Prediction Markets Trump Administration Odds

Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?

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Updated 15 minutes ago · 4:48 PM PDT

Amy Gleason is the favorite to leave the Trump administration in 2026 at prediction markets, trading at 36.5% on "Who will leave the Trump administration this year" market as White House frustration with the FBI director mounts. Kristi Noemholds second on the board, with traders pricing in reported pre-midterm pressure from the White House at 34.2% and the fallout from Joe Kent's resignation in protest of the Iran war. Three Cabinet-level departures have already cleared the board this year. The contract resolves December 31, 2026, with pricing aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), updated hourly. Aggregated cross-platform odds for Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

61.66%

Kash Patel → View arbs

Current Favorite

36.5%

Amy Gleason 20.5%

30D Volume (Share)

—

Momentum Leader

+2.1%

John Ratcliffe YTD change

Who will leave the Trump administration this year?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Amy Gleason

Vol $8.0K Spread —

Agg 36.5%

↓ -20.5%

K 36.5%

Kalshi 36.5%

Vol $8.0K 36–37¢

Kristi Noem

Vol $1.6K Spread —

Agg 34.2%

↓ -33.0%

P 34.2%

Polymarket 34.2%

Vol $1.6K 15.3–53¢

Pete Hegseth

Vol $110.0K Spread 7.5%

Agg 30.9%

↓ -19.6%

K 31.0%

G 31.0%

P 23.5%

Dan Scavino

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 29.1%

↓ -4.4%

P 29.1%

Polymarket 29.1%

Vol $0 6.2–52¢

Susie Wiles

Vol $12.5K Spread 3.0%

Agg 27.5%

↓ -11.5%

K 27.5%

G 27.5%

P 24.5%

Howard Lutnick

Vol $13.0K Spread 2.0%

Agg 24.5%

↓ -28.1%

G 26.5%

K 24.5%

P 24.5%

Bill Pulte

Vol $1.0K Spread —

Agg 24.5%

↓ -9.0%

K 24.5%

Kalshi 24.5%

Vol $1.0K 24–25¢

Kash Patel

Vol $20.9K Spread 63.0%

Agg 23.2%

↓ -41.7%

G 84.0%

K 23.5%

P 21.0%

Chris Wright

Vol $975 Spread —

Agg 22.5%

↓ -9.5%

K 22.5%

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $975 22–23¢

David Sacks

Vol $236 Spread —

Agg 21.9%

↓ -7.5%

P 21.9%

Polymarket 21.9%

Vol $236 20.2–23.6¢

Steve Witkoff

Vol $1.6K Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↓ -19.5%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $1.6K 21–22¢

Kelly Loeffler

Vol $323 Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↓ -3.0%

K 20.5%

Kalshi 20.5%

Vol $323 20–21¢

Linda McMahon

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 20.0%

↓ -8.5%

K 20.0%

Kalshi 20.0%

Vol $1.1K 18–22¢

Lee Zeldin

Vol $1.1K Spread 4.5%

Agg 18.8%

↓ -20.0%

P 21.0%

K 16.5%

G 16.5%

Brooke Rollins

Vol $904 Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↓ -4.0%

K 18.0%

Kalshi 18.0%

Vol $904 16–20¢

Mike Huckabee

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 17.0%

↓ -9.0%

K 17.0%

Kalshi 17.0%

Vol $1.5K 15–19¢

Rodney Scott

Vol $755 Spread —

Agg 16.5%

↓ -10.5%

K 16.5%

Kalshi 16.5%

Vol $755 14–19¢

Sean Duffy

Vol $785 Spread —

Agg 16.5%

↓ -16.5%

K 16.5%

Kalshi 16.5%

Vol $785 16–17¢

Tom Homan

Vol $1.0K Spread 3.5%

Agg 16.5%

↓ -1.5%

P 20.0%

K 16.5%

Peter Navarro

Vol $71 Spread —

Agg 16.0%

↓ -6.0%

K 16.0%

Kalshi 16.0%

Vol $71 15–17¢

Doug Burgum

Vol $877 Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $877 15–16¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy

Vol $13.6K Spread 1.5%

Agg 15.5%

↓ -9.0%

P 17.0%

K 15.5%

G 15.5%

John Ratcliffe

Vol $997 Spread 16.0%

Agg 15.3%

↑ +2.1%

K 17.0%

P 13.5%

G 1.0%

Jamieson Greer

Vol $37 Spread —

Agg 15.0%

↓ -1.0%

K 15.0%

Kalshi 15.0%

Vol $37 14–16¢

Scott Turner

Vol $863 Spread —

Agg 15.0%

↓ -6.5%

K 15.0%

Kalshi 15.0%

Vol $863 13–17¢

Brendan Carr

Vol $153 Spread —

Agg 14.0%

↓ -7.0%

K 14.0%

Kalshi 14.0%

Vol $153 12–16¢

Mehmet Oz

Vol $386 Spread —

Agg 14.0%

↓ -8.0%

K 14.0%

Kalshi 14.0%

Vol $386 12–16¢

Russell Vought

Vol $892 Spread 6.5%

Agg 13.8%

↓ -7.2%

P 17.0%

K 10.5%

Doug Collins

Vol $864 Spread —

Agg 12.5%

↓ -4.0%

K 12.5%

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $864 12–13¢

Scott Bessent

Vol $8.3K Spread 4.0%

Agg 12.5%

↓ -6.1%

K 12.5%

P 8.5%

Marco Rubio

Vol $8.8K Spread 2.5%

Agg 10.5%

↓ -9.0%

K 10.5%

P 8.0%

Stephen Miller

Vol $2.8K Spread 3.0%

Agg 10.0%

↓ -15.9%

P 13.0%

K 10.0%

Karoline Leavitt

Vol $24.5K Spread 0.0%

Agg 100.0%

Settled

K 100.0%

P 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $24.5K 0–100¢

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

Todd Blanche

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol — Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

99.9–100¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
AG Amy Gleason	36.5% ↓ -20.5%	—	$8.0K	Kalshi 36.5% 36–37¢ Vol $8.0K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KN Kristi Noem	34.2% ↓ -33.0%	—	$1.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 34.2% 15.3–53¢ Vol $1.6K	Gemini — —
PH Pete Hegseth	30.9% ↓ -19.6%	7.5%	$110.0K	Kalshi 31.0% 30–32¢ Vol $95.8K	Polymarket 23.5% 22–25¢ Vol $14.2K	Gemini 31.0% 29–33¢
DS Dan Scavino	29.1% ↓ -4.4%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 29.1% 6.2–52¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
SW Susie Wiles	27.5% ↓ -11.5%	3.0%	$12.5K	Kalshi 27.5% 27–28¢ Vol $11.4K	Polymarket 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $1.1K	Gemini 27.5% 26–29¢
HL Howard Lutnick	24.5% ↓ -28.1%	2.0%	$13.0K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $11.3K	Polymarket 24.5% 23–26¢ Vol $1.8K	Gemini 26.5% 26–27¢
BP Bill Pulte	24.5% ↓ -9.0%	—	$1.0K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KP Kash Patel	23.2% ↓ -41.7%	63.0%	$20.9K	Kalshi 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $17.7K	Polymarket 21.0% 20–22¢ Vol $3.2K	Gemini 84.0% 84¢
CW Chris Wright	22.5% ↓ -9.5%	—	$975	Kalshi 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $975	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DS David Sacks	21.9% ↓ -7.5%	—	$236	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 21.9% 20.2–23.6¢ Vol $236	Gemini — —
SW Steve Witkoff	21.5% ↓ -19.5%	—	$1.6K	Kalshi 21.5% 21–22¢ Vol $1.6K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
KL Kelly Loeffler	20.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$323	Kalshi 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $323	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
LM Linda McMahon	20.0% ↓ -8.5%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi 20.0% 18–22¢ Vol $1.1K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
LZ Lee Zeldin	18.8% ↓ -20.0%	4.5%	$1.1K	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $768	Polymarket 21.0% 18–24¢ Vol $380	Gemini 16.5% 15–18¢
BR Brooke Rollins	18.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$904	Kalshi 18.0% 16–20¢ Vol $904	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MH Mike Huckabee	17.0% ↓ -9.0%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi 17.0% 15–19¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RS Rodney Scott	16.5% ↓ -10.5%	—	$755	Kalshi 16.5% 14–19¢ Vol $755	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SD Sean Duffy	16.5% ↓ -16.5%	—	$785	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $785	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
TH Tom Homan	16.5% ↓ -1.5%	3.5%	$1.0K	Kalshi 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $963	Polymarket 20.0% 10–30¢ Vol $71	Gemini — —
PN Peter Navarro	16.0% ↓ -6.0%	—	$71	Kalshi 16.0% 15–17¢ Vol $71	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
DB Doug Burgum	15.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$877	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $877	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	15.5% ↓ -9.0%	1.5%	$13.6K	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $9.4K	Polymarket 17.0% 16–18¢ Vol $4.2K	Gemini 15.5% 14–17¢
JR John Ratcliffe	15.3% ↑ +2.1%	16.0%	$997	Kalshi 17.0% 14–20¢ Vol $997	Polymarket 13.5% 10–17¢ Vol $0	Gemini 1.0% 1¢
JG Jamieson Greer	15.0% ↓ -1.0%	—	$37	Kalshi 15.0% 14–16¢ Vol $37	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
ST Scott Turner	15.0% ↓ -6.5%	—	$863	Kalshi 15.0% 13–17¢ Vol $863	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
BC Brendan Carr	14.0% ↓ -7.0%	—	$153	Kalshi 14.0% 12–16¢ Vol $153	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
MO Mehmet Oz	14.0% ↓ -8.0%	—	$386	Kalshi 14.0% 12–16¢ Vol $386	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
RV Russell Vought	13.8% ↓ -7.2%	6.5%	$892	Kalshi 10.5% 9.1–12¢ Vol $887	Polymarket 17.0% 10–24¢ Vol $5	Gemini — —
DC Doug Collins	12.5% ↓ -4.0%	—	$864	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $864	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
SB Scott Bessent	12.5% ↓ -6.1%	4.0%	$8.3K	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $4.3K	Polymarket 8.5% 7–10¢ Vol $4.0K	Gemini — —
MR Marco Rubio	10.5% ↓ -9.0%	2.5%	$8.8K	Kalshi 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $5.8K	Polymarket 8.0% 7–9¢ Vol $3.0K	Gemini — —
SM Stephen Miller	10.0% ↓ -15.9%	3.0%	$2.8K	Kalshi 10.0% 9–11¢ Vol $1.9K	Polymarket 13.0% 9–17¢ Vol $923	Gemini — —
KL Karoline Leavitt	100.0% Settled	0.0%	$24.5K	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $24.5K	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
TB Todd Blanche	100.0% Settled	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	100.0% Settled	—	—	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢	Gemini — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
KP Kash Patel	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 22¢	Sell @ G 84¢	+62.00%	+61.66%	Yes	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
JR John Ratcliffe	Gemini → Kalshi	Buy @ G 1¢	Sell @ K 14¢	+13.00%	+12.86%	Yes	G ↗︎ K ↗︎
PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 25¢	Sell @ K 30¢	+5.00%	+4.70%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 10¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+2.00%	+1.88%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 25¢	Sell @ K 27¢	+2.00%	+1.73%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 9¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+1.00%	+0.90%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
LZ Lee Zeldin	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 17¢	Sell @ P 18¢	+1.00%	+0.83%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 25¢	Sell @ G 26¢	+1.00%	+0.65%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 100¢	Sell @ P 99.9¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 16¢	Sell @ P 16¢	+0.00%	-0.16%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SM Stephen Miller	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 11¢	Sell @ P 9¢	-2.00%	-2.11%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
RV Russell Vought	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 12¢	Sell @ P 10¢	-2.00%	-2.12%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TH Tom Homan	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 17¢	Sell @ P 10¢	-7.00%	-7.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
KP Kash Patel	JR John Ratcliffe	Gemini	A 84.0%	B 1.0%	+83.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	KP Kash Patel	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.0%	+79.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	LZ Lee Zeldin	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.0%	+79.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	KP Kash Patel	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.0%	+79.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	LZ Lee Zeldin	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.0%	+79.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	SW Steve Witkoff	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 21.5%	+78.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	SW Steve Witkoff	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 21.5%	+78.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	DS David Sacks	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.9%	+78.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	DS David Sacks	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 21.9%	+78.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	CW Chris Wright	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 22.5%	+77.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	CW Chris Wright	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 22.5%	+77.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	KP Kash Patel	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	KP Kash Patel	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	PH Pete Hegseth	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	HL Howard Lutnick	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	BP Bill Pulte	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	SW Susie Wiles	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 24.5%	+75.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 27.5%	+72.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	SW Susie Wiles	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 27.5%	+72.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	DS Dan Scavino	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 29.1%	+70.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	DS Dan Scavino	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 29.1%	+70.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
KL Karoline Leavitt	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 31.0%	+69.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
TB Todd Blanche	PH Pete Hegseth	Kalshi	A 100.0%	B 31.0%	+69.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
KP Kash Patel	RFK Robert F. Kennedy	Gemini	A 84.0%	B 15.5%	+68.50%	Buy spread	G ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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Who Will Leave Their Role in Trump Administration?

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Who Will Leave the Trump Administration Next?

Probability Over Time

Who will leave the Trump administration this year?

Arbitrage Scanner

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome Diff

Methodology & Data Mapping

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