Group A World Cup Odds Today

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Updated 32 minutes ago · 10:29 AM PDT

Which team has the best chance to win Group A? That's the question traders are pricing at Kalshi and Polymarket. Our odds feed has Mexico sitting at 63.5% probability to win Group A, followed by Korea Republic (33.5%), Czechia (2.9%), and South Africa (0.7%). Mexico reached the quarterfinals in both prior home World Cups in 1970 and 1986, and a Group A draw light on heavyweight opposition keeps a third home quarterfinal in play. Group play opens Thursday, June 11, with Mexico vs South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City (3 p.m. ET on Fox) and Korea Republic vs Czechia at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico (10 p.m. ET on FS1). The group wraps Wednesday, June 24 with Czechia vs Mexico at Estadio Azteca and South Africa vs Korea Republic at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico. Use the odds table below to find the best odds from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. Odds and probability updated every 30 minutes.

Largest Spread

0.23%

Czechia → View arbs

Current Favorite

63.5%

Mexico +13.0%

30D Volume (Share)

$1.3M

Momentum Leader

+13.0%

Mexico 30D change

Current Group A Odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Mexico

Vol $723.6K Spread 0.5%

Agg 63.5%

↑ +13.0%

O 64.0%

K 63.5%

P 63.5%

Korea Republic

Vol $234.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 33.5%

↑ +11.6%

O 34.0%

K 33.5%

P 33.5%

Czechia

Vol $124.8K Spread 1.0%

Agg 2.9%

↓ -19.6%

P 3.5%

O 3.0%

K 2.5%

South Africa

Vol $188.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -5.0%

O 1.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Denmark

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

Ireland

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

North Macedonia

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

K 0.0%

Kalshi 0.0%

Vol $0 —

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	OG
ME Mexico	63.5% ↑ +13.0%	0.5%	$723.6K	Kalshi 63.5% 63–64¢ Vol $332.0K	Polymarket 63.5% 63–64¢ Vol $391.6K	OG 64.0% 64¢
KR Korea Republic	33.5% ↑ +11.6%	0.5%	$234.1K	Kalshi 33.5% 33–34¢ Vol $63.5K	Polymarket 33.5% 33–34¢ Vol $170.5K	OG 34.0% 34¢
CZ Czechia	2.9% ↓ -19.6%	1.0%	$124.8K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $41.3K	Polymarket 3.5% 3.3–3.7¢ Vol $83.5K	OG 3.0% 3¢
SA South Africa	0.7% ↓ -5.0%	0.5%	$188.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $83.0K	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $105.2K	OG 1.0% 1¢
DE Denmark	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	OG — —
IR Ireland	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	OG — —
NM North Macedonia	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	OG — —

Mexico is Trending as Favorite to Win

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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

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Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
CZ Czechia	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 3¢	Sell @ P 3.3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SA South Africa	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 34¢	Sell @ K 33¢	-1.00%	-1.33%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
ME Mexico	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 64¢	Sell @ K 63¢	-1.00%	-1.63%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
ME Mexico	DE Denmark	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 0.0%	+63.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
ME Mexico	IR Ireland	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 0.0%	+63.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
ME Mexico	NM North Macedonia	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 0.0%	+63.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
ME Mexico	SA South Africa	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 0.5%	+63.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
ME Mexico	SA South Africa	Polymarket	A 63.5%	B 0.8%	+62.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
ME Mexico	CZ Czechia	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 2.5%	+61.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
ME Mexico	CZ Czechia	Polymarket	A 63.5%	B 3.5%	+60.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	DE Denmark	Kalshi	A 33.5%	B 0.0%	+33.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	IR Ireland	Kalshi	A 33.5%	B 0.0%	+33.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	NM North Macedonia	Kalshi	A 33.5%	B 0.0%	+33.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	SA South Africa	Kalshi	A 33.5%	B 0.5%	+33.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	SA South Africa	Polymarket	A 33.5%	B 0.8%	+32.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	CZ Czechia	Kalshi	A 33.5%	B 2.5%	+31.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KR Korea Republic	CZ Czechia	Polymarket	A 33.5%	B 3.5%	+30.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
ME Mexico	KR Korea Republic	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 33.5%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
ME Mexico	KR Korea Republic	Polymarket	A 63.5%	B 33.5%	+30.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
CZ Czechia	SA South Africa	Polymarket	A 3.5%	B 0.8%	+2.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
CZ Czechia	DE Denmark	Kalshi	A 2.5%	B 0.0%	+2.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
CZ Czechia	IR Ireland	Kalshi	A 2.5%	B 0.0%	+2.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
CZ Czechia	NM North Macedonia	Kalshi	A 2.5%	B 0.0%	+2.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
CZ Czechia	SA South Africa	Kalshi	A 2.5%	B 0.5%	+2.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SA South Africa	DE Denmark	Kalshi	A 0.5%	B 0.0%	+0.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SA South Africa	IR Ireland	Kalshi	A 0.5%	B 0.0%	+0.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
SA South Africa	NM North Macedonia	Kalshi	A 0.5%	B 0.0%	+0.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Free Bracket Pool – Live Game or Printable

Build a free 2026 World Cup bracket pool with no sign-up required and prediction-market odds shown on every match, then share a link to compete in a private pool with friends or climb the public leaderboard. You can also opt for a paper copy with our printable World Cup brackets with the groups filled in. If you are interested in trading, check out our list of World Cup prediction promos.

All 12 World Cup groups
Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia	Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina	Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye	Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao	Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden
Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand	Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde	Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq
Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan	Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo	Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana

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DeFi Rate 2026 World Cup Bracket Challenge: Your picks, live scores, one leaderboard

48 nations. 12 groups. One champion you either saw coming or didn’t. DeFi Rate’s World Cup prediction bracket covers every match from the opening group stage through the final, with scores that update the moment results come in. Create a private pool for friends or family, or compete publicly against everyone playing. Free to enter, no account needed.