- ▸ In earnings report, Flutter said FanDuel Predicts produced immaterial Q1 revenue while the company is keeping its roughly $300 million 2026 investment plan intact.
- ▸ Flutter is preparing a bigger FanDuel Predicts push around the World Cup and NFL season after folding prediction markets into the main FanDuel app for customers in states without legal online sports betting.
- ▸ Flutter is testing market making, especially around combo trades, as it looks to capture more revenue from FanDuel Predicts.
Flutter Entertainment said FanDuel Predicts produced immaterial revenue in the first quarter of 2026, even as FanDuel’s parent company continues to plan for roughly $300 million in adjusted EBITDA investment losses tied to its prediction market push this year.
The company, which owns FanDuel and describes itself as the world’s leading online sports betting and iGaming operator, said Wednesday that FanDuel Predicts remains in an early buildout phase as it prepares for a larger sports-focused push around the World Cup and ’26/’27 NFL season.
“We continue to view prediction markets as a very attractive, incremental opportunity providing an avenue to acquire customers ahead of sports betting regulation in new states,” Flutter said in its Q1 earnings release.
Flutter CEO Peter Jackson echoed that framing on the company’s earnings call, saying FanDuel continues to see limited cannibalization of its sports betting business from prediction market operators and views the category as an incremental customer-acquisition opportunity in states that have not yet legalized online sports betting.
The update came as Flutter cut its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance and confirmed a leadership shakeup at FanDuel. Amy Howe, who had been FanDuel CEO since 2021, has left the company, while FanDuel President Christian Genetski will assume leadership of the U.S. business. Genetski has been one of FanDuel’s public voices on prediction markets, telling Bloomberg recently that the company has moved slowly with FanDuel Predicts because it holds gaming licenses in several states and wanted more clarity from the federal government, which he said they’ve now gotten, before pushing deeper into the category.
Flutter also disclosed an early step toward market making, a capability executives have tied to better prediction market economics and parlay-style “combo” products. The company said it began trialing market-making services in April on an unnamed major third-party prediction-market platform and expects to launch its own market-making platform in the coming months.
FanDuel leans on “One App” ahead of NFL push
Flutter’s near-term plan for FanDuel Predicts centers on making the product easier to find and more sports-focused before the company commits heavier marketing dollars later this year.
At the start of April, Flutter launched FanDuel’s “One App” experience, which dynamically routes customers to sportsbook products in states where FanDuel offers legal online sports betting or to prediction markets in states where it does not. The company said the setup allows FanDuel to use one national brand and one app download to reach customers across the country, rather than forcing prediction market users into a separate app.
Jackson described the One App launch as “important progress” on the earnings call, saying it allows consumers “wherever they are across America” to access sports through FanDuel. He later said the goal is to “build a great sports experience for customers wherever they are in America.”
FanDuel Predicts is now available nationwide for financial, economic and commodities contracts, while sports contracts are available in 18 non-sportsbook states, including California, Texas and Florida. Flutter said it widened its range of sports markets in March and April and saw strong app downloads during March Madness after early testing of its promotional capabilities, during which it offered a $25 bonus to new users.
“Q1 was really about testing and learning for us,” Jackson said, pointing to early efforts around generosity and marketing for FanDuel Predicts. He said the company used the quarter to demonstrate its ability to acquire customers and establish a presence in the category.
The bigger test will come later this year. Flutter said Q1 revenue from FanDuel Predicts was modest and that it is focused on building a “truly sports-led experience” by Q4, with the upcoming NFL season identified as a major milestone.
“We really want to get behind the start of the NFL season in the second half year,” Jackson said, while adding that Flutter needs to make sure it has the right products in place first.
Jackson said Flutter will invest behind World Cup trading too, and expects prediction market spending to ramp up slightly from Q1 to Q2. But he reiterated that most of the spending remains weighted to the second half of the year, with the company watching returns from prediction market customers on a customer-acquisition-cost and lifetime-value basis.
FanDuel tests market making as combo bets become bigger focus
Flutter’s market-making push could become one of the more important pieces of its prediction market strategy, both economically and structurally.
The company said in its Q1 earnings release that it began testing market-making services in April on an unnamed major third-party prediction market platform. Flutter said the initial work has focused on “optimizing spreads across a range of contract types” and testing risk-management capabilities, with the company expecting to launch its own market-making platform in the coming months.
The move matters because prediction markets are often described as exchange-style products where users trade against one another, rather than against a sportsbook-style house. But if Flutter is making markets, it can act as a liquidity provider by posting prices and taking the other side of trades.
That distinction drew attention after the earnings release. Barron’s gambling and prediction markets reporter Nick Devor wrote on X that when a user makes a parlay trade on a prediction market, “FanDuel might be your counterparty.” Devor said Jackson told him Flutter’s market-making activity is mainly focused on prediction-market parlay or “combo” bets.
“I want to do both,” Jackson told Devor, according to the post. “I want to make money through market making and I want to acquire customers.”
Jackson made a similar point on Flutter’s earnings call, saying market making gives the company a way to monetize its pricing expertise, particularly around combos. He said Flutter plans to make markets on “as many platforms as we can,” while also considering what market making could allow FanDuel to do on its own platform.
Market making also helps explain why Flutter is willing to keep investing in FanDuel Predicts despite modest early revenue. Flutter CFO Rob Coldrake said at a Morgan Stanley conference in March that market making is where “the majority of the margin lies,” while Jackson said the capability would help FanDuel better stand up parlay-style combo products.
On Wednesday’s call, Jackson said Flutter is already making money from market-making services, though still at a small scale. He said the company expects to launch its own platform in the coming months. However, Jackson said market-making revenue is not currently baked into guidance.
FCM filing points to more exchange flexibility for FanDuel Predicts
Flutter’s market making comments also add context to FanDuel’s recent futures commissions merchant (FCM) application.
FanDuel is not starting from zero on the FCM side. FanDuel Predicts already operates through FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a CFTC-registered non-clearing FCM tied to Flutter’s partnership with CME Group. In that structure, CME provides the exchange infrastructure and contracts available through FanDuel Predicts. Flutter’s Q1 release said CME receives an approximately 50% revenue share from the platform before promotional spend and bears the costs to support the exchange.
That makes the newer FCM application notable because it was filed through FanDuel Holdings LLC, a separate entity from the already-approved FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC.
Jackson did not frame the FCM application as an immediate break from CME on Wednesday’s call. But when asked whether the filing reflected a broader rethink around vertical integration, he said Flutter wants to “adapt and do what we need to do in order to win” and said the application gives the company “further optionality.”
He also said FanDuel could connect to other venues, reinforcing the idea that the filing may be less about a near-term strategy shift and more about preserving flexibility as FanDuel builds out market making, combo products and a fuller prediction-market offering.
Regulatory uncertainty still hangs over FanDuel Predicts
Flutter’s earnings call did not resolve one of the biggest questions around FanDuel Predicts: how much legal uncertainty the company is willing to absorb as it pushes deeper into prediction markets.
Asked how the legal environment could affect investment in the category next year and beyond, Jackson acknowledged the unsettled backdrop. Several states are currently in legal battles with prediction market platforms over whether sports event contracts fall under state sports gaming laws or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s federal derivatives framework.
“Until we get through and understand ultimately what the Supreme Court says, I think we’re going to live with this uncertainty,” Jackson said.
That leaves Flutter trying to prove FanDuel Predicts can justify the added complexity. The product gives FanDuel a way to reach customers in states that have not legalized online sports betting, but the strategy now comes with legal uncertainty and pressure to show that early product tests can turn into a meaningful business.
The Q1 update landed during a volatile day for Flutter shares. The stock fell after CNBC first reported Howe’s departure Wednesday afternoon, dropping from roughly $105 shortly before the report to around $99 later in the afternoon. Flutter closed at $99.11, down 4.08% on the day, before rebounding in after-hours trading to $101.94 as of 6 p.m. ET, according to Public.com.
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