Group H Odds: Prediction Odds from Kalshi & Polymarket
Prediction markets give Spain an 78.7% implied probability to win Group H, with Uruguay at 17.0%, Saudi Arabia at 2.8%, and Cape Verde at 1.3%. Our odds feed provides near real-time trading information aggregated from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. Spain is one of the top three teams to make win the tournament, along with France — making Group H one of the most lopsided draws of the tournament. Group play opens Monday, June 15 with Spain vs Cape Verde at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, followed that night by Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The group continues Sunday, June 21 with Spain vs Saudi Arabia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and Uruguay vs Cape Verde at Hard Rock Stadium. Group play will close Friday, June 26 with Uruguay vs Spain at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara and Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia at NRG Stadium in Houston. Our Group G odds table below shows the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini on each outcome, refreshing every 30 minutes with total volume for the last 30 days.
Group H Odds: Cape Verde, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Uraguay
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SPSpain
Vol $6.5K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
-369↓ -1.8%
P
-388
O
-376
K
-365
URUruguay
Vol $1.6K
Spread 3.0%
Agg
+488↑ +1.5%
O
+400
K
+456
P
+488
SASaudi Arabia
Vol $1.4K
Spread 6.3%
Agg
+3,536↓ -0.4%
O
+1,011
K
+2,757
P
+3,536
CVCape Verde
Vol $2.1K
Spread 6.0%
Agg
+7,743↑ +0.3%
O
+1,329
K
+6,567
P
+9,424
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP Spain | -369 ↓ -1.8% | 1.0% | $6.5K |
Kalshi
-365
|
Polymarket
-388
|
OG
-376
|
UR Uruguay | +488 ↑ +1.5% | 3.0% | $1.6K |
Kalshi
+456
|
Polymarket
+488
|
OG
+400
|
SA Saudi Arabia | +3,536 ↓ -0.4% | 6.3% | $1.4K |
Kalshi
+2,757
|
Polymarket
+3,536
|
OG
+1,011
|
CV Cape Verde | +7,743 ↑ +0.3% | 6.0% | $2.1K |
Kalshi
+6,567
|
Polymarket
+9,424
|
OG
+1,329
|
Spain is the favorite in Group G, with a 78.7% chance of advancing
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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Saudi Arabia |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 2.8¢ | Sell @ K 3¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
CV Cape Verde |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.2¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | -0.20% | -0.27% |
No | |
SP Spain |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 79¢ | Sell @ P 79¢ | +0.00% | -0.79% |
No | |
UR Uruguay |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 18¢ | Sell @ K 17¢ | -1.00% | -1.17% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP Spain |
CV Cape Verde |
Polymarket | A -388 | B +9,424 | +78.45% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
CV Cape Verde |
Kalshi | A -365 | B +6,567 | +77.00% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
SA Saudi Arabia |
Polymarket | A -388 | B +3,536 | +76.75% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
SA Saudi Arabia |
Kalshi | A -365 | B +2,757 | +75.00% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
UR Uruguay |
Polymarket | A -388 | B +488 | +62.50% | Buy spread | |
SP Spain |
UR Uruguay |
Kalshi | A -365 | B +456 | +60.50% | Buy spread | |
UR Uruguay |
CV Cape Verde |
Kalshi | A +456 | B +6,567 | +16.50% | Buy spread | |
UR Uruguay |
CV Cape Verde |
Polymarket | A +488 | B +9,424 | +15.95% | Buy spread | |
UR Uruguay |
SA Saudi Arabia |
Kalshi | A +456 | B +2,757 | +14.50% | Buy spread | |
UR Uruguay |
SA Saudi Arabia |
Polymarket | A +488 | B +3,536 | +14.25% | Buy spread | |
SA Saudi Arabia |
CV Cape Verde |
Kalshi | A +2,757 | B +6,567 | +2.00% | Buy spread | |
SA Saudi Arabia |
CV Cape Verde |
Polymarket | A +3,536 | B +9,424 | +1.70% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Group H schedule
| Date | Time (ET) | Match | Venue | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, June 15 | 12 p.m. | Spain vs Cape Verde | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta | Fox |
| Mon, June 15 | 6 p.m. | Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami | FS1 |
| Sun, June 21 | 12 p.m. | Spain vs Saudi Arabia | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta | Fox |
| Sun, June 21 | 6 p.m. | Uruguay vs Cape Verde | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami | FS1 |
| Fri, June 26 | 8 p.m. | Uruguay vs Spain | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara | Fox |
| Fri, June 26 | 8 p.m. | Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | NRG Stadium, Houston | FS1 |
Group H standings
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cape Verde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uruguay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Standings are zeroed out pre-tournament — first matchday is set for June 15. Team order follows the official draw seeding (Spain 1, Cape Verde 2, Saudi Arabia 3, Uruguay 4). The top two teams will advance directly to the round of 32, with the third-place team eligible if they finish among the eight best thirds across the 12 groups.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |