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US Elections stories
101–120 of 141, newest first
- NJ GOP Senate Primary Attracts Trading Volume Despite Strong Democratic Hold Odds
Polymarket traders are active in New Jersey's Republican Senate primary even as prediction markets make Democrats overwhelming favorites to hold Sen. Cory Booker's seat.
- Iowa Split: Prediction Markets Back Rob Sand but Favor GOP Senate Hold Ahead of Primary
Prediction markets favor Democrat Rob Sand to win Iowa's governor race while still expecting Republicans to hold the open Senate seat. Here is why traders split.
- CA Governor Primary Markets Signal Becerra vs Hilton Matchup as Polls Catch Up
Polls now match what prediction markets priced for weeks: Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advancing from California's top-two governor primary.
- Texas Made the Senate Map Harder for Republicans, Markets Reacted
Ken Paxton's runoff win over Sen. John Cornyn made Texas one of the Senate races that prediction markets now watch for control of the chamber.
- Texas Senate Runoff: Prediction Markets Saw the Trump Wave Before the Vote Did
Prediction markets nailed another MAGA ouster in the Texas Senate GOP runoff, but it could set up a tough November slate for Republicans.
- Texas Political Volume at Kalshi Focusing on Cornyn-Paxton Runoff
Texas political markets have reached $24.2 million of trading volume on Kalshi, but less than $200K in open interest separates Paxton from Cornyn.
- Trump’s Primary Wave Hits Texas Senate Runoff but Markets Still See Democratic Senate Path
Trump's endorsement pushed Ken Paxton to dominant odds in the Texas Senate runoff, as in Louisiana and Kentucky, while Senate markets still show a possible Democratic path.
- Trump’s Paxton Endorsement Has Prediction Markets Treating Texas Senate Runoff as a Done Deal
Ken Paxton odds surged to 94% in the Texas Senate GOP primary following President Donald Trump’s endorsement.
- GOP Turns Prime Georgia Senate Pickup Into a Primary Mess as Ossoff Holds Strong
A three-way Republican battle in the Georgia Senate primary has prediction markets breaking heavily for Democratic sitting Sen. Jon Ossoff.
- Markets Flip on Massie Ahead of KY-04 Vote: Can Trump-Backed Gallrein Pull Off Upset?
After Sen. Bill Cassidy lost his Louisiana primary, markets turned against Rep. Thomas Massie ahead of his Kentucky primary against Trump-backed Ed Gallrein.
- Louisiana Senate Markets Turn on Cassidy as Trump-Backed Letlow Gains Ground
Trump-backed Julia Letlow is the clear favorite over incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy on prediction markets in the Louisiana GOP Senate race.
- Markets Aren’t Buying AOC‑Backed Rabb Surge in PA-03 Democratic House Primary
Prediction markets favor state Sen. Sharif Street in Philadelphia's open-seat Democratic primary over AOC-backed Chris Rabb and poll leader Ala Stanford.
- Kentucky GOP House Primary Odds Briefly Flip to Gallrein After Massie Scandal
Prediction markets briefly flipped to favor Trump-backed Ed Gallrein over Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky's 4th District primary after a former girlfriend's allegations.
- Markets Not Buying Dan Osborn Nebraska Upset Story Despite Tight Polls
Dan Osborn polls tied with Pete Ricketts in Nebraska Senate race, but prediction markets are not buying his story.
- Roy Cooper Is Making Prediction Markets Forget North Carolina Is Republican Territory
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has a sizeable lead in both polls and prediction markets in a state that has leaned Republican.
- Rob Sand Pushes Iowa Governor Odds Toward Democrats
Prediction markets are pricing Democrat Rob Sand as a real favorite in deep-red Iowa in the 2026 governor race.
- Reality Star Spencer Pratt Emerges as Real Contender in LA Mayor Markets
Prediction markets now treat Spencer Pratt as a real contender for Los Angeles mayor after he blamed Mayor Karen Bass for the Palisades fire in a debate.
- Ohio Governor Markets Leaning Blue Despite Ramaswamy Win in GOP Primary
Vivek Ramaswamy won the Republican Primary for the Ohio governor race, but prediction markets still favor Democrat Amy Acton.
- Becerra Surges in California Governor Odds as Ballots Hit Mailboxes
Xavier Becerra took the lead on Kalshi in the California governor race as ballots went out, after a poll showed him tied with Republican Steve Hilton.
- Georgia Governor Primary Odds Favor Bottoms, Jackson as Polls Lag
Prediction markets favor Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson in Georgia’s governor primaries, even as polls show more uncertainty on the GOP side.