World Cup Group L Winner Odds & Predictions
Who is the favorite to win Group L? Our aggregated odds feed has England sitting at 71.5% probability to win Group L, followed by Croatia (19.0%), Ghana (5.5%), and Panama (2.0%). Croatia knocked England out of the 2018 semifinal in a 2–1 result that put them in their first ever final, and the squad still has the depth to make a group-stage repeat plausible. Group play opens Friday, June 17, with England vs Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (4 p.m. ET on Fox) and Ghana vs Panama at BMO Field in Toronto (7 p.m. ET on FS1). The group wraps Saturday, June 27 with Panama vs England at MetLife Stadium and Croatia vs Ghana at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Use the odds table below to find the best odds from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. Odds and probability updated every 30 minutes.
Current Group L Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
ENEngland
Vol $9.9K
Spread 10.5%
Agg
71.5%— +0.0%
O
80.0%
P
71.5%
K
69.5%
CRCroatia
Vol $3.1K
Spread 13.0%
Agg
19.0%— +0.0%
O
32.0%
K
19.5%
P
19.0%
GHGhana
Vol $2.3K
Spread 8.5%
Agg
5.5%↓ -1.2%
O
14.0%
K
8.0%
P
5.5%
PAPanama
Vol $3.4K
Spread 7.6%
Agg
2.0%↓ -1.0%
O
9.0%
K
2.5%
P
1.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EN England | 71.5% — +0.0% | 10.5% | $9.9K |
Kalshi
69.5%
|
Polymarket
71.5%
|
OG
80.0%
|
CR Croatia | 19.0% — +0.0% | 13.0% | $3.1K |
Kalshi
19.5%
|
Polymarket
19.0%
|
OG
32.0%
|
GH Ghana | 5.5% ↓ -1.2% | 8.5% | $2.3K |
Kalshi
8.0%
|
Polymarket
5.5%
|
OG
14.0%
|
PA Panama | 2.0% ↓ -1.0% | 7.6% | $3.4K |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Polymarket
1.5%
|
OG
9.0%
|
Probability Over Time
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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA Panama |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.8¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
GH Ghana |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 7.4¢ | Sell @ K 7¢ | -0.40% | -0.47% |
No | |
EN England |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 70¢ | Sell @ P 70¢ | +0.00% | -0.70% |
No | |
CR Croatia |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 20¢ | Sell @ K 19¢ | -1.00% | -1.19% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EN England |
PA Panama |
Polymarket | A 71.5% | B 1.5% | +70.05% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
PA Panama |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 2.5% | +67.00% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
GH Ghana |
Polymarket | A 71.5% | B 5.5% | +66.00% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
GH Ghana |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 8.0% | +61.50% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
CR Croatia |
Polymarket | A 71.5% | B 19.0% | +52.50% | Buy spread | |
EN England |
CR Croatia |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 19.5% | +50.00% | Buy spread | |
CR Croatia |
PA Panama |
Polymarket | A 19.0% | B 1.5% | +17.55% | Buy spread | |
CR Croatia |
PA Panama |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 2.5% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
CR Croatia |
GH Ghana |
Polymarket | A 19.0% | B 5.5% | +13.50% | Buy spread | |
CR Croatia |
GH Ghana |
Kalshi | A 19.5% | B 8.0% | +11.50% | Buy spread | |
GH Ghana |
PA Panama |
Kalshi | A 8.0% | B 2.5% | +5.50% | Buy spread | |
GH Ghana |
PA Panama |
Polymarket | A 5.5% | B 1.5% | +4.05% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |