Prediction Markets Trump Administration Odds

Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?

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Updated 58 minutes ago · 8:05 AM PDT

Tulsi Gabbard is the favorite to leave the Trump administration in 2026 at prediction markets, trading at 99.5% on "Who will leave the Trump administration this year" market as White House frustration with the FBI director mounts. Dan Scavinoholds second on the board, with traders pricing in reported pre-midterm pressure from the White House at 67.5% and the fallout from Joe Kent's resignation in protest of the Iran war. Three Cabinet-level departures have already cleared the board this year. The contract resolves December 31, 2026, with pricing aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), updated hourly. Aggregated cross-platform odds for Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

5.83%

Marco Rubio → View arbs

Current Favorite

99.5%

Tulsi Gabbard +36.7%

30D Volume (Share)

$391.7K

Momentum Leader

+36.7%

Tulsi Gabbard YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Who will leave the Trump administration this year?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $68.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 99.5%

↑ +36.7%

P 100.0%

K 99.5%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $18.2K 99.9–100¢

Kalshi 99.5%

Vol $50.0K 99.2–99.8¢

Dan Scavino

Vol $31 Spread —

Agg 67.5%

↑ +34.0%

P 67.5%

Polymarket 67.5%

Vol $31 41–94¢

Todd Blanche

Vol $5.3K Spread —

Agg 63.5%

↑ +13.0%

K 63.5%

Kalshi 63.5%

Vol $5.3K 63–64¢

Kash Patel

Vol $79.1K Spread 5.0%

Agg 57.2%

↓ -7.8%

K 57.5%

P 52.5%

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy

Vol $42.3K Spread 4.5%

Agg 46.3%

↑ +21.8%

P 49.0%

K 44.5%

Amy Gleason

Vol $2.1K Spread —

Agg 43.5%

↓ -13.5%

K 43.5%

Kalshi 43.5%

Vol $2.1K 43–44¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $4.5K Spread —

Agg 41.9%

↓ -25.2%

P 41.9%

Polymarket 41.9%

Vol $4.5K 31.7–52.2¢

Howard Lutnick

Vol $27.5K Spread 7.5%

Agg 37.7%

↓ -14.9%

K 41.5%

P 34.0%

Susie Wiles

Vol $16.8K Spread 6.0%

Agg 37.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 37.5%

P 31.5%

Bill Pulte

Vol $9.7K Spread —

Agg 35.5%

↑ +2.0%

K 35.5%

Kalshi 35.5%

Vol $9.7K 35–36¢

John Ratcliffe

Vol $1.8K Spread 4.5%

Agg 34.8%

↑ +21.6%

P 38.5%

K 34.0%

Pete Hegseth

Vol $60.6K Spread 2.0%

Agg 34.2%

↓ -16.3%

P 35.5%

K 33.5%

Karoline Leavitt

Vol $28.9K Spread 1.0%

Agg 31.4%

↓ -17.8%

K 31.5%

P 30.5%

Russell Vought

Vol $282 Spread 24.0%

Agg 30.5%

↑ +9.5%

P 42.5%

K 18.5%

Lee Zeldin

Vol $4.4K Spread 3.0%

Agg 28.5%

↓ -10.2%

P 31.5%

K 28.5%

Chris Wright

Vol $807 Spread —

Agg 27.5%

↓ -4.5%

K 27.5%

Kalshi 27.5%

Vol $807 25–30¢

Stephen Miller

Vol $2.8K Spread 5.0%

Agg 26.5%

↑ +0.6%

P 29.0%

K 24.0%

Kelly Loeffler

Vol $545 Spread —

Agg 25.5%

↑ +2.0%

K 25.5%

Kalshi 25.5%

Vol $545 23–28¢

David Sacks

Vol $577 Spread —

Agg 25.3%

↓ -4.1%

P 25.3%

Polymarket 25.3%

Vol $577 20.6–30¢

Brooke Rollins

Vol $1.4K Spread —

Agg 25.0%

↑ +3.0%

K 25.0%

Kalshi 25.0%

Vol $1.4K 23–27¢

Linda McMahon

Vol $935 Spread —

Agg 25.0%

↓ -3.5%

K 25.0%

Kalshi 25.0%

Vol $935 23–27¢

Rodney Scott

Vol $418 Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↓ -5.5%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $418 20–23¢

