World Cup Group A Winner Odds and Predictions
Which team has the best chance to win Group A? That's the question traders are pricing at Kalshi and Polymarket. Our odds feed has Mexico sitting at 47.0% probability to win Group A, followed by Czechia (23.5%), Korea Republic (22.0%), and South Africa (6.6%). Mexico reached the quarterfinals in both prior home World Cups in 1970 and 1986, and a Group A draw light on heavyweight opposition keeps a third home quarterfinal in play. Group play opens Thursday, June 11, with Mexico vs South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City (3 p.m. ET on Fox) and Korea Republic vs Czechia at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico (10 p.m. ET on FS1). The group wraps Wednesday, June 24 with Czechia vs Mexico at Estadio Azteca and South Africa vs Korea Republic at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey, Mexico. Use the odds table below to find the best odds from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini. Odds and probability updated every 30 minutes.
Current Group A Odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
MEMexico
Vol $13.6K
Spread 7.0%
Agg
47.0%↑ +0.5%
O
54.0%
K
47.5%
P
47.0%
CZCzechia
Vol $6.3K
Spread 8.0%
Agg
23.5%— +0.0%
O
29.0%
P
23.5%
K
21.0%
KRKorea Republic
Vol $8.6K
Spread 4.0%
Agg
22.0%↑ +0.1%
O
26.0%
K
23.0%
P
22.0%
SASouth Africa
Vol $244.2K
Spread 6.5%
Agg
6.6%↑ +1.3%
O
12.0%
P
7.6%
K
5.5%
DEDenmark
Vol $5.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
IRIreland
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
NMNorth Macedonia
Vol $220
Spread —
Agg
0.0%— +0.0%
K
0.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Mexico | 47.0% ↑ +0.5% | 7.0% | $13.6K |
Kalshi
47.5%
|
Polymarket
47.0%
|
OG
54.0%
|
CZ Czechia | 23.5% — +0.0% | 8.0% | $6.3K |
Kalshi
21.0%
|
Polymarket
23.5%
|
OG
29.0%
|
KR Korea Republic | 22.0% ↑ +0.1% | 4.0% | $8.6K |
Kalshi
23.0%
|
Polymarket
22.0%
|
OG
26.0%
|
SA South Africa | 6.6% ↑ +1.3% | 6.5% | $244.2K |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Polymarket
7.6%
|
OG
12.0%
|
DE Denmark | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $5.1K |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
IR Ireland | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
NM North Macedonia | 0.0% — +0.0% | — | $220 |
Kalshi
0.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
OG
—
|
Mexico is Trending as Favorite to Win
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Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CZ Czechia |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 22¢ | Sell @ P 22¢ | +0.00% | -0.22% |
No | |
KR Korea Republic |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 23¢ | Sell @ K 22¢ | -1.00% | -1.22% |
No | |
ME Mexico |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 48¢ | Sell @ K 47¢ | -1.00% | -1.47% |
No | |
SA South Africa |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 6¢ | Sell @ P 4.4¢ | -1.60% | -1.67% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Mexico |
DE Denmark |
Kalshi | A 47.5% | B 0.0% | +47.50% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
IR Ireland |
Kalshi | A 47.5% | B 0.0% | +47.50% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
NM North Macedonia |
Kalshi | A 47.5% | B 0.0% | +47.50% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
SA South Africa |
Kalshi | A 47.5% | B 5.5% | +42.00% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
SA South Africa |
Polymarket | A 47.0% | B 7.6% | +39.40% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
CZ Czechia |
Kalshi | A 47.5% | B 21.0% | +26.50% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
KR Korea Republic |
Polymarket | A 47.0% | B 22.0% | +25.00% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
KR Korea Republic |
Kalshi | A 47.5% | B 23.0% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
ME Mexico |
CZ Czechia |
Polymarket | A 47.0% | B 23.5% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
KR Korea Republic |
DE Denmark |
Kalshi | A 23.0% | B 0.0% | +23.00% | Buy spread | |
KR Korea Republic |
IR Ireland |
Kalshi | A 23.0% | B 0.0% | +23.00% | Buy spread | |
KR Korea Republic |
NM North Macedonia |
Kalshi | A 23.0% | B 0.0% | +23.00% | Buy spread | |
CZ Czechia |
DE Denmark |
Kalshi | A 21.0% | B 0.0% | +21.00% | Buy spread | |
CZ Czechia |
IR Ireland |
Kalshi | A 21.0% | B 0.0% | +21.00% | Buy spread | |
CZ Czechia |
NM North Macedonia |
Kalshi | A 21.0% | B 0.0% | +21.00% | Buy spread | |
KR Korea Republic |
SA South Africa |
Kalshi | A 23.0% | B 5.5% | +17.50% | Buy spread | |
CZ Czechia |
SA South Africa |
Polymarket | A 23.5% | B 7.6% | +15.90% | Buy spread | |
CZ Czechia |
SA South Africa |
Kalshi | A 21.0% | B 5.5% | +15.50% | Buy spread | |
KR Korea Republic |
SA South Africa |
Polymarket | A 22.0% | B 7.6% | +14.40% | Buy spread | |
SA South Africa |
DE Denmark |
Kalshi | A 5.5% | B 0.0% | +5.50% | Buy spread | |
SA South Africa |
IR Ireland |
Kalshi | A 5.5% | B 0.0% | +5.50% | Buy spread | |
SA South Africa |
NM North Macedonia |
Kalshi | A 5.5% | B 0.0% | +5.50% | Buy spread | |
KR Korea Republic |
CZ Czechia |
Kalshi | A 23.0% | B 21.0% | +2.00% | Buy spread | |
CZ Czechia |
KR Korea Republic |
Polymarket | A 23.5% | B 22.0% | +1.50% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
| All 12 World Cup groups | ||
|---|---|---|
| Group A Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia | Group B Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina | Group C Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti |
| Group D USA, Paraguay, Australia, Turkiye | Group E Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao | Group F Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, Sweden |
| Group G Belgium, Iran, Egypt, New Zealand | Group H Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde | Group I France, Senegal, Norway, Iraq |
| Group J Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan | Group K Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan, DR Congo | Group L England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana |