DeFi Rate Senate odds
2026 Senate Races: Live Odds & Prediction Markets
Compare live prediction-market prices for all 35 U.S. Senate elections in 2026 across Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, Gemini and OG. Search by state or candidate, track daily market moves and see how each race could affect Senate control.
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2026 Senate race odds
Compare live candidate and party prices across the prediction markets we track.
35 races shown
🇺🇸 Alabama Senate
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🇺🇸 Alaska Senate
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🇺🇸 Arkansas Senate
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🇺🇸 Colorado Senate
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🇺🇸 Delaware Senate
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🇺🇸 Florida Senate
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🇺🇸 Georgia Senate
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🇺🇸 Idaho Senate
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🇺🇸 Illinois Senate
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🇺🇸 Iowa Senate
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🇺🇸 Kansas Senate
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🇺🇸 Kentucky Senate
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🇺🇸 Louisiana Senate
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🇺🇸 Maine Senate
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🇺🇸 Massachusetts Senate
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🇺🇸 Michigan Senate
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🇺🇸 Minnesota Senate
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🇺🇸 Mississippi Senate
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🇺🇸 Montana Senate
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🇺🇸 Nebraska Senate
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🇺🇸 New Hampshire Senate
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🇺🇸 New Jersey Senate
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🇺🇸 New Mexico Senate
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🇺🇸 North Carolina Senate
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🇺🇸 Ohio Senate
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🇺🇸 Oklahoma Senate
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🇺🇸 Oregon Senate
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🇺🇸 Rhode Island Senate
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🇺🇸 South Carolina Senate
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🇺🇸 South Dakota Senate
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🇺🇸 Tennessee Senate
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🇺🇸 Texas Senate
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🇺🇸 Virginia Senate
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🇺🇸 West Virginia Senate
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🇺🇸 Wyoming Senate
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No Senate races match that search.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 2.1%
Agg
96.1%↓ -1.0%Republican Party
K
97.1%
U
97.0%
P
95.0%
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 2.0%
Agg
4.3%↓ -0.7%Democratic Party
P
5.0%
O
5.0%
K
3.7%
U
3.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 96.1% ↓ -1.0% | 2.1% | — |
Kalshi
97.1%
|
Polymarket
95.0%
|
Polymarket US
97.0%
|
OG
—
|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 4.3% ↓ -0.7% | 2.0% | — |
Kalshi
3.7%
|
Polymarket
5.0%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
OG
5.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 3¢ | Sell @ P 4¢ | +1.00% | +1.00% |
No | |
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 96¢ | Sell @ U 96¢ | +0.00% | +0.00% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket US | A 97.0% | B 3.0% | +94.00% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Kalshi | A 97.1% | B 3.7% | +93.45% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket | A 95.0% | B 5.0% | +90.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Alaska Senate Candidate Odds 2026: Mary Peltola Leads at 73.5%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for Alaska Senate Candidate Odds 2026: the race.
Probability Over Time
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Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
MPMary Peltola
Vol $70.1K
Spread 61.5%
Agg
73.5%↓ -0.7%
K
73.5%
P
73.5%
G
12.0%
DSDan Sullivan
Vol $7.4K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
26.5%↑ +0.5%
K
27.0%
G
27.0%
P
26.5%
DJSDaniel J. Sullivan
Vol $0
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.3%— +0.0%
K
0.5%
P
0.1%
ADAnn Diener
Vol $0
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
RGRichard Grayson
Vol $0
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
P
0.1%
SHSid Hill
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MP Mary Peltola | 73.5% ↓ -0.7% | 61.5% | $70.1K |
Kalshi
73.5%
|
Polymarket
73.5%
|
Gemini
12.0%
|
DS Dan Sullivan | 26.5% ↑ +0.5% | 0.5% | $7.4K |
Kalshi
27.0%
|
Polymarket
26.5%
|
Gemini
27.0%
|
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan | 0.3% — +0.0% | 0.5% | $0 |
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
AD Ann Diener | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $0 |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
RG Richard Grayson | 0.1% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $0 |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
SH Sid Hill | 0.1% — +0.0% | — | $0 |
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MP Mary Peltola |
Gemini
→
Polymarket | Buy @ G 12¢ | Sell @ P 73¢ | +61.00% | +60.95% |
Yes | |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.1¢ | Sell @ K 0¢ | -0.10% | -0.10% |
No | |
AD Ann Diener |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.1¢ | Sell @ K 0¢ | -0.10% | -0.10% |
No | |
RG Richard Grayson |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.1¢ | Sell @ K 0¢ | -0.10% | -0.10% |
No | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 27¢ | Sell @ K 26¢ | -1.00% | -1.26% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MP Mary Peltola |
RG Richard Grayson |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 0.1% | +73.45% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
SH Sid Hill |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 0.1% | +73.45% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
Polymarket | A 73.5% | B 0.1% | +73.45% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
AD Ann Diener |
Polymarket | A 73.5% | B 0.1% | +73.45% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
RG Richard Grayson |
Polymarket | A 73.5% | B 0.1% | +73.45% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
AD Ann Diener |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 0.1% | +73.40% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 0.5% | +73.00% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
DS Dan Sullivan |
Polymarket | A 73.5% | B 26.5% | +47.00% | Buy spread | |
MP Mary Peltola |
DS Dan Sullivan |
Kalshi | A 73.5% | B 27.0% | +46.50% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
RG Richard Grayson |
Kalshi | A 27.0% | B 0.1% | +26.95% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
SH Sid Hill |
Kalshi | A 27.0% | B 0.1% | +26.95% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
AD Ann Diener |
Kalshi | A 27.0% | B 0.1% | +26.90% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
Kalshi | A 27.0% | B 0.5% | +26.50% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
Polymarket | A 26.5% | B 0.1% | +26.45% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
AD Ann Diener |
Polymarket | A 26.5% | B 0.1% | +26.45% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
RG Richard Grayson |
Polymarket | A 26.5% | B 0.1% | +26.45% | Buy spread | |
DS Dan Sullivan |
MP Mary Peltola |
Gemini | A 27.0% | B 12.0% | +15.00% | Buy spread | |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
RG Richard Grayson |
Kalshi | A 0.5% | B 0.1% | +0.45% | Buy spread | |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
SH Sid Hill |
Kalshi | A 0.5% | B 0.1% | +0.45% | Buy spread | |
DJS Daniel J. Sullivan |
AD Ann Diener |
Kalshi | A 0.5% | B 0.1% | +0.40% | Buy spread | |
AD Ann Diener |
RG Richard Grayson |
Kalshi | A 0.1% | B 0.1% | +0.05% | Buy spread | |
AD Ann Diener |
SH Sid Hill |
Kalshi | A 0.1% | B 0.1% | +0.05% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Arkansas Senate Odds 2026: Tom Cotton Leads at 95.0%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Arkansas Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TCTom Cotton
Vol $2.0K
Spread 4.0%
Agg
95.0%↑ +0.8%
O
97.0%
P
95.8%
K
94.2%
G
94.0%
U
93.0%
HSHallie Shoffner
Vol $304
Spread 4.7%
Agg
6.3%↓ -0.3%
O
9.0%
U
8.0%
G
6.5%
K
6.4%
P
4.3%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TC Tom Cotton | 95.0% ↑ +0.8% | 4.0% | $2.0K |
Kalshi
94.2%
|
Polymarket
95.8%
|
Polymarket US
93.0%
|
Gemini
94.0%
|
OG
97.0%
|
HS Hallie Shoffner | 6.3% ↓ -0.3% | 4.7% | $304 |
Kalshi
6.4%
|
Polymarket
4.3%
|
Polymarket US
8.0%
|
Gemini
6.5%
|
OG
9.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TC Tom Cotton |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 93¢ | Sell @ P 95.7¢ | +2.70% | +2.70% |
Yes | |
HS Hallie Shoffner |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 4.6¢ | Sell @ U 7¢ | +2.40% | +2.40% |
Yes |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TC Tom Cotton |
HS Hallie Shoffner |
Polymarket | A 95.8% | B 4.3% | +91.55% | Buy spread | |
TC Tom Cotton |
HS Hallie Shoffner |
Kalshi | A 94.2% | B 6.4% | +87.75% | Buy spread | |
TC Tom Cotton |
HS Hallie Shoffner |
Gemini | A 94.0% | B 6.5% | +87.50% | Buy spread | |
TC Tom Cotton |
HS Hallie Shoffner |
Polymarket US | A 93.0% | B 8.0% | +85.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 2.3%
Agg
96.1%↓ -0.6%Democratic Party
K
97.3%
P
96.1%
U
95.0%
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 2.6%
Agg
2.5%— +0.0%Republican Party
U
5.0%
O
5.0%
P
3.1%
K
2.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 96.1% ↓ -0.6% | 2.3% | — |
Kalshi
97.3%
|
Polymarket
96.1%
|
Polymarket US
95.0%
|
OG
—
|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 2.5% — +0.0% | 2.6% | — |
Kalshi
2.5%
|
Polymarket
3.1%
|
Polymarket US
5.0%
|
OG
5.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 2.8¢ | Sell @ U 4¢ | +1.20% | +1.13% |
No | |
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 95¢ | Sell @ K 97.1¢ | +2.10% | +1.13% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Kalshi | A 97.3% | B 2.5% | +94.85% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket | A 96.1% | B 3.1% | +93.00% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket US | A 95.0% | B 5.0% | +90.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Delaware Senate Odds 2026: Democratic party Leads at 97.8%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Delaware Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DPDemocratic party
Vol $0
Spread 1.9%
Agg
97.8%↓ -0.1%
U
99.0%
K
98.6%
P
97.1%
RPRepublican party
Vol $2
Spread 2.9%
Agg
3.3%— +0.0%
O
4.0%
P
3.3%
U
2.0%
K
1.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic party | 97.8% ↓ -0.1% | 1.9% | $0 |
Kalshi
98.6%
|
Polymarket
97.1%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
OG
—
|
RP Republican party | 3.3% — +0.0% | 2.9% | $2 |
Kalshi
1.1%
|
Polymarket
3.3%
|
Polymarket US
2.0%
|
OG
4.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican party |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 2¢ | Sell @ P 3.2¢ | +1.20% | +1.20% |
No | |
DP Democratic party |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 97.1¢ | Sell @ U 98¢ | +0.90% | +0.90% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic party |
RP Republican party |
Kalshi | A 98.6% | B 1.1% | +97.45% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic party |
RP Republican party |
Polymarket US | A 99.0% | B 2.0% | +97.00% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic party |
RP Republican party |
Polymarket | A 97.1% | B 3.3% | +93.80% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Florida Senate Special Election Odds 2026: Ashley Moody Leads at 90.1%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for Florida Senate Special Election Odds 2026: the race.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AMAshley Moody
Vol $1.1K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
90.1%↓ -0.3%
O
93.0%
P
91.5%
U
90.0%
K
89.5%
G
88.5%
ANAngie Nixon
Vol $2.4K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
9.5%↓ -1.3%
U
13.0%
O
13.0%
G
11.5%
K
10.5%
P
8.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM Ashley Moody | 90.1% ↓ -0.3% | 4.5% | $1.1K |
Kalshi
89.5%
|
Polymarket
91.5%
|
Polymarket US
90.0%
|
Gemini
88.5%
|
OG
93.0%
|
AN Angie Nixon | 9.5% ↓ -1.3% | 4.5% | $2.4K |
Kalshi
10.5%
|
Polymarket
8.5%
|
Polymarket US
13.0%
|
Gemini
11.5%
|
OG
13.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Angie Nixon |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 9¢ | Sell @ U 12¢ | +3.00% | +3.00% |
Yes | |
AM Ashley Moody |
Gemini
→
Polymarket | Buy @ G 89¢ | Sell @ P 91¢ | +2.00% | +1.64% |
Yes |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM Ashley Moody |
AN Angie Nixon |
Polymarket | A 91.5% | B 8.5% | +83.00% | Buy spread | |
AM Ashley Moody |
AN Angie Nixon |
Kalshi | A 89.5% | B 10.5% | +79.05% | Buy spread | |
AM Ashley Moody |
AN Angie Nixon |
Polymarket US | A 90.0% | B 13.0% | +77.00% | Buy spread | |
AM Ashley Moody |
AN Angie Nixon |
Gemini | A 88.5% | B 11.5% | +77.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Georgia Election Odds: Senate and Governor Predictions
Aggregated cross-platform odds for Georgia Election Odds: Senate and Governor Predictions. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US, Gemini Predictions and OG with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.
Which party will win the US Senate race in Georgia in 2026?
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DEDemocrats
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
93.4%↓ -0.2%
O
97.0%
P
93.5%
G
93.5%
K
93.4%
U
93.0%
KLBKeisha Lance Bottoms
Vol —
Spread 21.0%
Agg
52.3%↓ -3.2%
O
61.0%
U
56.0%
G
40.0%
RJRick Jackson
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
43.5%— +0.0%
U
44.0%
G
43.5%
O
43.0%
RERepublicans
Vol —
Spread 4.2%
Agg
6.7%↓ -0.1%
O
10.0%
U
7.0%
K
6.7%
G
6.5%
P
5.9%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE Democrats | 93.4% ↓ -0.2% | 4.0% | — |
Kalshi
93.4%
|
Polymarket
93.5%
|
Polymarket US
93.0%
|
Gemini
93.5%
|
OG
97.0%
|
KLB Keisha Lance Bottoms | 52.3% ↓ -3.2% | 21.0% | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
56.0%
|
Gemini
40.0%
|
OG
61.0%
|
RJ Rick Jackson | 43.5% — +0.0% | 1.0% | — |