Doug Collins

Vol $223 Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↑ +4.0%

K 20.5%

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $223 19–22¢

Mike Huckabee

Vol $1.4K Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↓ -5.5%

K 20.5%

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $1.4K 19–22¢

Peter Navarro

Vol $326 Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 20.5%

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $326 19–22¢

Sean Duffy

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↓ -12.5%

K 20.5%

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $1.5K 19–22¢

Brendan Carr

Vol $162 Spread —

Agg 18.5%

↓ -2.5%

K 18.5%

Kalshi 18.5%

Vol $162 16–21¢

Mehmet Oz

Vol $1.4K Spread —

Agg 18.5%

↓ -3.5%

K 18.5%

Kalshi 18.5%

Vol $1.4K 18–19¢

Steve Witkoff

Vol $946 Spread —

Agg 18.5%

↓ -22.5%

K 18.5%

Kalshi 18.5%

Vol $946 18–19¢

Tom Homan

Vol $1.4K Spread 2.0%

Agg 18.5%

↑ +0.5%

P 20.5%

K 18.5%

Marco Rubio

Vol $17.8K Spread 7.0%

Agg 17.5%

↓ -2.0%

K 17.5%

P 10.5%

Jamieson Greer

Vol $339 Spread —

Agg 17.0%

↑ +1.0%

K 17.0%

Kalshi 17.0%

Vol $339 16–18¢

Scott Bessent

Vol $5.7K Spread 3.5%

Agg 16.5%

↓ -2.1%

K 18.5%

P 15.0%

Doug Burgum

Vol $342 Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $342 15–16¢

Scott Turner

Vol $1.2K Spread —

Agg 11.0%

↓ -10.5%

K 11.0%

Kalshi 11.0%

Vol $1.2K 9–13¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
TG Tulsi Gabbard	99.5% ↑ +36.7%	0.5%	$68.2K	Kalshi 99.5% 99.2–99.8¢ Vol $50.0K	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $18.2K	Gemini — —
DS Dan Scavino	67.5% ↑ +34.0%	—	$31	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 67.5% 41–94¢ Vol $31	Gemini — —
TB Todd Blanche	63.5% ↑ +13.0%	—	$5.3K	Kalshi 63.5% 63–64¢ Vol $5.3K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KP Kash Patel	57.2% ↓ -7.8%	5.0%	$79.1K	Kalshi 57.5% 57–58¢ Vol $60.7K	Polymarket 52.5% 51–54¢ Vol $18.4K	Gemini — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	46.3% ↑ +21.8%	4.5%	$42.3K	Kalshi 44.5% 44–45¢ Vol $37.6K	Polymarket 49.0% 43–55¢ Vol $4.7K	Gemini — —
AG Amy Gleason	43.5% ↓ -13.5%	—	$2.1K	Kalshi 43.5% 43–44¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KN Kristi Noem	41.9% ↓ -25.2%	—	$4.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 41.9% 31.7–52.2¢ Vol $4.5K	Gemini — —
HL Howard Lutnick	37.7% ↓ -14.9%	7.5%	$27.5K	Kalshi 41.5% 41–42¢ Vol $16.5K	Polymarket 34.0% 33–35¢ Vol $11.0K	Gemini — —
SW Susie Wiles	37.5% ↓ -1.5%	6.0%	$16.8K	Kalshi 37.5% 37–38¢ Vol $13.2K	Polymarket 31.5% 23–40¢ Vol $3.5K	Gemini — —
BP Bill Pulte	35.5% ↑ +2.0%	—	$9.7K	Kalshi 35.5% 35–36¢ Vol $9.7K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
JR John Ratcliffe	34.8% ↑ +21.6%	4.5%	$1.8K	Kalshi 34.0% 33–35¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 38.5% 16–61¢ Vol $266	Gemini — —
PH Pete Hegseth	34.2% ↓ -16.3%	2.0%	$60.6K	Kalshi 33.5% 33–34¢ Vol $46.7K	Polymarket 35.5% 34–37¢ Vol $13.9K	Gemini — —
KL Karoline Leavitt	31.4% ↓ -17.8%	1.0%	$28.9K	Kalshi 31.5% 31–32¢ Vol $23.4K	Polymarket 30.5% 29–32¢ Vol $5.5K	Gemini — —
RV Russell Vought	30.5% ↑ +9.5%	24.0%	$282	Kalshi 18.5% 17–20¢ Vol $282	Polymarket 42.5% 12–73¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
LZ Lee Zeldin	28.5% ↓ -10.2%	3.0%	$4.4K	Kalshi 28.5% 25–32¢ Vol $2.3K	Polymarket 31.5% 26–37¢ Vol $2.1K	Gemini — —
CW Chris Wright	27.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$807	Kalshi 27.5% 25–30¢ Vol $807	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SM Stephen Miller	26.5% ↑ +0.6%	5.0%	$2.8K	Kalshi 24.0% 23–25¢ Vol $2.8K	Polymarket 29.0% 24–34¢ Vol $16	Gemini — —
KL Kelly Loeffler	25.5% ↑ +2.0%	—	$545	Kalshi 25.5% 23–28¢ Vol $545	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DS David Sacks	25.3% ↓ -4.1%	—	$577	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 25.3% 20.6–30¢ Vol $577	Gemini — —
BR Brooke Rollins	25.0% ↑ +3.0%	—	$1.4K	Kalshi 25.0% 23–27¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
LM Linda McMahon	25.0% ↓ -3.5%	—	$935	Kalshi 25.0% 23–27¢ Vol $935	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RS Rodney Scott	21.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$418	Kalshi 21.5% 20–23¢ Vol $418	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DC Doug Collins	20.5% ↑ +4.0%	—	$223	Kalshi 20.5% 19–22¢ Vol $223	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MH Mike Huckabee	20.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$1.4K	Kalshi 20.5% 19–22¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
PN Peter Navarro	20.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$326	Kalshi 20.5% 19–22¢ Vol $326	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SD Sean Duffy	20.5% ↓ -12.5%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi 20.5% 19–22¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
BC Brendan Carr	18.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$162	Kalshi 18.5% 16–21¢ Vol $162	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MO Mehmet Oz	18.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$1.4K	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SW Steve Witkoff	18.5% ↓ -22.5%	—	$946	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $946	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
TH Tom Homan	18.5% ↑ +0.5%	2.0%	$1.4K	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket 20.5% 16–25¢ Vol $53	Gemini — —
