Prediction Markets Trump Administration Odds

Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?

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Updated 40 minutes ago · 5:48 PM PDT

Amy Gleason is the favorite to leave the Trump administration in 2026 at prediction markets, trading at 42.5% on "Who will leave the Trump administration this year" market as White House frustration with the FBI director mounts. Kash Patelholds second on the board, with traders pricing in reported pre-midterm pressure from the White House at 30.2% and the fallout from Joe Kent's resignation in protest of the Iran war. Three Cabinet-level departures have already cleared the board this year. The contract resolves December 31, 2026, with pricing aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), updated hourly. Aggregated cross-platform odds for Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

3.70%

Kash Patel → View arbs

Current Favorite

42.5%

Amy Gleason 14.5%

30D Volume (Share)

—

Momentum Leader

+9.0%

Doug Collins YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Who will leave the Trump administration this year?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Amy Gleason

Vol $3.5K Spread —

Agg 42.5%

↓ -14.5%

K 42.5%

Kalshi 42.5%

Vol $3.5K 42–43¢

Kash Patel

Vol $91.0K Spread 6.5%

Agg 30.2%

↓ -34.7%

K 30.5%

G 30.5%

P 24.0%

Howard Lutnick

Vol $24.2K Spread 2.5%

Agg 29.5%

↓ -23.1%

P 31.0%

K 29.5%

G 28.5%

Bill Pulte

Vol $3.6K Spread —

Agg 26.5%

↓ -7.0%

K 26.5%

Kalshi 26.5%

Vol $3.6K 26–27¢

Chris Wright

Vol $2.2K Spread —

Agg 26.0%

↓ -6.0%

K 26.0%

Kalshi 26.0%

Vol $2.2K 25–27¢

David Sacks

Vol $628 Spread —

Agg 26.0%

↓ -3.5%

P 26.0%

Polymarket 26.0%

Vol $628 20.7–31.2¢

Pete Hegseth

Vol $37.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 25.7%

↓ -24.7%

P 26.0%

G 26.0%

K 25.5%

Doug Collins

Vol $6.2K Spread —

Agg 25.5%

↑ +9.0%

K 25.5%

Kalshi 25.5%

Vol $6.2K 25–26¢

Susie Wiles

Vol $7.5K Spread 4.0%

Agg 25.5%

↓ -13.5%

K 25.5%

G 24.5%

P 21.5%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy

Vol $27.2K Spread 6.5%

Agg 23.9%

↓ -0.6%

P 29.0%

G 23.0%

K 22.5%

Steve Witkoff

Vol $249 Spread —

Agg 23.5%

↓ -17.5%

K 23.5%

Kalshi 23.5%

Vol $249 23–24¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 22.3%

↓ -44.9%

P 22.3%

Polymarket 22.3%

Vol $1.1K 19.7–24.9¢

Karoline Leavitt

Vol $18.2K Spread 3.0%

Agg 21.5%

↓ -27.7%

G 22.5%

K 21.5%

P 19.5%

Kelly Loeffler

Vol $227 Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↓ -2.0%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $227 21–22¢