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Polymarket US
44.0%
|
Gemini
43.5%
|
OG
43.0%
|
RE Republicans | 6.7% ↓ -0.1% | 4.2% | — |
Kalshi
6.7%
|
Polymarket
5.9%
|
Polymarket US
7.0%
|
Gemini
6.5%
|
OG
10.0%
|
Idaho Senate Odds 2026: Jim Risch Leads at 93.9%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Idaho Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
JRJim Risch
Vol $861
Spread 1.8%
Agg
93.9%↓ -1.0%
P
94.9%
K
93.8%
G
93.5%
U
93.0%
TATodd Achilles
Vol $2.0K
Spread 4.9%
Agg
6.4%↑ +0.7%
U
9.0%
K
6.5%
G
5.5%
P
4.1%
DRDavid Roth
Vol $775
Spread 10.1%
Agg
1.5%↑ +1.0%
G
10.5%
P
1.6%
K
0.4%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JR Jim Risch | 93.9% ↓ -1.0% | 1.8% | $861 |
Kalshi
93.8%
|
Polymarket
94.9%
|
Polymarket US
93.0%
|
Gemini
93.5%
|
TA Todd Achilles | 6.4% ↑ +0.7% | 4.9% | $2.0K |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Polymarket
4.1%
|
Polymarket US
9.0%
|
Gemini
5.5%
|
DR David Roth | 1.5% ↑ +1.0% | 10.1% | $775 |
Kalshi
0.4%
|
Polymarket
1.6%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
10.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR David Roth |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 0.4¢ | Sell @ G 10¢ | +9.60% | +9.49% |
Yes | |
TA Todd Achilles |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 5.1¢ | Sell @ U 8¢ | +2.90% | +2.90% |
Yes | |
JR Jim Risch |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 93¢ | Sell @ P 94.8¢ | +1.80% | +1.80% |
Yes |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JR Jim Risch |
DR David Roth |
Kalshi | A 93.8% | B 0.4% | +93.40% | Buy spread | |
JR Jim Risch |
DR David Roth |
Polymarket | A 94.9% | B 1.6% | +93.30% | Buy spread | |
JR Jim Risch |
TA Todd Achilles |
Polymarket | A 94.9% | B 4.1% | +90.80% | Buy spread | |
JR Jim Risch |
TA Todd Achilles |
Gemini | A 93.5% | B 5.5% | +88.00% | Buy spread | |
JR Jim Risch |
TA Todd Achilles |
Kalshi | A 93.8% | B 6.5% | +87.25% | Buy spread | |
JR Jim Risch |
TA Todd Achilles |
Polymarket US | A 93.0% | B 9.0% | +84.00% | Buy spread | |
JR Jim Risch |
DR David Roth |
Gemini | A 93.5% | B 10.5% | +83.00% | Buy spread | |
TA Todd Achilles |
DR David Roth |
Kalshi | A 6.5% | B 0.4% | +6.15% | Buy spread | |
DR David Roth |
TA Todd Achilles |
Gemini | A 10.5% | B 5.5% | +5.00% | Buy spread | |
TA Todd Achilles |
DR David Roth |
Polymarket | A 4.1% | B 1.6% | +2.50% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Illinois Senate Odds 2026: Juliana Stratton Leads at 97.6%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Illinois Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
JSJuliana Stratton
Vol $70
Spread 2.5%
Agg
97.6%↑ +0.7%
U
99.0%
K
97.8%
P
97.6%
G
96.5%
DTDon Tracy
Vol $839
Spread 1.7%
Agg
2.6%↑ +0.2%
O
4.0%
G
3.5%
U
3.0%
P
2.6%
K
2.4%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JS Juliana Stratton | 97.6% ↑ +0.7% | 2.5% | $70 |
Kalshi
97.8%
|
Polymarket
97.6%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
Gemini
96.5%
|
OG
—
|
DT Don Tracy | 2.6% ↑ +0.2% | 1.7% | $839 |
Kalshi
2.4%
|
Polymarket
2.6%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Gemini
3.5%
|
OG
4.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JS Juliana Stratton |
Gemini
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ G 97¢ | Sell @ U 98¢ | +1.00% | +0.61% |
No | |
DT Don Tracy |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 2.8¢ | Sell @ G 3¢ | +0.20% | +0.12% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JS Juliana Stratton |
DT Don Tracy |
Polymarket US | A 99.0% | B 3.0% | +96.00% | Buy spread | |
JS Juliana Stratton |
DT Don Tracy |
Kalshi | A 97.8% | B 2.4% | +95.40% | Buy spread | |
JS Juliana Stratton |
DT Don Tracy |
Polymarket | A 97.6% | B 2.6% | +95.00% | Buy spread | |
JS Juliana Stratton |
DT Don Tracy |
Gemini | A 96.5% | B 3.5% | +93.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AHAshley Hinson
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
60.5%— +0.0%Republican Party
K
60.5%
U
59.0%
JTJosh Turek
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
40.5%— +0.0%Democratic Party
K
40.5%
U
38.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AH Ashley Hinson Republican Party | 60.5% — +0.0% | 1.5% | — |
Kalshi
60.5%
|
Polymarket US
59.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
JT Josh Turek Democratic Party | 40.5% — +0.0% | 2.5% | — |
Kalshi
40.5%
|
Polymarket US
38.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JT Josh Turek Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 38¢ | Sell @ K 40¢ | +2.00% | +1.60% |
Yes | |
AH Ashley Hinson Republican Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 59¢ | Sell @ K 60¢ | +1.00% | +0.40% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AH Ashley Hinson |
JT Josh Turek |
Polymarket US | A 59.0% | B 38.0% | +21.00% | Buy spread | |
AH Ashley Hinson |
JT Josh Turek |
Kalshi | A 60.5% | B 40.5% | +20.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RMRoger Marshall
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
71.5%↓ -2.0%Republican Party
U
73.0%
K
71.5%
AHAdam Hamilton
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
28.5%↑ +2.0%Democratic Party
U
30.0%
K
28.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RM Roger Marshall Republican Party | 71.5% ↓ -2.0% | 1.5% | — |
Kalshi
71.5%
|
Polymarket US
73.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AH Adam Hamilton Democratic Party | 28.5% ↑ +2.0% | 1.5% | — |
Kalshi
28.5%
|
Polymarket US
30.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AH Adam Hamilton Democratic Party |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 29¢ | Sell @ U 29¢ | +0.00% | -0.29% |
No | |
RM Roger Marshall Republican Party |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 72¢ | Sell @ U 72¢ | +0.00% | -0.72% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RM Roger Marshall |
AH Adam Hamilton |
Kalshi | A 71.5% | B 28.5% | +43.00% | Buy spread | |
RM Roger Marshall |
AH Adam Hamilton |
Polymarket US | A 73.0% | B 30.0% | +43.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Kentucky Senate Odds 2026: Andy Barr Leads at 94.4%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Kentucky Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
ABAndy Barr
Vol $999
Spread 2.5%
Agg
94.4%↓ -0.2%
U
96.0%
P
95.9%
K
94.4%
G
93.5%
CBCharles Booker
Vol $31
Spread 2.9%
Agg
5.5%↓ -0.6%
U
6.0%
K
5.5%
G
5.5%
P
3.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB Andy Barr | 94.4% ↓ -0.2% | 2.5% | $999 |
Kalshi
94.4%
|
Polymarket
95.9%
|
Polymarket US
96.0%
|
Gemini
93.5%
|
CB Charles Booker | 5.5% ↓ -0.6% | 2.9% | $31 |
Kalshi
5.5%
|
Polymarket
3.1%
|
Polymarket US
6.0%
|
Gemini
5.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Charles Booker |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 3.6¢ | Sell @ U 5¢ | +1.40% | +1.40% |
No | |
AB Andy Barr |
Gemini
→
Polymarket | Buy @ G 94¢ | Sell @ P 95.3¢ | +1.30% | +0.92% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB Andy Barr |
CB Charles Booker |
Polymarket | A 95.9% | B 3.1% | +92.80% | Buy spread | |
AB Andy Barr |
CB Charles Booker |
Polymarket US | A 96.0% | B 6.0% | +90.00% | Buy spread | |
AB Andy Barr |
CB Charles Booker |
Kalshi | A 94.4% | B 5.5% | +88.90% | Buy spread | |
AB Andy Barr |
CB Charles Booker |
Gemini | A 93.5% | B 5.5% | +88.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
93.1%↑ +0.1%Republican Party
U
94.0%
K
93.4%
P
92.5%
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 0.8%
Agg
6.8%↑ +0.3%Democratic Party
K
6.8%
P
6.5%
U
6.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 93.1% ↑ +0.1% | 1.5% | — |
Kalshi
93.4%
|
Polymarket
92.5%
|
Polymarket US
94.0%
|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 6.8% ↑ +0.3% | 0.8% | — |
Kalshi
6.8%
|
Polymarket
6.5%
|
Polymarket US
6.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 6¢ | Sell @ K 6.7¢ | +0.70% | +0.63% |
No | |
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 93¢ | Sell @ U 93¢ | +0.00% | +0.00% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket US | A 94.0% | B 6.0% | +88.00% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Kalshi | A 93.4% | B 6.8% | +86.55% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket | A 92.5% | B 6.5% | +86.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Maine Senate Candidate Odds: Troy Jackson Leads
Kalshi’s candidate-specific Maine Senate market provides a deeper view than the party-winner contract alone. Troy Jackson currently leads at 69.5%, ahead of Susan Collins at 31.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG for the named candidates as the November race evolves.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Maine Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current Maine Senate Candidate Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
TJTroy Jackson
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
69.5%↑ +5.0%
O
70.0%
K
69.5%
G
69.5%
U
66.0%
SCSusan Collins
Vol —
Spread 4.5%
Agg
31.5%↓ -4.0%
U
36.0%
O
36.0%
G
33.5%
K
31.5%
AKIAngus King III
Vol $6
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
BBBrian Bryant
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
DKDan Kleban
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
GPGraham Platner
Vol $1.8K
Spread —
Agg
0.1%↓ -0.1%
K
0.1%
JMJanet Mills
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
JGJared Golden
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
MDMattie Daughtrey
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
NSNirav Shah
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
PDPatrick Dempsey
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
SGSara Gideon
Vol $9
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
SBShenna Bellows
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
SKStephen King
Vol $2
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
VGValli Geiger
Vol $1
Spread —
Agg
0.1%— +0.0%
K
0.1%
Maine Senate Candidate Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SC Susan Collins |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 32¢ | Sell @ U 35¢ | +3.00% | +2.68% |
Yes | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 66¢ | Sell @ K 69¢ | +3.00% | +2.31% |
Yes |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TJ Troy Jackson |
AKI Angus King III |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
BB Brian Bryant |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
DK Dan Kleban |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
GP Graham Platner |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
JM Janet Mills |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
JG Jared Golden |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
MD Mattie Daughtrey |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
NS Nirav Shah |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 0.1% | +69.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
SC Susan Collins |
Kalshi | A 69.5% | B 31.5% | +38.00% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
SC Susan Collins |
Gemini | A 69.5% | B 33.5% | +36.00% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
AKI Angus King III |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
BB Brian Bryant |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
DK Dan Kleban |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
GP Graham Platner |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
JM Janet Mills |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
JG Jared Golden |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
MD Mattie Daughtrey |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
SC Susan Collins |
NS Nirav Shah |
Kalshi | A 31.5% | B 0.1% | +31.45% | Buy spread | |
TJ Troy Jackson |
SC Susan Collins |
Polymarket US | A 66.0% | B 36.0% | +30.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Massachusetts Senate Odds 2026: Ed Markey Leads at 98.0%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Massachusetts Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
EMEd Markey
Vol $8
Spread 1.5%
Agg
98.0%↑ +0.2%
U
98.0%
K
98.0%
P
97.9%
G
96.5%
JDJohn Deaton
Vol $0
Spread 2.6%
Agg
2.3%— +0.0%
G
4.5%
U
3.0%
K
2.6%
P
2.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EM Ed Markey | 98.0% ↑ +0.2% | 1.5% | $8 |
Kalshi
98.0%
|
Polymarket
97.9%
|
Polymarket US
98.0%
|
Gemini
96.5%
|
JD John Deaton | 2.3% — +0.0% | 2.6% | $0 |
Kalshi
2.6%
|
Polymarket
2.0%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Gemini
4.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JD John Deaton |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 2.6¢ | Sell @ G 4¢ | +1.40% | +1.38% |
No | |
EM Ed Markey |
Gemini
→
Polymarket | Buy @ G 97¢ | Sell @ P 97.5¢ | +0.50% | +0.11% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EM Ed Markey |
JD John Deaton |
Polymarket | A 97.9% | B 2.0% | +95.90% | Buy spread | |
EM Ed Markey |
JD John Deaton |
Kalshi | A 98.0% | B 2.6% | +95.40% | Buy spread | |
EM Ed Markey |
JD John Deaton |
Polymarket US | A 98.0% | B 3.0% | +95.00% | Buy spread | |
EM Ed Markey |
JD John Deaton |
Gemini | A 96.5% | B 4.5% | +92.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Michigan Senate Odds: Abdul El-Sayed at 66.5%
Michigan’s open Senate race is one of the cycle’s most active general-election contests. Abdul El-Sayed currently leads at 66.5%, ahead of Mike Rogers at 33.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as the nominees compete for the seat.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Michigan Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
T&C’s apply.
Deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus
Risk Disclaimer
Current Michigan Senate Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AESAbdul El-Sayed
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
66.5%↑ +11.0%
O
69.0%
U
67.0%
K
66.5%
G
66.5%
MRMike Rogers
Vol —
Spread 3.0%
Agg
33.5%↓ -12.0%
O
36.0%
G
34.5%
K
33.5%
U
33.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AES Abdul El-Sayed | 66.5% ↑ +11.0% | 2.5% | — |
Kalshi
66.5%
|
Polymarket US
67.0%
|
Gemini
66.5%
|
OG
69.0%
|
MR Mike Rogers | 33.5% ↓ -12.0% | 3.0% | — |
Kalshi
33.5%
|
Polymarket US
33.0%
|
Gemini
34.5%
|
OG
36.0%
|
Michigan Senate Winner Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR Mike Rogers |
Polymarket US
→
Gemini | Buy @ U 33¢ | Sell @ G 34¢ | +1.00% | +0.86% |
No | |
AES Abdul El-Sayed |
Polymarket US
→
Gemini | Buy @ U 67¢ | Sell @ G 66¢ | -1.00% | -1.26% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AES Abdul El-Sayed |
MR Mike Rogers |
Polymarket US | A 67.0% | B 33.0% | +34.00% | Buy spread | |
AES Abdul El-Sayed |
MR Mike Rogers |
Kalshi | A 66.5% | B 33.5% | +33.00% | Buy spread | |
AES Abdul El-Sayed |
MR Mike Rogers |
