Prediction Markets Trump Administration Odds

Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?

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Updated 48 minutes ago · 12:48 PM PDT

Todd Blanche is the favorite to leave the Trump administration in 2026 at prediction markets, trading at 58.5% on "Who will leave the Trump administration this year" market as White House frustration with the FBI director mounts. Amy Gleasonholds second on the board, with traders pricing in reported pre-midterm pressure from the White House at 42.5% and the fallout from Joe Kent's resignation in protest of the Iran war. Three Cabinet-level departures have already cleared the board this year. The contract resolves December 31, 2026, with pricing aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), updated hourly. Aggregated cross-platform odds for Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

4.72%

Karoline Leavitt → View arbs

Current Favorite

58.5%

Todd Blanche +8.0%

30D Volume (Share)

—

Momentum Leader

+11.5%

Russell Vought YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Who will leave the Trump administration this year?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Todd Blanche

Vol $39.3K Spread —

Agg 58.5%

↑ +8.0%

K 58.5%

Kalshi 58.5%

Vol $39.3K 58–59¢

Amy Gleason

Vol $12.7K Spread —

Agg 42.5%

↓ -14.5%

K 42.5%

Kalshi 42.5%

Vol $12.7K 42–43¢

David Sacks

Vol $629 Spread —

Agg 36.2%

↑ +6.8%

P 36.2%

Polymarket 36.2%

Vol $629 30.5–41.9¢

Russell Vought

Vol $663 Spread 30.0%

Agg 32.5%

↑ +11.5%

P 47.5%

K 17.5%

Howard Lutnick

Vol $21.4K Spread 2.0%

Agg 31.5%

↓ -21.2%

K 31.5%

G 31.0%

P 29.5%

Kash Patel

Vol $140.4K Spread 1.0%

Agg 30.5%

↓ -34.4%

P 31.5%

K 30.5%

G 30.5%

Dan Scavino

Vol $66 Spread —

Agg 27.5%

↓ -6.0%

P 27.5%

Polymarket 27.5%

Vol $66 2.1–52.9¢

Bill Pulte

Vol $2.8K Spread —

Agg 26.5%

↓ -7.0%

K 26.5%

Kalshi 26.5%

Vol $2.8K 26–27¢

Chris Wright

Vol $1.8K Spread —

Agg 26.5%

↓ -5.5%

K 26.5%

Kalshi 26.5%

Vol $1.8K 26–27¢

Karoline Leavitt

Vol $12.7K Spread 9.0%

Agg 25.6%

↓ -23.5%

K 28.5%

G 28.5%

P 19.5%

Susie Wiles

Vol $11.0K Spread 5.0%

Agg 25.5%

↓ -13.5%

K 25.5%

G 24.5%

P 20.5%

Lee Zeldin

Vol $2.8K Spread 6.0%

Agg 25.2%

↓ -13.6%

P 26.0%

K 21.5%

G 20.0%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy

Vol $24.8K Spread 2.0%

Agg 24.4%

↓ -0.1%

K 24.5%

G 23.5%

P 22.5%

Steve Witkoff

Vol $330 Spread —

Agg 23.5%

↓ -17.5%

K 23.5%

Kalshi 23.5%

Vol $330 23–24¢

Tom Homan

Vol $2.6K Spread 9.5%

Agg 22.3%

↑ +4.3%

P 27.0%

K 17.5%

Kelly Loeffler

Vol $266 Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↓ -2.0%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $266 21–22¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $1.4K Spread —