MR Marco Rubio	17.5% ↓ -2.0%	7.0%	$17.8K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $12.6K	Polymarket 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $5.2K	Gemini — —
JG Jamieson Greer	17.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$339	Kalshi 17.0% 16–18¢ Vol $339	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SB Scott Bessent	16.5% ↓ -2.1%	3.5%	$5.7K	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $4.9K	Polymarket 15.0% 14–16¢ Vol $796	Gemini — —
DB Doug Burgum	15.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$342	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $342	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
ST Scott Turner	11.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$1.2K	Kalshi 11.0% 9–13¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 11¢	Sell @ K 17¢	+6.00%	+5.83%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 35¢	Sell @ K 41¢	+6.00%	+5.59%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 54¢	Sell @ K 57¢	+3.00%	+2.43%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 16¢	Sell @ K 18¢	+2.00%	+1.82%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 99.8¢	Sell @ P 99.9¢	+0.10%	-0.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 34¢	Sell @ P 34¢	+0.00%	-0.34%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SM Stephen Miller	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 25¢	Sell @ P 24¢	-1.00%	-1.25%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 32¢	Sell @ K 31¢	-1.00%	-1.31%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 45¢	Sell @ P 43¢	-2.00%	-2.45%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TH Tom Homan	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 19¢	Sell @ P 16¢	-3.00%	-3.19%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 40¢	Sell @ K 37¢	-3.00%	-3.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
LZ Lee Zeldin	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 32¢	Sell @ P 26¢	-6.00%	-6.32%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 20¢	Sell @ P 12¢	-8.00%	-8.20%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JR John Ratcliffe	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 35¢	Sell @ P 16¢	-19.00%	-19.35%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
TG Tulsi Gabbard	SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 31.5%	+68.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 33.5%	+66.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 34.0%	+66.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	JR John Ratcliffe	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 34.0%	+65.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 35.5%	+64.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 35.5%	+64.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 37.5%	+62.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	JR John Ratcliffe	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 38.5%	+61.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KN Kristi Noem	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 41.9%	+58.05%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 41.5%	+58.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RV Russell Vought	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 42.5%	+57.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	AG Amy Gleason	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 43.5%	+56.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 44.5%	+55.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 49.0%	+51.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KP Kash Patel	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 52.5%	+47.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KP Kash Patel	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 57.5%	+42.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DS Dan Scavino	SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket	A 67.5%	B 31.5%	+36.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	TB Todd Blanche	Kalshi	A 99.5%	B 63.5%	+36.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DS Dan Scavino	HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket	A 67.5%	B 34.0%	+33.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	DS Dan Scavino	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 67.5%	+32.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DS Dan Scavino	PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket	A 67.5%	B 35.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 33.5%	+30.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	JR John Ratcliffe	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 34.0%	+29.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DS Dan Scavino	JR John Ratcliffe	Polymarket	A 67.5%	B 38.5%	+29.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 35.5%	+28.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 63.5%	B 37.5%	+26.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
DS Dan Scavino	KN Kristi Noem	Polymarket	A 67.5%	B 41.9%	+25.55%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
DS Dan Scavino	RV Russell Vought	Polymarket	A 67.5%	B 42.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 57.5%	B 33.5%	+24.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	JR John Ratcliffe	Kalshi	A 57.5%	B 34.0%	+23.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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