Gemini | A 66.5% | B 34.5% | +32.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Minnesota Senate Odds 2026: Peggy Flanagan Leads at 91.4%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for Minnesota Senate Odds 2026: the race.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
PFPeggy Flanagan
Vol $3.2K
Spread 3.0%
Agg
91.4%↑ +0.6%
O
93.0%
P
92.5%
G
90.5%
K
90.4%
U
90.0%
MTMichele Tafoya
Vol $2.4K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
9.8%↑ +0.3%
O
13.0%
U
12.0%
K
9.9%
G
9.5%
P
8.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PF Peggy Flanagan | 91.4% ↑ +0.6% | 3.0% | $3.2K |
Kalshi
90.4%
|
Polymarket
92.5%
|
Polymarket US
90.0%
|
Gemini
90.5%
|
OG
93.0%
|
MT Michele Tafoya | 9.8% ↑ +0.3% | 4.5% | $2.4K |
Kalshi
9.9%
|
Polymarket
8.5%
|
Polymarket US
12.0%
|
Gemini
9.5%
|
OG
13.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PF Peggy Flanagan |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 90¢ | Sell @ P 92¢ | +2.00% | +2.00% |
Yes | |
MT Michele Tafoya |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 9¢ | Sell @ U 11¢ | +2.00% | +2.00% |
Yes |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PF Peggy Flanagan |
MT Michele Tafoya |
Polymarket | A 92.5% | B 8.5% | +84.00% | Buy spread | |
PF Peggy Flanagan |
MT Michele Tafoya |
Gemini | A 90.5% | B 9.5% | +81.00% | Buy spread | |
PF Peggy Flanagan |
MT Michele Tafoya |
Kalshi | A 90.4% | B 9.9% | +80.55% | Buy spread | |
PF Peggy Flanagan |
MT Michele Tafoya |
Polymarket US | A 90.0% | B 12.0% | +78.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Mississippi Senate Odds 2026: Cindy Hyde-Smith Leads at 93.0%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Mississippi Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
CHSCindy Hyde-Smith
Vol $24.7K
Spread 5.9%
Agg
93.0%↑ +2.5%
O
98.0%
P
93.0%
U
93.0%
K
92.1%
SCScott Colom
Vol $13.8K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
7.0%↓ -1.2%
U
10.0%
K
7.8%
P
7.0%
G
6.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHS Cindy Hyde-Smith | 93.0% ↑ +2.5% | 5.9% | $24.7K |
Kalshi
92.1%
|
Polymarket
93.0%
|
Polymarket US
93.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
98.0%
|
SC Scott Colom | 7.0% ↓ -1.2% | 3.5% | $13.8K |
Kalshi
7.8%
|
Polymarket
7.0%
|
Polymarket US
10.0%
|
Gemini
6.5%
|
OG
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SC Scott Colom |
Gemini
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ G 7¢ | Sell @ U 9¢ | +2.00% | +1.97% |
Yes | |
CHS Cindy Hyde-Smith |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 93¢ | Sell @ P 92¢ | -1.00% | -1.00% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CHS Cindy Hyde-Smith |
SC Scott Colom |
Polymarket | A 93.0% | B 7.0% | +86.00% | Buy spread | |
CHS Cindy Hyde-Smith |
SC Scott Colom |
Kalshi | A 92.1% | B 7.8% | +84.30% | Buy spread | |
CHS Cindy Hyde-Smith |
SC Scott Colom |
Polymarket US | A 93.0% | B 10.0% | +83.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Montana Senate Odds 2026: Kurt Alme Leads at 91.6%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Montana Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
KAKurt Alme
Vol $427
Spread 3.5%
Agg
91.6%↓ -0.9%
O
95.0%
U
92.0%
K
92.0%
P
91.5%
G
91.5%
SBSeth Bodnar
Vol $77
Spread 3.0%
Agg
7.8%↑ +0.6%
G
9.5%
K
7.9%
U
7.0%
P
6.5%
ABAlani Bankhead
Vol $189
Spread 2.0%
Agg
1.0%— +0.0%
O
3.0%
U
2.0%
G
1.5%
P
1.4%
K
1.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA Kurt Alme | 91.6% ↓ -0.9% | 3.5% | $427 |
Kalshi
92.0%
|
Polymarket
91.5%
|
Polymarket US
92.0%
|
Gemini
91.5%
|
OG
95.0%
|
SB Seth Bodnar | 7.8% ↑ +0.6% | 3.0% | $77 |
Kalshi
7.9%
|
Polymarket
6.5%
|
Polymarket US
7.0%
|
Gemini
9.5%
|
OG
—
|
AB Alani Bankhead | 1.0% — +0.0% | 2.0% | $189 |
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Polymarket
1.4%
|
Polymarket US
2.0%
|
Gemini
1.5%
|
OG
3.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB Seth Bodnar |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 7¢ | Sell @ G 9¢ | +2.00% | +1.96% |
Yes | |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 1.6¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | -0.60% | -0.67% |
No | |
KA Kurt Alme |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 92¢ | Sell @ U 91¢ | -1.00% | -1.00% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA Kurt Alme |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Kalshi | A 92.0% | B 1.0% | +90.95% | Buy spread | |
KA Kurt Alme |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Polymarket | A 91.5% | B 1.4% | +90.15% | Buy spread | |
KA Kurt Alme |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Polymarket US | A 92.0% | B 2.0% | +90.00% | Buy spread | |
KA Kurt Alme |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Gemini | A 91.5% | B 1.5% | +90.00% | Buy spread | |
KA Kurt Alme |
SB Seth Bodnar |
Polymarket | A 91.5% | B 6.5% | +85.00% | Buy spread | |
KA Kurt Alme |
SB Seth Bodnar |
Polymarket US | A 92.0% | B 7.0% | +85.00% | Buy spread | |
KA Kurt Alme |
SB Seth Bodnar |
Kalshi | A 92.0% | B 7.9% | +84.05% | Buy spread | |
KA Kurt Alme |
SB Seth Bodnar |
Gemini | A 91.5% | B 9.5% | +82.00% | Buy spread | |
SB Seth Bodnar |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Gemini | A 9.5% | B 1.5% | +8.00% | Buy spread | |
SB Seth Bodnar |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Kalshi | A 7.9% | B 1.0% | +6.90% | Buy spread | |
SB Seth Bodnar |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Polymarket | A 6.5% | B 1.4% | +5.15% | Buy spread | |
SB Seth Bodnar |
AB Alani Bankhead |
Polymarket US | A 7.0% | B 2.0% | +5.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Nebraska Senate Odds 2026: Pete Ricketts Leads at 68.5%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for Nebraska Senate Odds 2026: the race.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
PRPete Ricketts
Vol $5.7K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
68.5%↑ +0.2%
O
72.0%
G
69.5%
U
69.0%
K
68.5%
P
68.5%
DODan Osborn
Vol $13.4K
Spread 2.0%
Agg
31.3%↓ -0.9%
P
32.5%
U
32.0%
G
31.5%
K
30.5%
CBCindy Burbank
Vol $3.4K
Spread 2.8%
Agg
0.5%↑ +0.4%
O
3.0%
U
2.0%
G
1.5%
P
0.5%
K
0.2%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR Pete Ricketts | 68.5% ↑ +0.2% | 3.5% | $5.7K |
Kalshi
68.5%
|
Polymarket
68.5%
|
Polymarket US
69.0%
|
Gemini
69.5%
|
OG
72.0%
|
DO Dan Osborn | 31.3% ↓ -0.9% | 2.0% | $13.4K |
Kalshi
30.5%
|
Polymarket
32.5%
|
Polymarket US
32.0%
|
Gemini
31.5%
|
OG
—
|
CB Cindy Burbank | 0.5% ↑ +0.4% | 2.8% | $3.4K |
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Polymarket US
2.0%
|
Gemini
1.5%
|
OG
3.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO Dan Osborn |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 31¢ | Sell @ P 32¢ | +1.00% | +0.69% |
No | |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 0.4¢ | Sell @ U 1¢ | +0.60% | +0.53% |
No | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 69¢ | Sell @ G 69¢ | +0.00% | -0.28% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR Pete Ricketts |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Kalshi | A 68.5% | B 0.2% | +68.30% | Buy spread | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Gemini | A 69.5% | B 1.5% | +68.00% | Buy spread | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Polymarket | A 68.5% | B 0.5% | +67.95% | Buy spread | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Polymarket US | A 69.0% | B 2.0% | +67.00% | Buy spread | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
