Prediction markets correctly traded on the top Minnesota primaries right Tuesday night, correctly calling Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s Senate win, former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya’s Republican nomination and both gubernatorial nominees.
It was a strong recovery after prediction markets’ uneven Wisconsin performance, where markets were overly confident in progressive Democratic State Rep. Francesca Hong in her bid for governor and watched her lose in a nail-biter.
Traders correctly predicted both parties’ Senate and governor nominations.
Flanagan’s win was also another data point for the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. She beat centrist U.S. Rep. Angie Craig in a race that had tightened in late polling, extending a string of insurgent-progressive primary wins after Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed.
Markets backed Flanagan
Ahead of the primary, Flanagan traded at 72% on both Kalshi and Polymarket despite a late KSTP/SurveyUSA survey showing Craig ahead 42% to 40%, within the poll’s 5.3-point margin of error. Kalshi drew nearly $500,000 in Flanagan-market volume, while Polymarket had more than $250,000.
The traders were right. Flanagan defeated Craig decisively, leading by nearly 20 points with 80% of votes counted. The AP called it the latest victory by an insurgent progressive candidate over the Democratic establishment, after Flanagan campaigned against corporate influence and promised to confront President Donald Trump.
That is the bigger national takeaway. Minnesota does not necessarily change the Senate-control map, but the result reinforces the progressive argument that Democratic voters are rewarding candidates promising a sharper break from the party’s moderate wing.
Tafoya beats Lindell
The Republican side produced the other notable calls of the night. Tafoya won the GOP Senate nomination, while State House Speaker Lisa Demuth beat out a field, including MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, for the GOP governor nomination.
Both races generated meaningful interest because of the recognizable names involved. Kalshi and Polymarket both favored Demuth over Lindell, who had been trying to turn his Trump-world profile into a statewide nomination.
The markets were right again, with Demuth winning the GOP governor primary while Lindell’s campaign fell short.
Those Republican contests had trading appeal because they were open, competitive nomination fights with familiar candidates. The general election is a different story.
Not a Senate control race
Minnesota’s Senate seat is open because Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is not seeking reelection, but Republicans are not being treated as serious favorites in November. Major election handicappers have rated the general election Likely Democratic.
That explains why primary markets generated more interest than the Flanagan-Tafoya race is likely to receive. The name recognition of Tafoya and Lindell, along with the Flanagan-Craig ideological showdown, created a cleaner trading setup than a general election where the Democratic nominee starts with a substantial structural advantage.
Minnesota matters politically as another progressive-versus-moderate test. It does not currently look like one of the races that will decide 2026 midterm election Senate control.
Better than Wisconsin
The prediction market results also contrast with Wisconsin, where prediction markets entered Tuesday with more certainty that ultimately failed to cleanly capture the major outcome.
Minnesota’s headline markets, by comparison, held firm through late polling noise and correctly identified the winners in the Democratic Senate primary, Republican Senate primary and both gubernatorial races.
That does not mean the Minnesota calls were effortless. Flanagan’s price meant prediction markets still assigned nearly a one-in-three chance to Craig, and late polling had made the contest look effectively tied. But on a night when progressive momentum again shaped the Democratic side, traders correctly recognized that Flanagan remained the favorite.
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