Agg 20.7%

↓ -46.5%

P 20.7%

Polymarket 20.7%

Vol $1.4K 14.6–26.8¢

Brooke Rollins

Vol $1.7K Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 20.5%

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $1.7K 20–21¢

Pete Hegseth

Vol $34.9K Spread 5.0%

Agg 20.2%

↓ -30.2%

K 22.5%

G 22.0%

P 17.5%

Doug Collins

Vol $5.1K Spread —

Agg 19.5%

↑ +3.0%

K 19.5%

Kalshi 19.5%

Vol $5.1K 19–20¢

Linda McMahon

Vol $584 Spread —

Agg 19.5%

↓ -9.0%

K 19.5%

Kalshi 19.5%

Vol $584 19–20¢

John Ratcliffe

Vol $1.7K Spread 7.0%

Agg 19.0%

↑ +5.8%

K 19.0%

G 17.5%

P 12.0%

Sean Duffy

Vol $676 Spread —

Agg 18.5%

↓ -14.5%

K 18.5%

Kalshi 18.5%

Vol $676 18–19¢

Rodney Scott

Vol $65 Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↓ -9.0%

K 18.0%

Kalshi 18.0%

Vol $65 17–19¢

Mehmet Oz

Vol $418 Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↓ -4.5%

K 17.5%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $418 17–18¢

Mike Huckabee

Vol $5.1K Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↓ -8.5%

K 17.5%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $5.1K 17–18¢

Peter Navarro

Vol $455 Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↓ -4.5%

K 17.5%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $455 17–18¢

Brendan Carr

Vol $275 Spread —

Agg 16.5%

↓ -4.5%

K 16.5%

Kalshi 16.5%

Vol $275 16–17¢

Jamieson Greer

Vol $145 Spread —

Agg 16.0%

— +0.0%

K 16.0%

Kalshi 16.0%

Vol $145 15–17¢

Doug Burgum

Vol $295 Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $295 15–16¢

Stephen Miller

Vol $12.2K Spread 6.0%

Agg 13.5%

↓ -12.4%

K 13.5%

P 7.5%

Marco Rubio

Vol $16.2K Spread 1.7%

Agg 9.2%

↓ -10.3%

K 9.2%

P 7.5%

Scott Turner

Vol $2.9K Spread —

Agg 8.7%

↓ -12.8%

K 8.7%

Kalshi 8.7%

Vol $2.9K 8.1–9.3¢

Scott Bessent

Vol $8.2K Spread 4.5%

Agg 7.8%

↓ -10.8%

K 11.5%

P 7.0%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $0 Spread 0.0%

Agg 100.0%

Settled

K 100.0%

P 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
TB Todd Blanche	58.5% ↑ +8.0%	—	$39.3K	Kalshi 58.5% 58–59¢ Vol $39.3K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
AG Amy Gleason	42.5% ↓ -14.5%	—	$12.7K	Kalshi 42.5% 42–43¢ Vol $12.7K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DS David Sacks	36.2% ↑ +6.8%	—	$629	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 36.2% 30.5–41.9¢ Vol $629	Gemini — —
RV Russell Vought	32.5% ↑ +11.5%	30.0%	$663	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $444	Polymarket 47.5% 6–89¢ Vol $219	Gemini — —
HL Howard Lutnick	31.5% ↓ -21.2%	2.0%	$21.4K	Kalshi 31.5% 31–32¢ Vol $16.0K	Polymarket 29.5% 27–32¢ Vol $5.4K	Gemini 31.0% 28–34¢
KP Kash Patel	30.5% ↓ -34.4%	1.0%	$140.4K	Kalshi 30.5% 30–31¢ Vol $125.0K	Polymarket 31.5% 31–32¢ Vol $15.4K	Gemini 30.5% 28–33¢
DS Dan Scavino	27.5% ↓ -6.0%	—	$66	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 27.5% 2.1–52.9¢ Vol $66	Gemini — —
BP Bill Pulte	26.5% ↓ -7.0%	—	$2.8K	Kalshi 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $2.8K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
CW Chris Wright	26.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$1.8K	Kalshi 26.5% 26–27¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KL Karoline Leavitt	25.6% ↓ -23.5%	9.0%	$12.7K	Kalshi 28.5% 28–29¢ Vol $10.3K	Polymarket 19.5% 16–23¢ Vol $2.5K	Gemini 28.5% 26–31¢
SW Susie Wiles	25.5% ↓ -13.5%	5.0%	$11.0K	Kalshi 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $7.7K	Polymarket 20.5% 19–22¢ Vol $3.3K	Gemini 24.5% 21–28¢
LZ Lee Zeldin	25.2% ↓ -13.6%	6.0%	$2.8K	Kalshi 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 26.0% 25–27¢ Vol $1.2K	Gemini 20.0% 16–24¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	24.4% ↓ -0.1%	2.0%	$24.8K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $21.3K	Polymarket 22.5% 18–27¢ Vol $3.5K	Gemini 23.5% 20–27¢
SW Steve Witkoff	23.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$330	Kalshi 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $330	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
TH Tom Homan	22.3% ↑ +4.3%	9.5%	$2.6K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $2.6K	Polymarket 27.0% 11–43¢ Vol $40	Gemini — —
KL Kelly Loeffler	21.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$266	Kalshi 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $266	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KN Kristi Noem	20.7% ↓ -46.5%	—	$1.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 20.7% 14.6–26.8¢ Vol $1.4K	Gemini — —
BR Brooke Rollins	20.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$1.7K	Kalshi 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $1.7K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
PH Pete Hegseth	20.2% ↓ -30.2%	5.0%	$34.9K	Kalshi 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $26.7K	Polymarket 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $8.2K	Gemini 22.0% 19–25¢
DC Doug Collins	19.5% ↑ +3.0%	—	$5.1K	Kalshi 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $5.1K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
LM Linda McMahon	19.5% ↓ -9.0%	—	$584	Kalshi 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $584	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
JR John Ratcliffe	19.0% ↑ +5.8%	7.0%	$1.7K	Kalshi 19.0% 18–20¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 12.0% 7–17¢ Vol $217	Gemini 17.5% 13–22¢
SD Sean Duffy	18.5% ↓ -14.5%	—	$676	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $676	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RS Rodney Scott	18.0% ↓ -9.0%	—	$65	Kalshi 18.0% 17–19¢ Vol $65	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MO Mehmet Oz	17.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$418	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $418	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MH Mike Huckabee	17.5% ↓ -8.5%	—	$5.1K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $5.1K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
