarter for event contracts that helped offset a sharp drop in crypto revenue, and plans to launch its own Rothera exchange this quarter.
- Will Trump Fire Kash Patel? Polymarket, Kalshi Odds Signal Growing Exit Risk
Kalshi and Polymarket price FBI Director Kash Patel's exit from the Trump administration this year as more likely than not.
- New Broker Filings Fuel Distribution Race Across Prediction Markets
DAZN, Newsmax and others have applied to become introducing brokers, a route to offer prediction markets to their audiences without running an exchange.
- Seven Ways Prediction Markets Are Rewriting Institutional Risk Management
Institutions such as Citadel Securities are eyeing event contracts to hedge elections, macro and geopolitical risk directly, often with far less capital than traditional hedges.
- What John Oliver Got Wrong, Right About Prediction Markets on Last Week Tonight
John Oliver's segment was largely fair, but many of his worst examples came from Polymarket's offshore platform, and the CFTC has yet to use its public-interest review powers.
- Ninth Circuit Debates Gaming vs Swaps Divide in Nevada vs. Kalshi Hearing
Ninth Circuit judges pressed both Nevada and Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com on whether Congress let federal regulators displace state sports betting laws.