Brooke Rollins

Vol $1.3K Spread —

Agg 20.0%

↓ -2.0%

K 20.0%

Kalshi 20.0%

Vol $1.3K 19–21¢

Lee Zeldin

Vol $3.9K Spread 2.0%

Agg 19.0%

↓ -19.7%

K 20.0%

G 20.0%

P 18.0%

Linda McMahon

Vol $353 Spread —

Agg 19.0%

↓ -9.5%

K 19.0%

Kalshi 19.0%

Vol $353 18–20¢

Doug Burgum

Vol $2.8K Spread —

Agg 18.5%

↑ +1.5%

K 18.5%

Kalshi 18.5%

Vol $2.8K 18–19¢

Mehmet Oz

Vol $1.2K Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↓ -4.0%

K 18.0%

Kalshi 18.0%

Vol $1.2K 17–19¢

Rodney Scott

Vol $111 Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↓ -9.0%

K 18.0%

Kalshi 18.0%

Vol $111 17–19¢

Sean Duffy

Vol $839 Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↓ -15.0%

K 18.0%

Kalshi 18.0%

Vol $839 17–19¢

Mike Huckabee

Vol $4.9K Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↓ -8.5%

K 17.5%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $4.9K 17–18¢

Peter Navarro

Vol $741 Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↓ -4.5%

K 17.5%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $741 17–18¢

Dan Scavino

Vol $48 Spread —

Agg 17.2%

↓ -16.4%

P 17.2%

Polymarket 17.2%

Vol $48 3.4–30.9¢

Brendan Carr

Vol $208 Spread —

Agg 17.0%

↓ -4.0%

K 17.0%

Kalshi 17.0%

Vol $208 16–18¢

Russell Vought

Vol $887 Spread 19.0%

Agg 16.5%

↓ -4.5%

P 35.5%

K 16.5%

Tom Homan

Vol $1.7K Spread 10.5%

Agg 16.5%

↓ -1.5%

P 27.0%

K 16.5%

John Ratcliffe

Vol $1.4K Spread 5.0%

Agg 16.3%

↑ +3.1%

G 19.0%

K 18.5%

P 14.0%

Jamieson Greer

Vol $84 Spread —

Agg 16.0%

— +0.0%

K 16.0%

Kalshi 16.0%

Vol $84 15–17¢

Stephen Miller

Vol $11.0K Spread 5.5%

Agg 15.5%

↓ -10.4%

K 15.5%

P 10.0%

Scott Bessent

Vol $5.4K Spread 4.0%

Agg 10.5%

↓ -8.1%

K 10.5%

P 6.5%

Marco Rubio

Vol $13.2K Spread 2.5%

Agg 9.5%

↓ -10.0%

K 9.5%

P 7.0%

Scott Turner

Vol $2.9K Spread —

Agg 9.3%

↓ -12.3%

K 9.3%

Kalshi 9.3%

Vol $2.9K 8.5–10¢

Todd Blanche

Vol $181.8K Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $181.8K 0–100¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $0 Spread 0.0%

Agg 100.0%

Settled

K 100.0%

P 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
AG Amy Gleason	42.5% ↓ -14.5%	—	$3.5K	Kalshi 42.5% 42–43¢ Vol $3.5K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KP Kash Patel	30.2% ↓ -34.7%	6.5%	$91.0K	Kalshi 30.5% 30–31¢ Vol $81.6K	Polymarket 24.0% 22–26¢ Vol $9.4K	Gemini 30.5% 28–33¢
HL Howard Lutnick	29.5% ↓ -23.1%	2.5%	$24.2K	Kalshi 29.5% 29–30¢ Vol $19.0K	Polymarket 31.0% 29–33¢ Vol $5.2K	Gemini 28.5% 28–29¢
BP Bill Pulte	26.5% ↓ -7.0%	—	$3.6K	Kalshi 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
CW Chris Wright	26.0% ↓ -6.0%	—	$2.2K	Kalshi 26.0% 25–27¢ Vol $2.2K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DS David Sacks	26.0% ↓ -3.5%	—	$628	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 26.0% 20.7–31.2¢ Vol $628	Gemini — —
PH Pete Hegseth	25.7% ↓ -24.7%	0.5%	$37.0K	Kalshi 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $29.8K	Polymarket 26.0% 24–28¢ Vol $7.1K	Gemini 26.0% 24–28¢
DC Doug Collins	25.5% ↑ +9.0%	—	$6.2K	Kalshi 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $6.2K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SW Susie Wiles	25.5% ↓ -13.5%	4.0%	$7.5K	Kalshi 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $5.8K	Polymarket 21.5% 20–23¢ Vol $1.8K	Gemini 24.5% 24–25¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	23.9% ↓ -0.6%	6.5%	$27.2K	Kalshi 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $24.7K	Polymarket 29.0% 24–34¢ Vol $2.4K	Gemini 23.0% 21–25¢
SW Steve Witkoff	23.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$249	Kalshi 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $249	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KN Kristi Noem	22.3% ↓ -44.9%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 22.3% 19.7–24.9¢ Vol $1.1K	Gemini — —
KL Karoline Leavitt	21.5% ↓ -27.7%	3.0%	$18.2K	Kalshi 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $13.6K	Polymarket 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $4.6K	Gemini 22.5% 22–23¢
KL Kelly Loeffler	21.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$227	Kalshi 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $227	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
BR Brooke Rollins	20.0% ↓ -2.0%	—	$1.3K	Kalshi 20.0% 19–21¢ Vol $1.3K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
LZ Lee Zeldin	19.0% ↓ -19.7%	2.0%	$3.9K	Kalshi 20.0% 19–21¢ Vol $2.4K	Polymarket 18.0% 15–21¢ Vol $1.5K	Gemini 20.0% 18–22¢
LM Linda McMahon	19.0% ↓ -9.5%	—	$353	Kalshi 19.0% 18–20¢ Vol $353	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DB Doug Burgum	18.5% ↑ +1.5%	—	$2.8K	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $2.8K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MO Mehmet Oz	18.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$1.2K	Kalshi 18.0% 17–19¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RS Rodney Scott	18.0% ↓ -9.0%	—	$111	Kalshi 18.0% 17–19¢ Vol $111	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SD Sean Duffy	18.0% ↓ -15.0%	—	$839	Kalshi 18.0% 17–19¢ Vol $839	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MH Mike Huckabee	17.5% ↓ -8.5%	—	$4.9K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $4.9K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
PN Peter Navarro	17.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$741	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $741	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DS Dan Scavino	17.2% ↓ -16.4%	—	$48	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 17.2% 3.4–30.9¢ Vol $48	Gemini — —
BC Brendan Carr	17.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$208	Kalshi 17.0% 16–18¢ Vol $208	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RV Russell Vought	16.5% ↓ -4.5%	19.0%	$887	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $755	Polymarket 35.5% 13–58¢ Vol $132	Gemini — —
TH Tom Homan	16.5% ↓ -1.5%	10.5%	$1.7K	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $1.7K	Polymarket 27.0% 11–43¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
JR John Ratcliffe	16.3% ↑ +3.1%	5.0%	$1.4K	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $1.3K	Polymarket 14.0% 11–17¢ Vol $41	Gemini 19.0% 17–21¢
JG Jamieson Greer	16.0% — +0.0%	—	$84	Kalshi 16.0% 15–17¢ Vol $84	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SM Stephen Miller	15.5% ↓ -10.4%	5.5%	$11.0K	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $10.2K	Polymarket 10.0% 8–12¢ Vol $862	Gemini — —
SB Scott Bessent	10.5% ↓ -8.1%	4.0%	$5.4K	Kalshi 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $4.3K	Polymarket 6.5% 5–8¢ Vol $1.1K	Gemini — —
MR Marco Rubio	9.5% ↓ -10.0%	2.5%	$13.2K	Kalshi 9.5% 9.2–9.8¢ Vol $10.4K	Polymarket 7.0% 6–8¢ Vol $2.7K	Gemini — —
ST Scott Turner	9.3% ↓ -12.3%	—	$2.9K	Kalshi 9.3% 8.5–10¢ Vol $2.9K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
TB Todd Blanche	100.0% Settled	—	$181.8K	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $181.8K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	100.0% Settled	0.0%	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
KP Kash Patel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 26¢	Sell @ K 30¢	+4.00%	+3.70%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SM Stephen Miller	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 12¢	Sell @ K 15¢	+3.00%	+2.85%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 20¢	Sell @ G 22¢	+2.00%	+1.91%	Yes	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+2.00%	+1.90%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 23¢	Sell @ K 25¢	+2.00%	+1.75%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8¢	Sell @ K 9.2¢	+1.20%	+1.11%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JR John Ratcliffe	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 17¢	Sell @ K 18¢	+1.00%	+0.82%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 23¢	Sell @ P 24¢	+1.00%	+0.77%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 100¢	Sell @ P 99.9¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
HL Howard Lutnick	Gemini → Polymarket	Buy @ G 29¢	Sell @ P 29¢	+0.00%	-0.12%	No	G ↗︎ P ↗︎
LZ Lee Zeldin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 21¢	Sell @ K 19¢	-2.00%	-2.19%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 26¢	Sell @ P 24¢	-2.00%	-2.26%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 17¢	Sell @ P 13¢	-4.00%	-4.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TH Tom Homan	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 17¢	Sell @ P 11¢	-6.00%	-6.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
TG Tulsi Gabbard	SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.5%	+78.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KN Kristi Noem	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 22.3%	+77.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KP Kash Patel	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 24.0%	+76.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	DC Doug Collins	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	DC Doug Collins	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	DS David Sacks	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 26.0%	+74.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	CW Chris Wright	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 26.0%	+74.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	CW Chris Wright	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 26.0%	+74.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 26.0%	+74.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 26.5%	+73.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 26.5%	+73.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	TH Tom Homan	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 27.0%	+73.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 29.0%	+71.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 29.5%	+70.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 29.5%	+70.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	KP Kash Patel	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 30.5%	+69.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KP Kash Patel	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 30.5%	+69.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 31.0%	+69.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RV Russell Vought	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 35.5%	+64.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	AG Amy Gleason	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 42.5%	+57.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	AG Amy Gleason	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 42.5%	+57.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AG Amy Gleason	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 42.5%	B 25.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AG Amy Gleason	DC Doug Collins	Kalshi	A 42.5%	B 25.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AG Amy Gleason	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 42.5%	B 25.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AG Amy Gleason	CW Chris Wright	Kalshi	A 42.5%	B 26.0%	+16.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AG Amy Gleason	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 42.5%	B 26.5%	+16.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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