PN Peter Navarro	17.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$455	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $455	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
BC Brendan Carr	16.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$275	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $275	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
JG Jamieson Greer	16.0% — +0.0%	—	$145	Kalshi 16.0% 15–17¢ Vol $145	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DB Doug Burgum	15.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$295	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $295	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SM Stephen Miller	13.5% ↓ -12.4%	6.0%	$12.2K	Kalshi 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $11.1K	Polymarket 7.5% 6–9¢ Vol $1.2K	Gemini — —
MR Marco Rubio	9.2% ↓ -10.3%	1.7%	$16.2K	Kalshi 9.2% 9–9.4¢ Vol $13.3K	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $2.9K	Gemini — —
ST Scott Turner	8.7% ↓ -12.8%	—	$2.9K	Kalshi 8.7% 8.1–9.3¢ Vol $2.9K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SB Scott Bessent	7.8% ↓ -10.8%	4.5%	$8.2K	Kalshi 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $7.3K	Polymarket 7.0% 5–9¢ Vol $913	Gemini — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	100.0% Settled	0.0%	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
KL Karoline Leavitt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 23¢	Sell @ K 28¢	+5.00%	+4.72%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SM Stephen Miller	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 9¢	Sell @ K 13¢	+4.00%	+3.87%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 18¢	Sell @ K 22¢	+4.00%	+3.78%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
LZ Lee Zeldin	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 22¢	Sell @ P 25¢	+3.00%	+2.78%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 22¢	Sell @ K 25¢	+3.00%	+2.75%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 9¢	Sell @ K 11¢	+2.00%	+1.89%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8¢	Sell @ K 9¢	+1.00%	+0.91%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JR John Ratcliffe	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 17¢	Sell @ K 18¢	+1.00%	+0.82%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 100¢	Sell @ P 99.9¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 31¢	Sell @ P 31¢	+0.00%	-0.31%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 32¢	Sell @ K 31¢	-1.00%	-1.31%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 27¢	Sell @ K 24¢	-3.00%	-3.24%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TH Tom Homan	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 18¢	Sell @ P 11¢	-7.00%	-7.18%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 18¢	Sell @ P 6¢	-12.00%	-12.18%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KN Kristi Noem	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 20.7%	+79.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 22.5%	+77.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	LZ Lee Zeldin	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 26.0%	+74.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 26.5%	+73.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	CW Chris Wright	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 26.5%	+73.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	TH Tom Homan	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 27.0%	+73.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	DS Dan Scavino	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 27.5%	+72.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KL Karoline Leavitt	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 28.5%	+71.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 29.5%	+70.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KP Kash Patel	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 30.5%	+69.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 31.5%	+68.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KP Kash Patel	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 31.5%	+68.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	DS David Sacks	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 36.2%	+63.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	AG Amy Gleason	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 42.5%	+57.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RV Russell Vought	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 47.5%	+52.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	TB Todd Blanche	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 58.5%	+41.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Kalshi	A 58.5%	B 24.5%	+34.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 58.5%	B 25.5%	+33.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 58.5%	B 26.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	CW Chris Wright	Kalshi	A 58.5%	B 26.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	KL Karoline Leavitt	Kalshi	A 58.5%	B 28.5%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	KP Kash Patel	Kalshi	A 58.5%	B 30.5%	+28.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi	A 58.5%	B 31.5%	+27.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	KN Kristi Noem	Polymarket	A 47.5%	B 20.7%	+26.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Polymarket	A 47.5%	B 22.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	LZ Lee Zeldin	Polymarket	A 47.5%	B 26.0%	+21.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	TH Tom Homan	Polymarket	A 47.5%	B 27.0%	+20.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	DS Dan Scavino	Polymarket	A 47.5%	B 27.5%	+20.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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