President Donald Trump has spent months avoiding a public choice between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, often presenting both as potential heirs in the 2028 presidential election.
But recently reported private comments to donors are the clearest evidence yet that he may be leaning toward Vance.
“At the end of the day, we need to elect JD,” according to people familiar with the meeting, per the Washington Post.
However, that does not amount to a formal endorsement. Trump pushed back publicly when asked about the report, calling Vance “great” but saying it was much too early to be thinking about the 2028 presidential election. Advisers likewise cautioned that the president has not made a final decision.
Still, prediction markets have started to separate the two potential candidates after running nearly even in June.
Markets see Vance and Rubio
The GOP 2028 presidential nomination contracts have turned into a two-person market.
On Kalshi, Vance is at 42% and Rubio at 23% on $56.1 million in volume. No other potential candidate has cleared 5%.
Polymarket tells the same story at a much bigger scale. Vance sits at 43%, Rubio at 23%, and the rest of the prospective field is 3% or lower, on $686 million in volume.
The 2028 general election winner markets are more compressed, but Vance still has the lead.
Kalshi has him at 19%, Rubio at 17%, both running ahead of Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 12%, on $57.5 million in volume. Polymarket puts Vance at 21%, ahead of Rubio at 13%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Newsom are at 11% each, with Democratic Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff at 10%. That’s on $678.2 million traded.
Rubio has the activist edge
The grassroots read is less straightforward. Rubio won a recent Western Conservative Summit straw poll with 57% support, 36 points ahead of Vance’s 21%. Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence rounded out the top five.
That is a single activist event, not a national primary survey, but it shows Rubio’s coalition may be stronger with at least one slice of the conservative base than the market prices imply.
The divergence also reflects the underlying bet. Rubio is polling as a viable successor and has real institutional support, but Vance has the vice presidency, a stronger claim to the MAGA succession lane, and now a report suggesting Trump may want him next. For now, traders are betting that those advantages outweigh the straw-poll gap.
The real 2028 trade
The early 2028 market is not really about policy yet. It is about who inherits Trump’s coalition, who gets his blessing, and whether the GOP sees Vance and Rubio as rivals or eventually as a ticket.
Trump has offered both men encouragement, but the latest reporting makes Vance look like the default heir, at least until Trump says otherwise.
That leaves Rubio in the strange position of being the only serious market challenger while still trailing Vance by roughly 20 points in the nomination contracts. Prediction markets are giving Trump’s apparent preference a lot of weight. But with two years to go, a single straw poll already shows why this race is not settled.
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