Group I World Cup Odds Today
France is the heavy favorite in Group I with a 69.7% of advancing, with Norway at 21.3%, Senegal at 8.5%, and Iraq at 1.0% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. France leads the tournament winner board at 16.3% — the top price among all 48 teams. Norway returns for the first time since 1998 behind Erling Haaland's 16 qualifying goals, Senegal arrive as 2022 quarterfinalists and the side that beat France 1-0 to open the 2002 World Cup. Group play opens Tuesday, June 16 with France vs Senegal at MetLife Stadium, followed by Iraq vs Norway at Gillette Stadium. The group continues Monday, June 22 with France vs Iraq and Norway vs Senegal. Group play will close Friday, June 26 with Norway vs France at Gillette Stadium and Senegal vs Iraq at BMO Field in Toronto. Our Group I odds table shows the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini on each outcome, refreshing every 30 minutes.
Current Group I Odds for France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
FRFrance
Vol $21.2K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
-230↓ -1.1%
P
-245
O
-223
K
-208
NONorway
Vol $4.4K
Spread 4.0%
Agg
+371↑ +0.8%
O
+300
K
+365
P
+376
SESenegal
Vol $3.7K
Spread 7.5%
Agg
+1,076↑ +1.0%
O
+525
K
+852
P
+1,076
IRIraq
Vol $2.7K
Spread 6.1%
Agg
+10,426↓ -0.1%
O
+1,329
K
+6,567
P
+10,426
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France | -230 ↓ -1.1% | 3.5% | $21.2K |
Kalshi
-208
|
Polymarket
-245
|
OG
-223
|
NO Norway | +371 ↑ +0.8% | 4.0% | $4.4K |
Kalshi
+365
|
Polymarket
+376
|
OG
+300
|
SE Senegal | +1,076 ↑ +1.0% | 7.5% | $3.7K |
Kalshi
+852
|
Polymarket
+1,076
|
OG
+525
|
IR Iraq | +10,426 ↓ -0.1% | 6.1% | $2.7K |
Kalshi
+6,567
|
Polymarket
+10,426
|
OG
+1,329
|
France is the heavy favorite with a 69.7% probability of advancing
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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 68¢ | Sell @ P 70¢ | +2.00% | +1.32% |
No | |
SE Senegal |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 9¢ | Sell @ K 10¢ | +1.00% | +0.90% |
No | |
IR Iraq |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
NO Norway |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 22¢ | Sell @ K 21¢ | -1.00% | -1.21% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FR France |
IR Iraq |
Polymarket | A -245 | B +10,426 | +70.05% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
IR Iraq |
Kalshi | A -208 | B +6,567 | +66.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
SE Senegal |
Polymarket | A -245 | B +1,076 | +62.50% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
SE Senegal |
Kalshi | A -208 | B +852 | +57.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NO Norway |
Polymarket | A -245 | B +376 | +50.00% | Buy spread | |
FR France |
NO Norway |
Kalshi | A -208 | B +365 | +46.00% | Buy spread | |
NO Norway |
IR Iraq |
Polymarket | A +376 | B +10,426 | +20.05% | Buy spread | |
NO Norway |
IR Iraq |
Kalshi | A +365 | B +6,567 | +20.00% | Buy spread | |
NO Norway |
SE Senegal |
Polymarket | A +376 | B +1,076 | +12.50% | Buy spread | |
NO Norway |
SE Senegal |
Kalshi | A +365 | B +852 | +11.00% | Buy spread | |
SE Senegal |
IR Iraq |
Kalshi | A +852 | B +6,567 | +9.00% | Buy spread | |
SE Senegal |
IR Iraq |
Polymarket | A +1,076 | B +10,426 | +7.55% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Group I schedule
| Date | Time (ET) | Match | Venue | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, June 16 | 3 p.m. | France vs Senegal | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford | Fox |
| Tue, June 16 | 6 p.m. | Iraq vs Norway | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough | Fox |
| Mon, June 22 | 5 p.m. | France vs Iraq | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia | Fox |
| Mon, June 22 | 8 p.m. | Norway vs Senegal | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford | Fox |
| Fri, June 26 | 3 p.m. | Norway vs France | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough | Fox |
| Fri, June 26 | 3 p.m. | Senegal vs Iraq | BMO Field, Toronto | FS1 |
Group I standings
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Senegal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Iraq | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Standings are zeroed out pre-tournament. The first matchday is set for June 16. The team order for Group G follows the official draw seeding (France 1, Senegal 2, Iraq 3, Norway 4). The top two teams will advance directly to the round of 32, with the third-place team eligible if they finish among the eight best thirds across the 12 groups.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |