2026 Senate Race OddsDemocrats are favored in 20 of 35 Senate races

Which 2026 Senate race odds disagree with the polls?

Democrats hold 47 seats and need 51. The four races below are the ones most likely to decide whether they get there, and in each of them the polls and the prediction market odds currently point in slightly different directions.

Iowa Senate odds: Turek edges ahead at 52%, polls tied

Iowa is an open seat. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson has Trump's endorsement and is campaigning on his record. Democrat Josh Turek, a state legislator, is campaigning on the economy and on his appeal to independents. In their final debate on October 13, Hinson said Turek had missed most of this year's Iowa House floor votes, and PolitiFact confirmed he missed 261 of 445, including the farm bill vote.

In October, the RealClearPolitics average on October 19 had Turek ahead by 0.3 points. Six polls in the average had Hinson ahead and five had Turek. Marist's October 8 to 11 poll had Turek at 48% and Hinson at 45% among likely voters, and Emerson's October 9 poll had Hinson at 47% and Turek at 45%.

Kalshi gave Hinson a 59% chance of winning on October 14 and 57% on October 21. The market has since flipped. As of 7:15 a.m. Eastern, Nov. 3, Turek was at 52.5% on Kalshi and on Polymarket US, up from 52% on Kalshi on Nov. 2. That keeps Iowa the closest Senate race on Kalshi on Election Day. Iowa's polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, according to 270toWin's closing times. Marist also asked likely voters who they expected to win, and 59% said Hinson, which matched the market price in mid-October.

Ohio Senate odds: Brown favored at 71%, two polls say Husted

More than $400 million in ads has been spent or reserved in Ohio through Election Day. Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to JD Vance's seat, is campaigning on gas prices and utility bills. Trump held rallies for him in Vandalia on October 3 and Youngstown on October 12. Sherrod Brown is campaigning through union halls on wages and the cost of living, and Barack Obama was scheduled to rally with him in Cleveland on October 24. The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, has run ads saying Brown supports gender surgery for minors. FactCheck.org found the ads distort his record.

Two polls have Husted ahead, co/efficient by one point and Rasmussen by two. Every other poll in the average has Brown ahead. CNN's October 8 poll had Brown at 49% and Husted at 43% among likely voters, and the RealClearPolitics average on October 19 had Brown up 2.8.

Brown's chance of winning on Kalshi rose from 60% on October 14 to 65% on October 21, the second-largest move of any Senate race that week. As of 7:15 a.m. Eastern, Nov. 3, he was at 71.5% on Kalshi and on Polymarket US, up from 71% on Nov. 2. Ohio's polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

Texas Senate odds: Talarico favored at 74% as polls open

Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, is campaigning on prices and on his personal record. Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, is relying on the state's Republican lean and on turning out Trump voters. Ads from the Senate Leadership Fund's Texas PAC and from Elon Musk's America PAC say Talarico supported taxpayer-funded gender surgery for minors. CNN's fact check found the claim rests on his vote against a broader 2023 bill, and Talarico says he opposes the surgeries.

A CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,492 registered voters, taken October 8 to 16, had Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%. CBS found Talarico ahead among voters focused on prices and on candidate character, and Paxton ahead on party identification. Marist's October 8 to 11 poll had Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters, down from a six-point lead in September.

Kalshi had Talarico at 64% on October 14 and 64% on October 21. He climbed to 76% on Nov. 2 and was at 73.5% as of 7:15 a.m. Eastern, Nov. 3, with Polymarket US also at 73.5%. The Texas Senate market has priced Talarico as the favorite since late September. Texas passed 4 million early ballots in late October, up 74% from the same point in 2022, according to Newsweek's early-vote map.

Maine Senate odds: Jackson up to 73%

Susan Collins voted against the One Big Beautiful Bill, opposed tariffs on Canada and said in the October 13 debate that Trump "did not have a good plan" for the Iran war. She chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee and is campaigning on the federal money she has brought to the state. Troy Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner on the Democratic ballot line this summer, is campaigning against the bill's Medicaid cuts. Bernie Sanders rallied with him in Biddeford on October 11, and Obama has endorsed him. Republicans have a large advantage in ad spending.

InsiderAdvantage's October 16 poll of 1,200 likely voters had Jackson at 49% and Collins at 47%. The polling average on October 20 had Jackson ahead by about two points.

Kalshi had Jackson at 58% on October 14 and 64% on October 21, the largest move of any Senate race that week. He reached about 73% on Nov. 2 and was at 72.5% on Kalshi and on Polymarket US as of 7:15 a.m. Eastern, Nov. 3. Maine was the 51st seat on October 21 when the races were ranked by Democratic probability. After Jackson's rise, that seat moved to Alaska, and as of Nov. 3 it is Ohio, where Brown was at 71.5% on Kalshi; Mary Peltola slipped in Alaska to 67.5% on Kalshi, from 72% on Nov. 2. Democrats' Senate control odds rose from 62% to 65% in the week to October 21 and stand at 87% now.

The Republican case

Republican candidates outperformed their polls in 2020 and 2024. Trafalgar's October 9 and 10 polls had Hinson ahead by two in Iowa and Maine tied. On October 19, Fox News's Bret Baier used RealClearPolitics averages to show Republicans holding the Senate 52-48 if their candidates beat the averages by two to three points again. As of 7:15 a.m. Eastern, Nov. 3, the markets give Republicans about a one-in-four chance of keeping the chamber: about 24% on Kalshi and Polymarket US, down from 26% on Nov. 2.

Checked at 7:15 a.m. Eastern on November 3, Election Day, Kalshi had Democrats favored in 20 of 35 races, the same as Nov. 2 and up from 18 on October 21. Iowa (Turek 52.5%) is the closest race, and Kansas's Democrat was at 63.5%. Alaska was at 67.5% Democratic, Ohio at 71.5%, Maine at 72.5%, Texas at 73.5% and Michigan at 80.5%. South Carolina's Democrat was at 32.5%. Polymarket US lists all 35 races too, and the Polymarket US figures above are its prices as of Nov. 3. Polls close from 6 p.m. Eastern in parts of Indiana and Kentucky to 1 a.m. Eastern in Alaska, and the markets keep trading as results come in. Every card on this page updates through the day. The chamber-level odds are on the midterms hub.

2026 Senate races at a glance

• Seats up for election: 35, including the Florida and Ohio special elections.
• Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats.
• Senate control: The Democratic side needs a net gain of four seats to reach 51.
• What you can trade: Individual Senate winners, Senate control and other Senate outcomes where supported.
• Where our odds come from: We show prices from the prediction markets we track rather than creating our own election forecast.

The board is designed to put the entire Senate market in one place. Trading activity varies by race. Use the venue-level figures on each race card to compare it.

Which Senate races are moving?

The Kalshi table above covers all 35 Senate races, with the closest races first. Use its filters to find competitive contests or races that have moved, then open the race cards to compare the available venue prices.

The Kalshi table shows the Democratic chance, the seven-day change and prices to buy each side. A stale quote shows its last price instead of a current price to buy; open Sources for the observation time.

The table is a discovery tool, not a race rating. The race cards below it show the available exchange prices separately and an average where the same outcome is matched across venues.

The percentage on a card is the price now, not a permanent prediction.

Use the live prices and dated price histories to see how each race has moved during the campaign.

Polling can be part of those moves, but a prediction-market price isn't the same thing as a poll. A poll measures responses from a defined sample of voters at a particular time. A market price reflects where participants are currently willing to buy and sell a contract tied to the final result.

Candidate news, polling, fundraising, endorsements and trading activity itself can all coincide with price changes. The useful number for this page is still the live market price, which is why the cards should update without requiring us to rewrite the article every time a race moves.

How the Senate races connect to control

You can trade Michigan, Texas, Maine or Ohio as individual elections, but those results eventually add up to the same question: which party controls the Senate.

The Democratic side starts from 47 seats and needs to reach 51. That's why traders keep talking about a path to 51 and looking at combinations of races rather than one state in isolation. Compare the live race prices above rather than treating a fixed list of favored parties as a current chamber forecast.

Losing one potential pickup changes the importance of the others. A trader looking at the chamber can therefore move between North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and other states trying to work out which combinations get either side to the final number.

You also can't simply count the party favored in each state and assume that should equal the Senate-control probability. Being favored separately in several close races does not mean a party will win all of those races simultaneously.

Our August 10, 2026 analysis explained why individual races and Senate-control markets diverged; it is a historical example, not a current chamber forecast.

If you want to trade the national outcome rather than an individual state, Senate-control markets compare the Democratic and Republican control outcomes and bring the races together at the chamber level.

What happens with a 50-50 Senate?

Getting from 47 Democratic-aligned seats to 50 would be a three-seat net gain, but under the current vice presidency it would not give Democrats Senate control. The Constitution gives the vice president a vote when the Senate is equally divided, and Vice President JD Vance has already cast tie-breaking Senate votes during the current Congress.

That makes 51 seats the relevant Democratic threshold for the 2026 control calculation.

Compare that majority requirement with the Blue Wave threshold, which requires at least 49 Democratic Senate seats alongside at least 218 House seats.

Keep that separate from the individual winner markets above. If you buy an El-Sayed contract in Michigan or a Talarico contract in Texas, the trade is about who wins that particular election under the contract's rules. Whether that result ultimately changes control of the Senate is a separate question.

How to use our Senate oddsboard

Each card represents a Senate election. Search for a state or candidate, see the outcomes currently available and compare the prices we can match across Kalshi, Polymarket and other supported markets.

Each venue's displayed price is shown separately. Where a card matches an outcome across venues, it also shows their average. That doesn't mean we think that candidate is the better political choice or that the outcome is more likely than the market says. We keep the individual exchange prices visible because two markets can disagree, sometimes by several points.

Volume gives you some context for the price as well. A heavily traded race can have more orders available around the displayed price, while a thinner Senate market can move much more sharply when a larger order comes through.

If a race has more candidates than we can reasonably fit onto one card, use Show all outcomes to open the rest of the market.

Why the same Senate race can have different odds

There isn't one official prediction-market price for a Senate candidate. Kalshi and Polymarket have separate participants, liquidity and order books, so the same outcome can trade at different prices at the same time.

Compare the venue columns on each race card for the current prices and activity.

Those gaps can change quickly. Talarico and Paxton were priced at 50-50 on Kalshi on September 5; by September 15, Kalshi had Talarico at 54%. Those are historical quotes; use the live board for the current prices.

The Average column is the mean of the available venue prices for a matched outcome, not a separate DeFi Rate election forecast. A quote more than two hours old is left out while another venue's quote is newer. Each card's method note identifies the prices used, such as a bid-ask midpoint, a displayed price or a last trade. The venue columns remain separate so you can compare the underlying markets.

How do you bet the Senate race on Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kalshi prices most Senate races as party contracts. The Yes side pays if the Democratic nominee wins. The Buy GOP button on this page buys No on that contract. Nebraska is the exception because an independent, Dan Osborn, is running and Kalshi only lists the Democrat. Alaska, Maine and Texas also have candidate-by-candidate markets. Kalshi can settle a race early once major news outlets call it. Otherwise it settles on the certified result, with a fallback date in 2027.

Polymarket lists each race by candidate and settles on the certified result. Its Michigan and Texas contracts include any runoff, so a position there stays open until the runoff is decided. Polymarket's international exchange is not open to US residents. Polymarket US, which is open to US traders, lists all 35 Senate races by party, with one contract for each party's candidate.

To place a trade on a race:

1. Find the race in the table above and open Sources to see the contract, the quote age and whether the price is a live ask or a stale last trade.
2. Tap Buy Dem or Buy GOP to open the market, then read the rules on runoffs, recounts and the resolution source before you confirm.
3. Check the 24-hour volume on the race card. On November 2, Florida traded $260K in a day and Delaware about $2K. In a thin race your order can move the price, and your fill can be worse than the quote.
4. Enter your amount. You can hold to settlement or sell before the race is called at the market price if there is a buyer.

New traders can open with a bonus. The Kalshi promo code RATE pays a $55 bonus after your first $25 traded, and the Polymarket promo code RATE adds a $25 trading bonus on a $10 deposit. To compare fees, state access and which venues list each race, see our prediction market apps page.