DeFi Rate authorPat Evans
Stories by Pat Evans
21–40 of 145, newest first
- Florida Primaries Are Loaded With Prediction Markets, but Only a Few Races Are Actually Getting Serious Money
Florida's primaries have many markets, from Rep. Byron Donalds' near-certain governor nomination to a South Florida progressive test, but money is concentrated in a few.
- Trump-Backed Graham Nordone Faces South Carolina Senate Runoff Test, Prediction Markets Pile Behind Her
Sen. Darline Graham Nordone fell short of a majority in South Carolina's Republican Senate primary and faces Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff as the strong market favorite.
- Prediction Markets Nail Minnesota Primaries, Backing Flanagan And Tafoya In A Progressive Wave Test
Prediction markets correctly called Minnesota's major primaries, including Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for Senate and Republican Michele Tafoya, after a miss in Wisconsin.
- Prediction Markets Miss Again as Crowley Upsets Hong in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primary
David Crowley narrowly beat Francesca Hong, whom markets had as a near-certain winner, in Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary, and will face Republican Tom Tiffany.
- Hong Heads Into Wisconsin Governor Primary as Near Prediction Markets Lock, but Her November Problem Is Already Showing
Francesca Hong trades as a near-lock in Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary, but markets already favor Republicans to win the state in November.
- Individual Prediction Markets Contracts Show Democrats With Path To Senate Control
Republicans are still slight favorites to hold the Senate, but state markets now lean Democratic in Michigan, Alaska and Ohio and show Texas tied.
- Minnesota Primaries Put Progressive Wave to Another Test, Even as Prediction Markets Hold Firm on Flanagan
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the market favorite in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary, though a new poll shows Angie Craig slightly ahead.
- Talarico Draws Even With Paxton in Texas Senate Prediction Markets as New Poll Flips the Race
After a poll showed Democrat James Talarico ahead, Texas Senate markets moved to an even race with Republican Ken Paxton in a seat once seen as safely Republican.
- Trump’s Vance Talk Sends 2028 GOP Markets Further Toward a Two-Man Race With Rubio
Reports that Trump told donors "we need to elect JD" added to JD Vance's lead over Marco Rubio in Kalshi and Polymarket markets for the 2028 Republican nomination.
- Prediction Markets Nailed Blackburn’s Tennessee Governor Primary Win as Polls Pointed to a Tight Race
Marsha Blackburn easily won Tennessee’s Republican governor primary, confirming the forecasts from Kalshi and Polymarket, which had priced her near 96% heading into Election Day.
- Prediction Markets Treat Blackburn As Lock In Tennessee GOP Governor Primary, New Poll Suggests Three-Way Race
Kalshi and Polymarket treat Sen. Marsha Blackburn as a near-certain winner of Tennessee's Republican governor primary, while a new poll shows a three-way race.
- Prediction Markets Still Favor Graham Nordone In Crowded South Carolina GOP Senate Primary After Debates
Sen. Darline Graham Nordone remains the favorite in a 10-way special primary to replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham. She’s trading at 63% on Kalshi with about $4 million in volume.
- El-Sayed Survives Michigan Primary, Prediction Markets Still Think He Wins In November
Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan's Democratic Senate primary far more narrowly than markets priced, and Democrats are only modest favorites against Republican Mike Rogers.
- Prediction Markets Not Buying Progressive Wave In Missouri Comeback Bid
Former Rep. Cori Bush is trying to win back Missouri's 1st District, but traders favor incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell, suggesting limits to the progressive wave.
- SDNY Judge Denies CFTC’s Emergency TRO Against New York, Leaving Prediction Markets in the Middle of a Fragmented Legal Map
Judge Victor Marrero denied the CFTC and Justice Department's emergency request to stop New York from enforcing its laws against prediction markets.
- Prediction Markets Suggest Landslides In Michigan Primaries As Progressive Wave Is Put to Test in a Must-Win Senate Seat
Abdul El-Sayed is the overwhelming favorite in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, a test of whether the progressive wave can hold a battleground seat in November.
- Prediction Markets Suggesting Kansas Primaries Are Mostly Routs, But the Governor Race Still Offers a Measure of Red-State Drift
Markets see Sen. Roger Marshall's reelection as safe, making the governor race the more interesting Kansas contest as Democrats try to hold the office.
- Obama Backs Turek In Iowa Senate Race, Prediction Markets Still Weary of Democratic Chances
Barack Obama endorsed Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa's open Senate race, but prediction markets still lean toward Republican Ashley Hinson despite tightening polls.
- Fed Holds Steady, Prediction Markets Pivot to a September Hike
The Fed held rates steady as expected, but stocks wavered and bonds sold off, and Kalshi traders now see a September hike as roughly a coin flip.
- Prediction Markets See a Fed Hold, But Warsh Has Left the Door Open to a Hawkish Surprise
Kalshi and Polymarket expect a July hold at Kevin Warsh's first rate decision as Fed chair, while longer-dated contracts still price a real chance of a hike this year.