NCAA Men’s Tournament Odds and PredictionsFlorida narrowly leads Duke, 14% to 13%

March Madness prediction markets

The best prediction sites offer a wide range of markets on the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, from the national champion and individual games to round-by-round results and tournament props. March Madness will also have a new look in 2027, with the field expanding from 68 to 76 teams and an Opening Round replacing the First Four. Here’s a closer look at the most popular March Madness prediction markets and how they work.

Tournament winner

This is the main March Madness futures market. Kalshi refers to it as the “Men’s College Basketball Champion,” while Polymarket lists it as the “2027 NCAA Tournament Winner.” The terms are different, but it’s the same underlying question – which team will lift the trophy at the end of March Madness?

You can also sell your contracts before they settle. For example, you might buy “yes” contracts on a team before the tournament, and sell them at a higher price if that team reaches the Elite Eight.

Qualify for the championship game

You can also back a team to qualify for the national championship game. If the team reaches the final of March Madness, the contract will resolve to “yes” immediately. It will resolve to “no” if they’re eliminated at any stage.

Reach a certain round

As we draw closer to March Madness, there will be markets for teams to reach a certain stage of the tournament. For example, Kalshi has offered yes/no contracts on whether a team will qualify for the Round of 64, Round of 32, Round of 16, Round of 8, or the “Men’s Semifinals.” That’s essentially the First Round, Second Round, Sweet 16 (Regional Semifinals), Elite Eight (Regional Finals), or the Final Four.

March Madness Most Outstanding Player predictions

Following the conclusion of the championship game, one player will be named the winner of the March Madness Most Outstanding Player award. You can trade on who that will be at both Kalshi and Polymarket. In advance of and during the tournament, star players on teams that are projected to make deep runs are often among the favorites.

March Madness props and futures

There are numerous March Madness props and futures available at prediction markets. The overall tournament winner is the headliner, but there are also markets for qualifiers in each round as it all plays out. Last season, Kalshi offered 25 props ahead of the tournament, including many options for March Madness upsets.

Polymarket listed all of its options under the futures tab and offered trading on 13 markets before the tournament started. There is some crossover on what’s available between the two platforms, but the wording of the contracts is slightly different. Here’s the complete list of March Madness futures at Kalshi.

• Men’s College Basketball Champion
• Men’s Round of 64 Qualifiers
• Men’s Round of 32 Qualifiers
• Men’s Round of 16 Qualifiers
• Men’s Round of 8 Qualifiers
• Men’s Semifinal qualifiers
• Men’s Championship Game Qualifiers

Here’s what Kalshi had on the menu for March Madness tournament props.

• Number of upsets in the Round of 64
• Seed to win the Men’s College Basketball Championship
• #16 seed to win a game in the Round of 64
• #14 seed or higher to win a game in the Round of 64
• #15 or #16 seed to win a game in the Round of 64
• #1 seeds to reach the Semifinals
• Highest numerical seed to qualify for the Round of 32
• #12 seeds to win in the Round of 64
• Sum of seeds in the Men’s College Basketball Semifinals
• Highest numerical seed to qualify for the Round of 16
• Biggest upset in the Men’s College Basketball Tournament
• #1 seeds to reach the Round of 16
• Conference to win Men’s College Basketball Championship
• #13 seed to win a game in the Round of 64
• Number of upsets in the Round of 32
• Highest numerical seed to qualify for the Round of 8
• Highest numerical seed to qualify for the Semifinals
• #1 seeds to reach the Round of 8
• Men’s College Basketball Tournament: Player Points
• #2 seeds to reach the Semifinals
• Sum of seeds in the Men’s College Basketball Championship Game
• Men’s College Basketball Tournament: Triple-Double
• #2 seeds to reach the Round of 8
• Number of upsets in the Round of 8
• Number of upsets in the Round of 16

Markets on NCAA Tournament games

You’ll also find markets on each game during March Madness. These are the most common options:

• Moneyline: A simple prediction on which team will win a game. If you think a team will win, buy “yes” contracts on them.
• Spread: One team is given a handicap, and you can then predict who will cover the point spread. For example, Kentucky might be the 5.5-point favorite against South Carolina. If you think Kentucky will win by at least 6 points, buy “yes” contracts on the Wildcats. If you expect South Carolina to win or lose by up to 5 points, back it to cover the spread.
• Total: A prediction on the total points that both teams will combine for during the game. For example, the line might be 148.5 points. If you think the game will see at least 149 points, buy “yes” contracts. If not, choose “no.”
• First-half winner: Kalshi also offers a first-half winner market on NCAAB games. This market settles at half-time, so the second half is irrelevant.

