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US Elections stories
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- Markets Buck Texas Senate Polls, Favor Paxton and GOP Edge
Markets favor Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas Republican runoff and still expect a Republican win, even as polls show James Talarico competitive.
- Markets Favor El-Sayed in Michigan Democratic Senate Primary as Polls Stay Split
Polls show a three-way race for Michigan's Democratic Senate nomination, but prediction markets make Abdul El-Sayed a slight favorite over Mallory McMorrow and Haley Stevens.
- How Prediction Markets Saw the Platner Surge and Mills Exit in Maine Ahead of Polls
Kalshi and Polymarket had Graham Platner as the clear Maine Democratic Senate favorite long before Gov. Janet Mills suspended her campaign, while polls lagged.
- California Billionaire Tax Nears Ballot as Odds Still Lean ‘No’
California's proposed one-time billionaire tax appears to have enough signatures for the November ballot, but Kalshi and Polymarket traders still expect it to fail.
- Prediction Market ETFs Arrive, Bringing Election Bets to Retirement Accounts
Roundhill plans six ETFs tracking which party wins the White House in 2028 and Congress in 2026, putting prediction market odds in a format investors already use.
- Traders Pour Millions Into 2028 Presidential Race as Democrats Hold Early Edge
JD Vance, Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio top 2028 presidential winner markets, while party-level contracts still lean toward a Democratic win.
- Prediction Markets Nailed Narrow Virginia Redistricting Referendum Win
Kalshi and Polymarket priced Virginia's redistricting referendum as a close, lean-Yes race, matching the narrow result that lets Democrats redraw the congressional map.
- Ohio Senate Special Election Moves to Toss-Up as Markets Price Flip Risk
Prediction markets now price Ohio's Senate special election between Sherrod Brown and Sen. Jon Husted as a near toss-up with Democrats slightly favored.
- Becerra Leads CA Governor Scramble as Markets Surge After Swalwell Exit
Xavier Becerra overtook Tom Steyer as frontrunner after Eric Swalwell left the California governor race, and traders see Steve Hilton as the one likely to advance.
- Vance Leads GOP 2028 Odds as Markets Price Trump Risk
JD Vance leads prediction markets for the 2028 Republican nomination, while Donald Trump trades at low odds and GOP volume trails the Democratic markets.
- Democratic Presidential Race Tops $1.1B in Trades with Two Years of Turbulance Ahead
With no declared candidates, 2028 Democratic nomination markets show Gavin Newsom leading Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff and Kamala Harris in a wide-open field.
- Swalwell Odds Plummet from 35% to 1% Before Dropping Out of CA Governor Race
Eric Swalwell's odds in the California governor race collapsed within hours of misconduct reports, and dropout markets resolved Yes when he suspended his campaign.
- California Governor Race Tops $15M in Trading, Hinges on Who Survives June Primary
California's top-two primary has traders pricing who advances as well as who wins, with markets expecting a Republican to advance but a Democrat to win in November.
- Peltola Turns Alaska into Senate Battleground as Governor Race Drives Prediction Market Activity
Mary Peltola's entry has made Alaska's Senate race competitive on Kalshi and Polymarket, while the multi-candidate governor market draws even more trading.
- Traders Predicted Bondi Exit, Now Pricing Next Cabinet Shakeups
Prediction markets are now pricing the next Trump Cabinet exits and new Attorney General after Kalshi and Polymarket traders accurately predicted the Bondi exit.
- Georgia House Runoff Markets Signal GOP Lock, Focus Shifts to Margin
Georgia voters head to the polls in the GA-14 runoff to elect Marjorie Taylor Greene’s replacement. Prediction markets price a GOP lock, with the real question now shifting to margin.
- Louisiana Senate Race Gets Messy But Traders Signal Safe GOP Hold
Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a crowded, contentious Republican primary, but Kalshi and Polymarket show modest volume and price Louisiana as a safe Republican hold.
- Georgia Could Swing the Senate, but Early Consensus Leans Blue
Jon Ossoff's Georgia Senate seat is one of the GOP's clearest pickup chances in November, but the Republican primary is quiet on prediction markets so far.
- Maine Senate Primary Odds Tilt to Platner as Traders Eye Key Senate Flip Opportunity
Prediction markets show Graham Platner at ~80% odds to win Maine’s Democratic Senate primary, with over $4M in volume. Traders see the race as a key pathway to a Democratic Senate flip.
- Democrats 85% to Flip the House in 2026 Midterms, Senate Still a Toss-Up
Prediction markets are forecasting an 85% chance of House control flipping to Democrats in the 2026 midterms, with the Senate left as a messy, seat‑by‑seat brawl.