World Cup Group F Winner Odds and Predictions
Prediction markets give Netherlands the highest probability of advancing out of Group F at 55.3%, with Japan at 27.5%, Sweden at 14.1%, and Tunisia at 5.1% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. Group play opens Sunday, June 14 with Netherlands vs Japan at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (4 p.m. ET on Fox), followed that night by Sweden vs Tunisia at Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico (10 p.m. ET on FS1). The group continues Saturday, June 20 with Netherlands vs Sweden at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas and Tunisia vs Japan at Estadio BBVA, and closes Thursday, June 25 with Tunisia vs Netherlands at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri and Japan vs Sweden at AT&T Stadium. Our Group F odds table below shows the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini on each outcome, refreshing every 30 minutes.
Group F Prediction Market Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
NENetherlands
Vol $13.7K
Spread 2.0%
Agg
-124↑ +1.3%
O
-133
K
-125
P
-122
JAJapan
Vol $28.8K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
+264↑ +2.0%
P
+264
O
+270
K
+277
SWSweden
Vol $12.1K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
+608↓ -0.9%
O
+426
K
+506
P
+641
TUTunisia
Vol $5.6K
Spread 5.9%
Agg
+1,860↓ -1.0%
O
+809
K
+1,718
P
+1,880
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE Netherlands | -124 ↑ +1.3% | 2.0% | $13.7K |
Kalshi
-125
|
Polymarket
-122
|
OG
-133
|
JA Japan | +264 ↑ +2.0% | 1.0% | $28.8K |
Kalshi
+277
|
Polymarket
+264
|
OG
+270
|
SW Sweden | +608 ↓ -0.9% | 5.5% | $12.1K |
Kalshi
+506
|
Polymarket
+641
|
OG
+426
|
TU Tunisia | +1,860 ↓ -1.0% | 5.9% | $5.6K |
Kalshi
+1,718
|
Polymarket
+1,880
|
OG
+809
|
Netherlands has a 55.3% implied probability to win Group F
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Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE Netherlands |
TU Tunisia |
Kalshi | A -125 | B +1,718 | +50.00% | Buy spread | |
NE Netherlands |
TU Tunisia |
Polymarket | A -122 | B +1,880 | +49.95% | Buy spread | |
NE Netherlands |
SW Sweden |
Polymarket | A -122 | B +641 | +41.50% | Buy spread | |
NE Netherlands |
SW Sweden |
Kalshi | A -125 | B +506 | +39.00% | Buy spread | |
NE Netherlands |
JA Japan |
Kalshi | A -125 | B +277 | +29.00% | Buy spread | |
NE Netherlands |
JA Japan |
Polymarket | A -122 | B +264 | +27.50% | Buy spread | |
JA Japan |
TU Tunisia |
Polymarket | A +264 | B +1,880 | +22.45% | Buy spread | |
JA Japan |
TU Tunisia |
Kalshi | A +277 | B +1,718 | +21.00% | Buy spread | |
JA Japan |
SW Sweden |
Polymarket | A +264 | B +641 | +14.00% | Buy spread | |
SW Sweden |
TU Tunisia |
Kalshi | A +506 | B +1,718 | +11.00% | Buy spread | |
JA Japan |
SW Sweden |
Kalshi | A +277 | B +506 | +10.00% | Buy spread | |
SW Sweden |
TU Tunisia |
Polymarket | A +641 | B +1,880 | +8.45% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Group F schedule
| Date | Time (ET) | Match | Venue | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, June 14 | 4 p.m. | Netherlands vs Japan | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | Fox |
| Sun, June 14 | 10 p.m. | Sweden vs Tunisia | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe | FS1 |
| Sat, June 20 | 1 p.m. | Netherlands vs Sweden | NRG Stadium, Houston | Fox |
| Sun, June 21 | 12 a.m. | Tunisia vs Japan | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe | FS1 |
| Thu, June 25 | 7 p.m. | Japan vs Sweden | AT&T Stadium, Arlington | FS1 |
| Thu, June 25 | 7 p.m. | Tunisia vs Netherlands | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City | Fox |
Group F standings
| Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Japan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Standings are zeroed out pre-tournament. The first matchday for Group F is set for June 14. The team order follows the official draw seeding (Netherlands 1, Japan 2, Sweden 3, Tunisia 4). The top two teams from Group F will advance directly to the round of 32, with the third-place team eligible if they finish among the eight best third-place teams across the 12 groups.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |