Minnesota’s Tuesday primaries have two very different stories underneath them, and prediction markets are watching closely.
The Democratic Senate contest is another referendum on the progressive wave that has reshaped Democratic 2026 midterm primaries this year, while the governor’s race looks far more straightforward on the Democratic side and unusually unsettled for Republicans.
The big race is the Democratic Senate primary between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig. Flanagan has held the ideological and party-endorsed progressive lane for most of the campaign, with Sen. Bernie Sanders and Minnesota progressives behind her. Craig, meanwhile, has run as the more moderate and ostensibly more electable choice against the likely Republican nominee, former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, in November.
Meanwhile in the governor races, Sen. Amy Klobuchar looks to be the safe bet for the Democrats, while MyPillow founder Mike Lindell is fighting for the nod against State House Speaker Lisa Demuth.
The races are to replace outgoing Democrats Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. Tina Smith.
Markets stick with Flanagan
Kalshi has Flanagan at 72% on nearly $500,000 in volume, and Polymarket has her at the same 72% on more than $250,000. That is a solid market advantage, and it has barely moved even as the polling has become less clean in the final stretch.
The latest KSTP-TV survey put Craig ahead 42% to 40%, with 15% undecided, an edge that is inside its 5.3-point margin of error. Earlier public polling had found Flanagan ahead by 14 points in one Democratic-sponsored survey, while a previous KSTP poll had the two tied at 40% apiece. The right description is not that Flanagan is cruising, but that she remains the market favorite in a race where the final independent poll says the vote is effectively a toss-up.
That should make traders cautious after Michigan. Progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed traded at 98% before his Democratic Senate primary, then won by a far narrower margin than those odds and polls suggested. Sanders has similarly warned that the Minnesota contest could be close.
A Flanagan win would be another marker for the progressive wing in the 2026 primaries, but the final result may be much more competitive than the market’s 72% price implies.
The progressive-wave test
Flanagan belongs in the same broader 2026 story as the progressive candidates who have scored important primary wins in New York, Colorado and Michigan. The case from the left is that voters want a sharper break from the party’s establishment, particularly on affordability, health care, labor, immigration enforcement and Israel policy.
Minnesota is a meaningful test because Craig is not a weak opponent. She has congressional experience, moderate credentials and a clear argument that she would be the stronger general election candidate against Tafoya.
A Flanagan victory would bolster the view that the progressive lane can beat a well-funded, mainstream Democrat in a competitive statewide primary, and not just win in safely blue districts.
The election is also the day of Wisconsin’s primary, where a progressive candidate for governor is leading on prediction markets, offering progressives a chance to pick up two more high-profile wins in the Upper Midwest. But Minnesota is the more immediate measure of whether the movement can translate enthusiasm into statewide turnout, particularly when there is still a large undecided bloc.
Governor race splits
The Democratic gubernatorial primary is much less complicated. Klobuchar is priced at 99% on Kalshi, with roughly $500,000 in volume, and at 100% on Polymarket, albeit on only $33,000.
That is as close to a settled nomination as markets get.
The Republican contest is where the volatility sits. Demuth leads Lindell 58% to 41% on Kalshi, on about $725,000 in volume, and 56% to 44% on Polymarket, where about $600,000 has traded. But the latest SurveyUSA poll has Lindell leading 34% to 28%, with former candidate Kendall Qualls at 17% and 21% undecided.
That mismatch makes the GOP race more interesting than it first appears. Markets are leaning toward Demuth, while the final public polling shows Lindell’s name recognition and loyal base could still push him across the line in a fragmented field. It is another example of why a market price should be read as a probability, not a declaration of what has already happened.
November still looks blue
Despite the noisy primaries, Minnesota does not look like a state that is slipping out of Democrats’ hands in November. Tafoya is the overwhelming Republican Senate favorite and has a credible media profile, but both Flanagan and Craig have led her in available general election polling.
The same is true in the governor’s race. Klobuchar holds sizable leads over both likely Republican nominees.
Democrats are heavy general election favorites on thin prediction market volumes, and the available polling supports that read.
Minnesota was close enough in the 2024 presidential election to keep both parties interested, but the 2026 statewide map is not currently behaving like a true battleground. Tuesday is about which Democratic faction wins the Senate nomination, and whether the prediction markets‘ confidence in Flanagan holds up, not about whether Republicans are on the verge of flipping the state.