March Madness schedule

Here are the key dates for the 2027 NCAA men’s basketball tournament:

• March 14: Selection Sunday
• March 16–17: Opening Round
• March 18–19: First Round
• March 20–21: Second Round
• March 25–26: Sweet 16
• March 27–28: Elite Eight
• April 3: Final Four
• April 5: NCAA championship game

The Final Four and national championship game will be held at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

March Madness recent winners and trends

Here’s a look back at the last decade of national champions and who they took down in the title tilt.

• 2026: Michigan over UConn
• 2025: Florida over Houston
• 2024: UConn over Purdue
• 2023: UConn over San Diego St.
• 2022: Kansas over North Carolina
• 2021: Baylor over Gonzaga
• 2020: Tournament not held
• 2019: Virginia over Texas Tech
• 2018: Villanova over Michigan
• 2017: North Carolina over Gonzaga

UCLA leads all programs with 11 national championships, most recently winning in 1995. North Carolina holds the record for Final Four appearances with 21, including its most recent trip in 2022. Michigan State owns the longest active streak of NCAA Tournament appearances, reaching the field for the 28th consecutive time in 2026.

Where to trade or bet on NCAA men’s tournament

The NCAA Tournament is one of the biggest events on the sports calendar, and several prediction markets offer contracts on March Madness. Available markets and platform access can vary, so compare your options before you start trading.

• Kalshi: One of the largest U.S. prediction markets, with extensive sports coverage that includes college basketball. Kalshi offers game winners, spreads, totals, futures, and other event contracts, along with the ability to buy and sell positions as prices move.
• Polymarket: Another leading prediction market with a broad selection of sports contracts. Polymarket offers college basketball markets alongside other sports, politics, economics, and crypto, with low trading fees and a large trading base.
• Gemini Predicts: A CFTC-regulated prediction market built into the broader Gemini platform. Sports are part of a wider selection of event contracts, and traders can buy and sell positions using U.S. dollars without needing to trade cryptocurrency.
• OG Predictions: A sports-focused prediction market with college basketball contracts covering March Madness and conference tournaments. Its broader sports menu includes game and futures markets, although trading fees can be higher than at some competing prediction markets.
• FanDuel Predicts: FanDuel’s prediction market offers college basketball contracts, including March Madness, alongside other major sports. Sports availability is more limited than at some competitors, as FanDuel Predicts currently restricts sports contracts to states where FanDuel does not operate its online sportsbook.

Each platform has its own market selection, fees, liquidity, and availability. Compare those factors, along with the specific March Madness contracts offered, when deciding where to trade.

Advantages of March Madness prediction markets

Prediction markets offer a different way to trade on March Madness than traditional sportsbooks. Here are some of the main advantages:

• Availability: Prediction markets can provide access to March Madness sports contracts in some states where online sports betting is unavailable, such as California and Texas. Availability varies by platform, location, and the type of contract being offered.
• Market-driven pricing: Contract prices are determined by trading activity between market participants rather than odds set directly by a sportsbook. Trading costs vary by platform and can include transaction fees and the bid-ask spread, so compare the total cost before opening a position.
• Flexibility: You can typically sell contracts before a market resolves rather than waiting until the end of the game or tournament. For example, a contract purchased on a team to win March Madness could potentially be sold at a higher or lower price as that team advances through the bracket.
• Market variety: March Madness prediction markets can extend well beyond individual game winners, spreads, and totals. Depending on the platform, you may find contracts covering the national champion, round advancement, seeds, conferences, upsets, player awards, and other tournament outcomes.
• Regulation: U.S. prediction markets offering federally regulated event contracts operate under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, rather than the state-by-state regulatory framework used for traditional sportsbooks. Check each platform’s regulatory status and availability before trading.

NCAA men’s tournament resolution criteria

NCAA Tournament prediction markets settle according to the resolution rules established for each contract. While exact terms vary by platform and market, here’s how resolution generally works:

• Winning contracts: If the outcome specified in a contract occurs, “yes” contracts settle at $1. For example, a championship contract resolves to “yes” if that team wins the NCAA Tournament.
• Losing contracts: If the specified outcome does not occur, “yes” contracts settle at $0. A championship contract can therefore resolve as soon as a team is eliminated from the tournament.
• Resolution sources: Prediction markets use designated sources to determine the official outcome. These can include the NCAA and established sports or news organizations, depending on the platform and contract.
• Cancellations and unusual circumstances: Contract rules also explain how postponements, cancellations, forfeits, disqualifications, or other unusual situations will be handled. Review the specific resolution criteria before trading, as these terms can vary by market and platform.