Who Will Leave Trump Administration Next?Amy Gleason is the likeliest, at 53%
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi traders give Stephen Miller the highest chance, 96%, ahead of Amy Gleason at 53%. More than one outcome can resolve Yes. Already settled Yes: Karoline Leavitt, Ric Grenell, Susie Wiles and 2 more. Over the past week on Kalshi, Stephen Miller gained the most, 90 points to 96%.
About even Up 21 pts this week (Kalshi)
Kalshi 53%.
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $188 if correct, before fees.
About even Up 90 pts this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (96%) and Polymarket (6.5%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket at the ask pays $1,449 if correct, before fees.
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Kalshi: $166K (65%) · Polymarket: $89K (35%)
Kalshi: Jan 1, 2027 · Polymarket: Dec 31, 2026
Prices to buy each outcome, or the last trade where no one is selling. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Outcome | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Gleason | 53% | Kalshi53¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Stephen Miller | 51% | Kalshi96.1¢ | Polymarket6.9¢ | ||
| Trent McCotter | 50% | Kalshi50¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Stanley Woodward | 43% | Kalshi44¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Steven Cheung | 42% | Kalshi43¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Will Scharf | 39% | Kalshi40¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Kelly Loeffler | 35% | Kalshi35¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 33% | Kalshi34¢ | Polymarket33¢ | ||
| Brooke Rollins | 31% | Kalshi31¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Sergio Gor | 29% | Kalshi30¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Brad Cooper | 28% | Kalshi29¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Christopher Landau | 27% | Kalshi29¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Kristi Noem | 27% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket26.9¢ | ||
| Mike Huckabee | 25% | Kalshi25¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Kash Patel | 23% | Kalshi24¢ | Polymarket23¢ | ||
| Dan Caine | 23% | Kalshi23¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Steve Witkoff | 22% | Kalshi23¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Todd Blanche | 22% | Kalshi23¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Linda McMahon | 21% | Kalshi23¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Chris Wright | 20% | Kalshi21¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Kevin Hassett | 20% | Kalshi22¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Mike Waltz | 20% | Kalshi21¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Peter Navarro | 20% | Kalshi21¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Joe Gebbia | 19% | Kalshi20¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Tilman Fertitta | 19% | Kalshi21¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Howard Lutnick | 18% | Kalshi21¢ | Polymarket17¢ | ||
| Bill Pulte | 18% | Kalshi18¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Doug Burgum | 18% | Kalshi18¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Doug Collins | 18% | Kalshi18¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Rodney Scott | 16% | Kalshi16¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 15% | Kalshi17¢ | Polymarket14¢ | ||
| Jamieson Greer | 15% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Mehmet Oz | 14% | Kalshi15¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Marco Rubio | 14% | Kalshi16¢ | Polymarket13¢ | ||
| Scott Turner | 14% | Kalshi16¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Sean Duffy | 13% | Kalshi14¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| John Ratcliffe | 13% | Kalshi15¢ | Polymarket12¢ | ||
| Tom Homan | 13% | Kalshi13¢ | Polymarket12¢last trade | ||
| Russell Vought | 10% | Kalshi12¢ | Polymarket9¢ | ||
| Scott Bessent | 9.6% | Kalshi11¢ | Polymarket9.2¢ | ||
| Lee Zeldin | 8.7% | Kalshi11¢ | Polymarket8¢ | ||
| Brendan Carr | 8.1% | Kalshi9¢ | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Dan Scavino | 6.9% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket7.1¢ | ||
| Markwayne Mullin | 6.5% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket7¢ | ||
| David Sacks | 5.5% | KalshiNot listed | Polymarket5.7¢ | ||
| Karoline Leavitt Settled Yes | 20% | KalshiSettled | Polymarket99.9¢last trade | ||
| Ric Grenell Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Susie Wiles Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketSettled | ||
| Todd Blanche Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard Settled Yes | – | KalshiSettled | PolymarketClosed | ||
| James Blair | – | KalshiNo quote | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| JD Vance | – | KalshiNo quote | PolymarketNot listed | ||
| Dan Bongino Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Pam Bondi Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer Closed | – | KalshiNot listed | PolymarketClosed | ||
Kalshi: Open · 5 of 48 settledPolymarket: Open · 1 of 21 settled Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one (a quote more than an hour old is left out; with none newer, the latest one stands alone): the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket's displayed price, or the midpoint of its bid and ask. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Aug 12, 1:37 PM ET and Nov 7, 5:43 PM ET.
The widest gap is on Stephen Miller: Kalshi 96% and Polymarket 6.5%. Our figure is their average.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Stephen Miller gained the most, 90 points to 96%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Sep 6 to Nov 6 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Nov 7, 5:43 PM ET).
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