World Cup Group B Winner Odds and Predictions
Prediction markets give Switzerland the edge at 51.9%, with Canada at 26.5%, Bosnia and Herzegovina at 21.0%, and Qatar at 2.6% across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini. Bosnia and Herzegovina earned the Pot 4 slot by beating Italy on penalties in the European playoff final, knocking the four-time champion out of a third consecutive World Cup and handing Canada an opener tougher than the seeding suggests. Group play opens Friday, June 12 with Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina at BMO Field in Toronto (3 p.m. ET on Fox), followed Saturday by Qatar vs Switzerland at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California (3 p.m. ET on Fox). The group closes Wednesday, June 24 with Switzerland vs Canada at BC Place in Vancouver and Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar at Lumen Field in Seattle. The odds table below shows the best price from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Gemini on each outcome, refreshing every 30 minutes.
Switzerland Has a 51.9% Chance of Winning Group B
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SWSwitzerland
Vol $11.1K
Spread 3.0%
Agg
51.9%↓ -0.4%
O
54.0%
P
52.0%
K
51.0%
CACanada
Vol $6.5K
Spread 4.0%
Agg
26.5%↑ +1.1%
O
29.0%
K
26.5%
P
25.0%
BAHBosnia and Herzegovina
Vol $13.0K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
21.0%↓ -0.5%
O
24.0%
P
21.0%
K
18.5%
QAQatar
Vol $2.9K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
2.6%↑ +0.6%
O
7.0%
P
2.6%
K
1.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SW Switzerland | 51.9% ↓ -0.4% | 3.0% | $11.1K |
Kalshi
51.0%
|
Polymarket
52.0%
|
OG
54.0%
|
CA Canada | 26.5% ↑ +1.1% | 4.0% | $6.5K |
Kalshi
26.5%
|
Polymarket
25.0%
|
OG
29.0%
|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina | 21.0% ↓ -0.5% | 5.5% | $13.0K |
Kalshi
18.5%
|
Polymarket
21.0%
|
OG
24.0%
|
QA Qatar | 2.6% ↑ +0.6% | 5.5% | $2.9K |
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Polymarket
2.6%
|
OG
7.0%
|
Probability Over Time
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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 19¢ | Sell @ P 20¢ | +1.00% | +0.81% |
No | |
CA Canada |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 26¢ | Sell @ K 26¢ | +0.00% | -0.26% |
No | |
QA Qatar |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 2¢ | Sell @ P 1.2¢ | -0.80% | -0.87% |
No | |
SW Switzerland |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 52¢ | Sell @ P 51¢ | -1.00% | -1.52% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SW Switzerland |
QA Qatar |
Kalshi | A 51.0% | B 1.5% | +49.50% | Buy spread | |
SW Switzerland |
QA Qatar |
Polymarket | A 52.0% | B 2.6% | +49.45% | Buy spread | |
SW Switzerland |
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Kalshi | A 51.0% | B 18.5% | +32.50% | Buy spread | |
SW Switzerland |
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Polymarket | A 52.0% | B 21.0% | +31.00% | Buy spread | |
SW Switzerland |
CA Canada |
Polymarket | A 52.0% | B 25.0% | +27.00% | Buy spread | |
CA Canada |
QA Qatar |
Kalshi | A 26.5% | B 1.5% | +25.00% | Buy spread | |
SW Switzerland |
CA Canada |
Kalshi | A 51.0% | B 26.5% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
CA Canada |
QA Qatar |
Polymarket | A 25.0% | B 2.6% | +22.45% | Buy spread | |
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina |
QA Qatar |
Polymarket | A 21.0% | B 2.6% | +18.45% | Buy spread | |
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina |
QA Qatar |
Kalshi | A 18.5% | B 1.5% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
CA Canada |
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Kalshi | A 26.5% | B 18.5% | +8.00% | Buy spread | |
CA Canada |
BAH Bosnia and Herzegovina |
Polymarket | A 25.0% | B 21.0% | +4.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |