Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?
Kash Patel is the favorite to leave the Trump administration in 2026 at prediction markets, trading at 72.7% on "Who will leave the Trump administration this year" market as White House frustration with the FBI director mounts. Tulsi Gabbardholds second on the board, with traders pricing in reported pre-midterm pressure from the White House at 58.2% and the fallout from Joe Kent's resignation in protest of the Iran war. Three Cabinet-level departures have already cleared the board this year. The contract resolves December 31, 2026, with pricing aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), updated hourly. Aggregated cross-platform odds for Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Who will leave the Trump administration this year?
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
KPKash Patel
Vol $226.0K
Spread 7.5%
Agg
72.7%↑ +7.8%
G
75.0%
K
73.5%
P
67.5%
TGTulsi Gabbard
Vol $95.3K
Spread 8.0%
Agg
58.2%↓ -4.6%
G
63.0%
K
61.0%
P
55.0%
TBTodd Blanche
Vol $6.3K
Spread —
Agg
58.0%↑ +7.5%
K
58.0%
AGAmy Gleason
Vol $1.1K
Spread —
Agg
57.0%— +0.0%
K
57.0%
HLHoward Lutnick
Vol $47.4K
Spread 14.5%
Agg
51.5%↓ -1.1%
K
60.5%
G
60.5%
P
46.0%
KNKristi Noem
Vol $2.5K
Spread —
Agg
49.3%↓ -17.9%
P
49.3%
LZLee Zeldin
Vol $5.6K
Spread 47.5%
Agg
45.3%↑ +6.6%
K
47.5%
P
43.0%
G
0.0%
DSDavid Sacks
Vol $524
Spread —
Agg
39.3%↑ +9.9%
P
39.3%
PHPete Hegseth
Vol $117.0K
Spread 37.5%
Agg
37.4%↓ -13.0%
K
37.5%
P
32.0%
G
0.0%
KLKaroline Leavitt
Vol $70.0K
Spread 3.0%
Agg
37.3%↓ -11.9%
G
38.0%
K
37.5%
P
35.0%
RFKRobert F. Kennedy
Vol $22.9K
Spread 38.5%
Agg
36.5%↑ +12.0%
P
38.5%
K
36.5%
G
0.0%
SWSusie Wiles
Vol $16.9K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
36.5%↓ -2.5%
P
41.0%
G
39.0%
K
36.5%
DSDan Scavino
Vol $13
Spread —
Agg
34.5%↑ +1.0%
P
34.5%
CWChris Wright
Vol $3.9K
Spread —
Agg
32.0%— +0.0%
K
32.0%
LMLinda McMahon
Vol $2.7K
Spread —
Agg
32.0%↑ +3.5%
K
32.0%
MHMike Huckabee
Vol $1.7K
Spread —
Agg
28.5%↑ +2.5%
K
28.5%
SDSean Duffy
Vol $1.6K
Spread —
Agg
28.0%↓ -5.0%
K
28.0%
BPBill Pulte
Vol $1.4K
Spread —
Agg
26.5%↓ -7.0%
K
26.5%
KLKelly Loeffler
Vol $194
Spread —
Agg
25.5%↑ +2.0%
K
25.5%
SMStephen Miller
Vol $5.1K
Spread 8.0%
Agg
25.5%↓ -0.4%
P
33.5%
K
25.5%
THTom Homan
Vol $1.5K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
24.5%↑ +6.5%
P
26.0%
K
24.5%
PNPeter Navarro
Vol $250
Spread —
Agg
24.0%↑ +2.0%
K
24.0%
RSRodney Scott
Vol $171
Spread —
Agg
24.0%↓ -3.0%
K
24.0%
STScott Turner
Vol $106
Spread —
Agg
23.0%↑ +1.5%
K
23.0%
SBScott Bessent
Vol $7.2K
Spread 8.0%
Agg
22.4%↑ +3.7%
K
22.5%
P
14.5%
SWSteve Witkoff
Vol $2.3K
Spread —
Agg
22.0%↓ -19.0%
K
22.0%
JRJohn Ratcliffe
Vol $1.3K
Spread 25.5%
Agg
21.6%↑ +8.4%
P
25.5%
K
21.5%
G
0.0%
BCBrendan Carr
Vol $247
Spread —
Agg
21.5%↑ +0.5%
K
21.5%
MOMehmet Oz
Vol $756
Spread —
Agg
21.0%↓ -1.0%
K
21.0%
BRBrooke Rollins
Vol $1.1K
Spread —
Agg
19.5%↓ -2.5%
K
19.5%
DCDoug Collins
Vol $122
Spread —
Agg
19.0%↑ +2.5%
K
19.0%
MRMarco Rubio
Vol $12.0K
Spread 5.0%
Agg
18.6%↓ -0.9%
K
19.0%
P
14.0%
DBDoug Burgum
Vol $233
Spread —
Agg
18.5%↑ +1.5%
K
18.5%
JGJamieson Greer
Vol $117
Spread —
Agg
18.5%↑ +2.5%
K
18.5%
RVRussell Vought
Vol $256
Spread 9.0%
Agg
18.5%↓ -2.5%
P
27.5%
K
18.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KP Kash Patel | 72.7% ↑ +7.8% | 7.5% | $226.0K |
Kalshi
73.5%
|
Polymarket
67.5%
|
Gemini
75.0%
|
TG Tulsi Gabbard | 58.2% ↓ -4.6% | 8.0% | $95.3K |
Kalshi
61.0%
|
Polymarket
55.0%
|
Gemini
63.0%
|
TB Todd Blanche | 58.0% ↑ +7.5% | — | $6.3K |
Kalshi
58.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
AG Amy Gleason | 57.0% — +0.0% | — | $1.1K |
Kalshi
57.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
HL Howard Lutnick | 51.5% ↓ -1.1% | 14.5% | $47.4K |
Kalshi
60.5%
|
Polymarket
46.0%
|
Gemini
60.5%
|
KN Kristi Noem | 49.3% ↓ -17.9% | — | $2.5K |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
49.3%
|
Gemini
—
|
LZ Lee Zeldin | 45.3% ↑ +6.6% | 47.5% | $5.6K |
Kalshi
47.5%
|
Polymarket
43.0%
|
Gemini
0.0%
|
DS David Sacks | 39.3% ↑ +9.9% | — | $524 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
39.3%
|
Gemini
—
|
PH Pete Hegseth | 37.4% ↓ -13.0% | 37.5% | $117.0K |
Kalshi
37.5%
|
Polymarket
32.0%
|
Gemini
0.0%
|
KL Karoline Leavitt | 37.3% ↓ -11.9% | 3.0% | $70.0K |
Kalshi
37.5%
|
Polymarket
35.0%
|
Gemini
38.0%
|
RFK Robert F. Kennedy | 36.5% ↑ +12.0% | 38.5% | $22.9K |
Kalshi
36.5%
|
Polymarket
38.5%
|
Gemini
0.0%
|
SW Susie Wiles | 36.5% ↓ -2.5% | 4.5% | $16.9K |
Kalshi
36.5%
|
Polymarket
41.0%
|
Gemini
39.0%
|
DS Dan Scavino | 34.5% ↑ +1.0% | — | $13 |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
34.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
CW Chris Wright | 32.0% — +0.0% | — | $3.9K |
Kalshi
32.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
LM Linda McMahon | 32.0% ↑ +3.5% | — | $2.7K |
Kalshi
32.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
MH Mike Huckabee | 28.5% ↑ +2.5% | — | $1.7K |
Kalshi
28.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SD Sean Duffy | 28.0% ↓ -5.0% | — | $1.6K |
Kalshi
28.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
BP Bill Pulte | 26.5% ↓ -7.0% | — | $1.4K |
Kalshi
26.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
KL Kelly Loeffler | 25.5% ↑ +2.0% | — | $194 |
Kalshi
25.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SM Stephen Miller | 25.5% ↓ -0.4% | 8.0% | $5.1K |
Kalshi
25.5%
|
Polymarket
33.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
TH Tom Homan | 24.5% ↑ +6.5% | 1.5% | $1.5K |
Kalshi
24.5%
|
Polymarket
26.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
PN Peter Navarro | 24.0% ↑ +2.0% | — | $250 |
Kalshi
24.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
RS Rodney Scott | 24.0% ↓ -3.0% | — | $171 |
Kalshi
24.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
ST Scott Turner | 23.0% ↑ +1.5% | — | $106 |
Kalshi
23.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
SB Scott Bessent | 22.4% ↑ +3.7% | 8.0% | $7.2K |
Kalshi
22.5%
|
Polymarket
14.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
SW Steve Witkoff | 22.0% ↓ -19.0% | — | $2.3K |
Kalshi
22.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
JR John Ratcliffe | 21.6% ↑ +8.4% | 25.5% | $1.3K |
Kalshi
21.5%
|
Polymarket
25.5%
|
Gemini
0.0%
|
BC Brendan Carr | 21.5% ↑ +0.5% | — | $247 |
Kalshi
21.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
MO Mehmet Oz | 21.0% ↓ -1.0% | — | $756 |
Kalshi
21.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
BR Brooke Rollins | 19.5% ↓ -2.5% | — | $1.1K |
Kalshi
19.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
DC Doug Collins | 19.0% ↑ +2.5% | — | $122 |
Kalshi
19.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
MR Marco Rubio | 18.6% ↓ -0.9% | 5.0% | $12.0K |
Kalshi
19.0%
|
Polymarket
14.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
DB Doug Burgum | 18.5% ↑ +1.5% | — | $233 |
Kalshi
18.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
JG Jamieson Greer | 18.5% ↑ +2.5% | — | $117 |
Kalshi
18.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
RV Russell Vought | 18.5% ↓ -2.5% | 9.0% | $256 |
Kalshi
18.5%
|
Polymarket
27.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ Lee Zeldin |
Gemini
→
Kalshi | Buy @ G 0¢ | Sell @ K 47¢ | +47.00% | +46.53% |
Yes | |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Gemini
→
Polymarket | Buy @ G 0¢ | Sell @ P 37¢ | +37.00% | +37.00% |
Yes | |
PH Pete Hegseth |
Gemini
→
Kalshi | Buy @ G 0¢ | Sell @ K 37¢ | +37.00% | +36.63% |
Yes | |
JR John Ratcliffe |
Gemini
→
Kalshi | Buy @ G 0¢ | Sell @ K 20¢ | +20.00% | +19.80% |
Yes | |
HL Howard Lutnick |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 47¢ | Sell @ K 60¢ | +13.00% | +12.40% |
Yes | |
KP Kash Patel |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 68¢ | Sell @ G 74¢ | +6.00% | +5.70% |
Yes | |
SB Scott Bessent |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 17¢ | Sell @ K 22¢ | +5.00% | +4.78% |
Yes | |
TG Tulsi Gabbard |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 56¢ | Sell @ G 60¢ | +4.00% | +3.76% |
Yes | |
MR Marco Rubio |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 17¢ | Sell @ K 18¢ | +1.00% | +0.82% |
No | |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 36¢ | Sell @ K 37¢ | +1.00% | +0.63% |
No | |
SW Susie Wiles |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 37¢ | Sell @ G 38¢ | +1.00% | +0.48% |
No | |
SM Stephen Miller |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 26¢ | Sell @ P 25¢ | -1.00% | -1.26% |
No | |
RV Russell Vought |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 21¢ | Sell @ P 13¢ | -8.00% | -8.21% |
No | |
TH Tom Homan |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 26¢ | Sell @ P 9¢ | -17.00% | -17.26% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KP Kash Patel |
LZ Lee Zeldin |
Gemini | A 75.0% | B 0.0% | +75.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
PH Pete Hegseth |
Gemini | A 75.0% | B 0.0% | +75.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Gemini | A 75.0% | B 0.0% | +75.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
JR John Ratcliffe |
Gemini | A 75.0% | B 0.0% | +75.00% | Buy spread | |
TG Tulsi Gabbard |
LZ Lee Zeldin |
Gemini | A 63.0% | B 0.0% | +63.00% | Buy spread | |
TG Tulsi Gabbard |
PH Pete Hegseth |
Gemini | A 63.0% | B 0.0% | +63.00% | Buy spread | |
TG Tulsi Gabbard |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Gemini | A 63.0% | B 0.0% | +63.00% | Buy spread | |
TG Tulsi Gabbard |
JR John Ratcliffe |
Gemini | A 63.0% | B 0.0% | +63.00% | Buy spread | |
HL Howard Lutnick |
LZ Lee Zeldin |
Gemini | A 60.5% | B 0.0% | +60.50% | Buy spread | |
HL Howard Lutnick |
PH Pete Hegseth |
Gemini | A 60.5% | B 0.0% | +60.50% | Buy spread | |
HL Howard Lutnick |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Gemini | A 60.5% | B 0.0% | +60.50% | Buy spread | |
HL Howard Lutnick |
JR John Ratcliffe |
Gemini | A 60.5% | B 0.0% | +60.50% | Buy spread | |
SW Susie Wiles |
LZ Lee Zeldin |
Gemini | A 39.0% | B 0.0% | +39.00% | Buy spread | |
SW Susie Wiles |
PH Pete Hegseth |
Gemini | A 39.0% | B 0.0% | +39.00% | Buy spread | |
SW Susie Wiles |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Gemini | A 39.0% | B 0.0% | +39.00% | Buy spread | |
SW Susie Wiles |
JR John Ratcliffe |
Gemini | A 39.0% | B 0.0% | +39.00% | Buy spread | |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
LZ Lee Zeldin |
Gemini | A 38.0% | B 0.0% | +38.00% | Buy spread | |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
PH Pete Hegseth |
Gemini | A 38.0% | B 0.0% | +38.00% | Buy spread | |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Gemini | A 38.0% | B 0.0% | +38.00% | Buy spread | |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
JR John Ratcliffe |
Gemini | A 38.0% | B 0.0% | +38.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 36.5% | +37.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
SW Susie Wiles |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 36.5% | +37.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
Gemini | A 75.0% | B 38.0% | +37.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
PH Pete Hegseth |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 37.5% | +36.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 37.5% | +36.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
SW Susie Wiles |
Gemini | A 75.0% | B 39.0% | +36.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
DS Dan Scavino |
Polymarket | A 67.5% | B 34.5% | +33.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
KL Karoline Leavitt |
Polymarket | A 67.5% | B 35.0% | +32.50% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
RFK Robert F. Kennedy |
Polymarket | A 67.5% | B 38.5% | +29.00% | Buy spread | |
KP Kash Patel |
DS David Sacks |
Polymarket | A 67.5% | B 39.3% | +28.20% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.