DO Dan Osborn |
Kalshi | A 68.5% | B 30.5% | +38.00% | Buy spread | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
DO Dan Osborn |
Gemini | A 69.5% | B 31.5% | +38.00% | Buy spread | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
DO Dan Osborn |
Polymarket US | A 69.0% | B 32.0% | +37.00% | Buy spread | |
PR Pete Ricketts |
DO Dan Osborn |
Polymarket | A 68.5% | B 32.5% | +36.00% | Buy spread | |
DO Dan Osborn |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Polymarket | A 32.5% | B 0.5% | +31.95% | Buy spread | |
DO Dan Osborn |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Kalshi | A 30.5% | B 0.2% | +30.30% | Buy spread | |
DO Dan Osborn |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Polymarket US | A 32.0% | B 2.0% | +30.00% | Buy spread | |
DO Dan Osborn |
CB Cindy Burbank |
Gemini | A 31.5% | B 1.5% | +30.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
New Hampshire Senate Odds 2026: Chris Pappas Leads at 81.8%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
CPChris Pappas
Vol $3.2K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
81.8%↑ +1.2%
U
86.0%
O
85.0%
G
84.5%
K
82.5%
P
81.5%
JESJohn E. Sununu
Vol $30.7K
Spread 5.5%
Agg
18.3%↓ -0.1%
G
20.5%
O
20.0%
P
18.5%
K
17.5%
U
15.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CP Chris Pappas | 81.8% ↑ +1.2% | 4.5% | $3.2K |
Kalshi
82.5%
|
Polymarket
81.5%
|
Polymarket US
86.0%
|
Gemini
84.5%
|
OG
85.0%
|
JES John E. Sununu | 18.3% ↓ -0.1% | 5.5% | $30.7K |
Kalshi
17.5%
|
Polymarket
18.5%
|
Polymarket US
15.0%
|
Gemini
20.5%
|
OG
20.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JES John E. Sununu |
Polymarket US
→
Gemini | Buy @ U 15¢ | Sell @ G 20¢ | +5.00% | +4.92% |
Yes | |
CP Chris Pappas |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 82¢ | Sell @ U 85¢ | +3.00% | +3.00% |
Yes |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CP Chris Pappas |
JES John E. Sununu |
Polymarket US | A 86.0% | B 15.0% | +71.00% | Buy spread | |
CP Chris Pappas |
JES John E. Sununu |
Kalshi | A 82.5% | B 17.5% | +65.00% | Buy spread | |
CP Chris Pappas |
JES John E. Sununu |
Gemini | A 84.5% | B 20.5% | +64.00% | Buy spread | |
CP Chris Pappas |
JES John E. Sununu |
Polymarket | A 81.5% | B 18.5% | +63.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 2.4%
Agg
98.0%— +0.0%Democratic Party
U
99.0%
K
98.0%
P
96.6%
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 2.2%
Agg
1.3%— +0.0%Republican Party
P
3.5%
U
2.0%
K
1.3%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 98.0% — +0.0% | 2.4% | — |
Kalshi
98.0%
|
Polymarket
96.6%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 1.3% — +0.0% | 2.2% | — |
Kalshi
1.3%
|
Polymarket
3.5%
|
Polymarket US
2.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 97¢ | Sell @ U 98¢ | +1.00% | +1.00% |
No | |
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 2¢ | Sell @ P 3¢ | +1.00% | +1.00% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket US | A 99.0% | B 2.0% | +97.00% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Kalshi | A 98.0% | B 1.3% | +96.65% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket | A 96.6% | B 3.5% | +93.05% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 0.3%
Agg
97.1%— +0.0%Democratic Party
K
97.3%
U
97.0%
P
97.0%
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 0.7%
Agg
2.8%↑ +0.4%Republican Party
P
3.1%
U
3.0%
K
2.4%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 97.1% — +0.0% | 0.3% | — |
Kalshi
97.3%
|
Polymarket
97.0%
|
Polymarket US
97.0%
|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 2.8% ↑ +0.4% | 0.7% | — |
Kalshi
2.4%
|
Polymarket
3.1%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 2.5¢ | Sell @ P 2.9¢ | +0.40% | +0.33% |
No | |
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 97¢ | Sell @ P 96.8¢ | -0.20% | -0.20% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Kalshi | A 97.3% | B 2.4% | +94.85% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket US | A 97.0% | B 3.0% | +94.00% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket | A 97.0% | B 3.1% | +93.85% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RCRoy Cooper
Vol —
Spread 0.3%
Agg
92.4%↓ -0.1%Democratic Party
K
92.4%
U
92.0%
MWMichael Whatley
Vol —
Spread 0.9%
Agg
8.0%— +0.0%Republican Party
K
8.0%
U
7.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RC Roy Cooper Democratic Party | 92.4% ↓ -0.1% | 0.3% | — |
Kalshi
92.4%
|
Polymarket US
92.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
MW Michael Whatley Republican Party | 8.0% — +0.0% | 0.9% | — |
Kalshi
8.0%
|
Polymarket US
7.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MW Michael Whatley Republican Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 7¢ | Sell @ K 7.9¢ | +0.90% | +0.82% |
No | |
RC Roy Cooper Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 92¢ | Sell @ K 92.1¢ | +0.10% | -0.82% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RC Roy Cooper |
MW Michael Whatley |
Polymarket US | A 92.0% | B 7.0% | +85.00% | Buy spread | |
RC Roy Cooper |
MW Michael Whatley |
Kalshi | A 92.4% | B 8.0% | +84.40% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Ohio Senate Odds: Sherrod Brown at 61.5%
Ohio’s Senate contest is a major statewide race on the 2026 midterm board. Sherrod Brown currently leads at 61.5%, ahead of Jon Husted at 38.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as the campaign moves toward Election Day.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Ohio Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
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Risk Disclaimer
Current Ohio Senate Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SBSherrod Brown
Vol —
Spread 4.0%
Agg
61.5%↑ +8.0%
O
65.0%
K
61.5%
U
61.0%
JHJon Husted
Vol —
Spread 6.5%
Agg
38.5%↓ -8.0%
O
45.0%
U
40.0%
K
38.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB Sherrod Brown | 61.5% ↑ +8.0% | 4.0% | — |
Kalshi
61.5%
|
Polymarket US
61.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
65.0%
|
JH Jon Husted | 38.5% ↓ -8.0% | 6.5% | — |
Kalshi
38.5%
|
Polymarket US
40.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
45.0%
|
Ohio Senate Winner Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JH Jon Husted |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 39¢ | Sell @ U 39¢ | +0.00% | -0.39% |
No | |
SB Sherrod Brown |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 61¢ | Sell @ K 61¢ | +0.00% | -0.61% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB Sherrod Brown |
JH Jon Husted |
Kalshi | A 61.5% | B 38.5% | +23.00% | Buy spread | |
SB Sherrod Brown |
JH Jon Husted |
Polymarket US | A 61.0% | B 40.0% | +21.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Oklahoma Senate Odds 2026: Kevin Hern Leads at 96.7%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
KHKevin Hern
Vol $50
Spread 1.0%
Agg
96.7%↓ -0.2%
U
97.0%
P
96.9%
K
96.7%
G
96.0%
NKTN’Kiyla Thomas
Vol $1
Spread 1.9%
Agg
1.7%↓ -0.8%
G
3.5%
P
3.1%
U
3.0%
K
1.7%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KH Kevin Hern | 96.7% ↓ -0.2% | 1.0% | $50 |
Kalshi
96.7%
|
Polymarket
96.9%
|
Polymarket US
97.0%
|
Gemini
96.0%
|
NKT N’Kiyla Thomas | 1.7% ↓ -0.8% | 1.9% | $1 |
Kalshi
1.7%
|
Polymarket
3.1%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Gemini
3.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NKT N’Kiyla Thomas |
Kalshi
→
Gemini | Buy @ K 2.2¢ | Sell @ G 3¢ | +0.80% | +0.72% |
No | |
KH Kevin Hern |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 97¢ | Sell @ P 96.2¢ | -0.80% | -0.80% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KH Kevin Hern |
NKT N’Kiyla Thomas |
Kalshi | A 96.7% | B 1.7% | +95.00% | Buy spread | |
KH Kevin Hern |
NKT N’Kiyla Thomas |
Polymarket US | A 97.0% | B 3.0% | +94.00% | Buy spread | |
KH Kevin Hern |
NKT N’Kiyla Thomas |
Polymarket | A 96.9% | B 3.1% | +93.80% | Buy spread | |
KH Kevin Hern |
NKT N’Kiyla Thomas |
Gemini | A 96.0% | B 3.5% | +92.50% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 0.4%
Agg
97.7%— +0.0%Democratic Party
U
98.0%
K
97.7%
P
97.6%
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 1.9%
Agg
2.2%— +0.0%Republican Party
U
4.0%
K
2.2%
P
2.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 97.7% — +0.0% | 0.4% | — |
Kalshi
97.7%
|
Polymarket
97.6%
|
Polymarket US
98.0%
|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 2.2% — +0.0% | 1.9% | — |
Kalshi
2.2%
|
Polymarket
2.1%
|
Polymarket US
4.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 2.4¢ | Sell @ U 3¢ | +0.60% | +0.60% |
No | |
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 98¢ | Sell @ P 96.7¢ | -1.30% | -1.30% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Kalshi | A 97.7% | B 2.2% | +95.50% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket | A 97.6% | B 2.1% | +95.45% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket US | A 98.0% | B 4.0% | +94.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Rhode Island Senate Odds 2026: Jack Reed Leads at 96.4%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
JRJack Reed
Vol $2
Spread 2.6%
Agg
96.4%↓ -0.7%
U
99.0%
K
98.2%
P
96.4%
RMRaymond McKay
Vol $1
Spread 6.0%
Agg
1.1%↓ -1.6%
O
7.0%
U
3.0%
P
2.2%
K
1.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JR Jack Reed | 96.4% ↓ -0.7% | 2.6% | $2 |
Kalshi
98.2%
|
Polymarket
96.4%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
RM Raymond McKay | 1.1% ↓ -1.6% | 6.0% | $1 |
Kalshi
1.1%
|
Polymarket
2.2%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
7.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JR Jack Reed |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 97¢ | Sell @ U 98¢ | +1.00% | +1.00% |
No | |
RM Raymond McKay |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 1.5¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | +0.50% | +0.43% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JR Jack Reed |
RM Raymond McKay |
Kalshi | A 98.2% | B 1.1% | +97.15% | Buy spread | |
JR Jack Reed |
RM Raymond McKay |
Polymarket US | A 99.0% | B 3.0% | +96.00% | Buy spread | |
JR Jack Reed |
RM Raymond McKay |
Polymarket | A 96.4% | B 2.2% | +94.25% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DGNDarline Graham Nordone
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
86.5%↑ +0.5%Republican Party
U
87.0%
K
86.5%
AAAnnie Andrews
Vol —
Spread 0.5%
Agg
13.5%— +0.0%Democratic Party
U
14.0%
K
13.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DGN Darline Graham Nordone Republican Party | 86.5% ↑ +0.5% | 0.5% | — |
Kalshi
86.5%
|
Polymarket US
87.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
AA Annie Andrews Democratic Party | 13.5% — +0.0% | 0.5% | — |
Kalshi
13.5%
|
Polymarket US
14.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA Annie Andrews Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 14¢ | Sell @ K 13¢ | -1.00% | -1.13% |
No | |
DGN Darline Graham Nordone Republican Party |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 87¢ | Sell @ K 86¢ | -1.00% | -1.86% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DGN Darline Graham Nordone |
AA Annie Andrews |
Kalshi | A 86.5% | B 13.5% | +73.00% | Buy spread | |
DGN Darline Graham Nordone |
AA Annie Andrews |
Polymarket US | A 87.0% | B 14.0% | +73.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
South Dakota Senate Odds 2026: Mike Rounds Leads at 94.6%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 South Dakota Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
MRMike Rounds
Vol $2.4K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
94.6%↑ +2.0%
P
95.0%
U
94.0%
K
93.8%
G
91.5%
BBBrian Bengs
Vol $523
Spread 2.2%
Agg
6.4%↑ +0.2%
U
7.0%
K
6.5%
G
6.5%
P
4.8%
JBJulian Beaudion
Vol $0
Spread 3.4%
Agg
0.3%↑ +0.1%
G
3.5%
K
0.4%
P
0.2%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR Mike Rounds | 94.6% ↑ +2.0% | 3.5% | $2.4K |
Kalshi
93.8%
|
Polymarket
95.0%
|
Polymarket US
94.0%
|
Gemini
91.5%
|
BB Brian Bengs | 6.4% ↑ +0.2% | 2.2% | $523 |
Kalshi
6.5%
|
Polymarket
4.8%
|
Polymarket US
7.0%
|
Gemini
6.5%
|
JB Julian Beaudion | 0.3% ↑ +0.1% | 3.4% | $0 |
Kalshi
0.4%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Polymarket US
—
|
Gemini
3.5%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JB Julian Beaudion |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 0.2¢ | Sell @ G 3¢ | +2.80% | +2.79% |
Yes | |
MR Mike Rounds |
Gemini
→
Polymarket | Buy @ G 92¢ | Sell @ P 94.7¢ | +2.70% | +2.33% |
Yes | |
BB Brian Bengs |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 5.5¢ | Sell @ U 6¢ | +0.50% | +0.50% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MR Mike Rounds |
JB Julian Beaudion |
Polymarket | A 95.0% | B 0.2% | +94.85% | Buy spread | |
MR Mike Rounds |
JB Julian Beaudion |
Kalshi | A 93.8% | B 0.4% | +93.40% | Buy spread | |
MR Mike Rounds |
BB Brian Bengs |
Polymarket | A 95.0% | B 4.8% | +90.20% | Buy spread | |
MR Mike Rounds |
JB Julian Beaudion |
Gemini | A 91.5% | B 3.5% | +88.00% | Buy spread | |
MR Mike Rounds |
BB Brian Bengs |
Kalshi | A 93.8% | B 6.5% | +87.30% | Buy spread | |
MR Mike Rounds |
BB Brian Bengs |
Polymarket US | A 94.0% | B 7.0% | +87.00% | Buy spread | |
MR Mike Rounds |
BB Brian Bengs |
Gemini | A 91.5% | B 6.5% | +85.00% | Buy spread | |
BB Brian Bengs |
JB Julian Beaudion |
Kalshi | A 6.5% | B 0.4% | +6.10% | Buy spread | |
BB Brian Bengs |
JB Julian Beaudion |
Polymarket | A 4.8% | B 0.2% | +4.65% | Buy spread | |
BB Brian Bengs |
JB Julian Beaudion |
Gemini | A 6.5% | B 3.5% | +3.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 0.6%
Agg
96.7%— +0.0%Republican Party
K
97.0%
U
97.0%
P
96.4%
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 0.6%
Agg
3.3%↑ +0.4%Democratic Party
P
3.7%
K
3.0%
U
3.0%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 96.7% — +0.0% | 0.6% | — |
Kalshi
97.0%
|
Polymarket
96.4%
|
Polymarket US
97.0%
|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 3.3% ↑ +0.4% | 0.6% | — |
Kalshi
3.0%
|
Polymarket
3.7%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 3¢ | Sell @ P 2.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.30% |
No | |
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 97.1¢ | Sell @ U 96¢ | -1.10% | -1.10% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Kalshi | A 97.0% | B 3.0% | +94.00% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket US | A 97.0% | B 3.0% | +94.00% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket | A 96.4% | B 3.7% | +92.70% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Texas Senate Odds: James Talarico at 59.5%
Texas is one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the 2026 cycle. James Talarico currently leads the winner market at 59.5%, with Ken Paxton at 41.5%. DeFi Rate aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, Polymarket US and OG as the statewide race moves toward November.
Top prediction apps to trade on the Texas Senate race
Trade $10, Get $25
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Current Texas Senate Winner Odds
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
JTJames Talarico
Vol —
Spread 5.0%
Agg
59.5%↑ +9.0%
O
64.0%
K
59.5%
G
59.5%
U
59.0%
KPKen Paxton
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
41.5%↓ -9.0%
U
44.0%
O
44.0%
K
41.5%
G
41.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JT James Talarico | 59.5% ↑ +9.0% | 5.0% | — |
Kalshi
59.5%
|
Polymarket US
59.0%
|
Gemini
59.5%
|
OG
64.0%
|
KP Ken Paxton | 41.5% ↓ -9.0% | 2.5% | — |
Kalshi
41.5%
|
Polymarket US
44.0%
|
Gemini
41.5%
|
OG
44.0%
|
Texas Senate Winner Odds Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KP Ken Paxton |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 42¢ | Sell @ U 43¢ | +1.00% | +0.58% |
No | |
JT James Talarico |
Polymarket US
→
Kalshi | Buy @ U 59¢ | Sell @ K 59¢ | +0.00% | -0.59% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JT James Talarico |
KP Ken Paxton |
Kalshi | A 59.5% | B 41.5% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
JT James Talarico |
KP Ken Paxton |
Gemini | A 59.5% | B 41.5% | +18.00% | Buy spread | |
JT James Talarico |
KP Ken Paxton |
Polymarket US | A 59.0% | B 44.0% | +15.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 0.8%
Agg
97.6%— +0.0%Democratic Party
P
97.8%
K
97.6%
U
97.0%
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 1.2%
Agg
2.0%↑ +0.5%Republican Party
U
3.0%
P
2.4%
K
1.8%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 97.6% — +0.0% | 0.8% | — |
Kalshi
97.6%
|
Polymarket
97.8%
|
Polymarket US
97.0%
|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 2.0% ↑ +0.5% | 1.2% | — |
Kalshi
1.8%
|
Polymarket
2.4%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 97¢ | Sell @ P 97.6¢ | +0.60% | +0.60% |
No | |
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ K 3.3¢ | Sell @ U 2¢ | -1.30% | -1.37% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Kalshi | A 97.6% | B 1.8% | +95.75% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket | A 97.8% | B 2.4% | +95.45% | Buy spread | |
DP Democratic Party |
RP Republican Party |
Polymarket US | A 97.0% | B 3.0% | +94.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
West Virginia Senate Odds 2026: Shelley Moore Capito Leads at 97.8%
Track live Kalshi probabilities and trading activity for the 2026 West Virginia Senate election.
Probability Over Time
Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips
Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.
Chart settings
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
SMCShelley Moore Capito
Vol $40
Spread 2.5%
Agg
97.8%— +0.0%
U
99.0%
K
97.8%
P
97.2%
G
96.5%
RFARachel Fetty Anderson
Vol $0
Spread 6.4%
Agg
1.8%↓ -0.1%
O
8.0%
G
3.5%
U
3.0%
P
2.1%
K
1.6%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMC Shelley Moore Capito | 97.8% — +0.0% | 2.5% | $40 |
Kalshi
97.8%
|
Polymarket
97.2%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
Gemini
96.5%
|
OG
—
|
RFA Rachel Fetty Anderson | 1.8% ↓ -0.1% | 6.4% | $0 |
Kalshi
1.6%
|
Polymarket
2.1%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Gemini
3.5%
|
OG
8.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMC Shelley Moore Capito |
Gemini
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ G 97¢ | Sell @ U 98¢ | +1.00% | +0.61% |
No | |
RFA Rachel Fetty Anderson |
Polymarket
→
Gemini | Buy @ P 2.5¢ | Sell @ G 3¢ | +0.50% | +0.49% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMC Shelley Moore Capito |
RFA Rachel Fetty Anderson |
Kalshi | A 97.8% | B 1.6% | +96.15% | Buy spread | |
SMC Shelley Moore Capito |
RFA Rachel Fetty Anderson |
Polymarket US | A 99.0% | B 3.0% | +96.00% | Buy spread | |
SMC Shelley Moore Capito |
RFA Rachel Fetty Anderson |
Polymarket | A 97.2% | B 2.1% | +95.10% | Buy spread | |
SMC Shelley Moore Capito |
RFA Rachel Fetty Anderson |
Gemini | A 96.5% | B 3.5% | +93.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
RPRepublican Party
Vol —
Spread 2.5%
Agg
98.1%— +0.0%Republican Party
U
99.0%
K
98.1%
P
96.5%
DPDemocratic Party
Vol —
Spread 1.2%
Agg
2.4%— +0.0%Democratic Party
U
3.0%
P
2.9%
K
1.8%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party | 98.1% — +0.0% | 2.5% | — |
Kalshi
98.1%
|
Polymarket
96.5%
|
Polymarket US
99.0%
|
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party | 2.4% — +0.0% | 1.2% | — |
Kalshi
1.8%
|
Polymarket
2.9%
|
Polymarket US
3.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party Republican Party |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 97¢ | Sell @ U 98¢ | +1.00% | +1.00% |
No | |
DP Democratic Party Democratic Party |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 2.6¢ | Sell @ P 2.2¢ | -0.40% | -0.47% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Kalshi | A 98.1% | B 1.8% | +96.25% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket US | A 99.0% | B 3.0% | +96.00% | Buy spread | |
RP Republican Party |
DP Democratic Party |
Polymarket | A 96.5% | B 2.9% | +93.60% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
2026 Senate races at a glance
- Seats up for election: 35, including the Florida and Ohio special elections.
- Current Senate: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats.
- Senate control: The Democratic side needs a net gain of four seats to reach 51.
- What you can trade: Individual Senate winners, Senate control and other Senate outcomes where supported.
- Where our odds come from: We show prices from the prediction markets we track rather than creating our own election forecast.
The board is designed to put the entire Senate market in one place. Some races already have millions of dollars traded, while others are considerably thinner. Kalshi's current Senate board, for example, shows more than $13 million in Texas volume, about $5.6 million in Maine, $3.7 million in Michigan and $3.5 million in Ohio.
Which Senate races are moving?
Checking 35 individual races makes it hard to see where traders are most active. This table ranks the 10 states with the most total trading volume on Kalshi, so higher-interest races rise above thin markets even when a low-volume contract posts a large price change.
Loading recent Senate market moves…
Last refreshed on: September 21, 2026 at 10:20 AM MST
The Rank column is determined by total Kalshi trading volume for each race. Most Likely uses Kalshi's current midpoint, Daily move compares that midpoint with Kalshi's previous reported price and 24h volume shows recent Kalshi trading activity.
This is a discovery tool, not a race rating. States move into and out of the top 10 as Kalshi trading volume changes; readers can then use the full race cards above to compare the underlying venue prices.
The percentage on a card is the price now, not a permanent prediction.
Texas went from effectively even on Kalshi in early September to Talarico at 54% ten days later and has since moved farther. Ohio has also changed sides during the cycle, while other Senate markets have barely moved at all.
Polling can be part of those moves, but a prediction-market price isn't the same thing as a poll. A poll measures responses from a defined sample of voters at a particular time. A market price reflects where participants are currently willing to buy and sell a contract tied to the final result.
Candidate news, polling, fundraising, endorsements and trading activity itself can all coincide with price changes. The useful number for this page is still the live market price, which is why the cards should update without requiring us to rewrite the article every time a race moves.
How the Senate races connect to control
You can trade Michigan, Texas, Maine or Ohio as individual elections, but those results eventually add up to the same question: which party controls the Senate.
The Democratic side starts from 47 seats and needs to reach 51. That's why traders keep talking about a path to 51 and looking at combinations of races rather than one state in isolation. Kalshi's current midterms board has North Carolina firmly on the Democratic side of its market pricing, Michigan, Maine and Alaska closer, Texas and Ohio nearer the middle, and Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska on the Republican side. Those are market prices at a point in time, not our race ratings.
Losing one potential pickup changes the importance of the others. A trader looking at the chamber can therefore move between North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and other states trying to work out which combinations get either side to the final number.
You also can't simply count the party favored in each state and assume that should equal the Senate-control probability. Being favored separately in several close races does not mean a party will win all of those races simultaneously.
If you want to trade the national outcome rather than an individual state, Senate-control markets compare the Democratic and Republican control outcomes and bring the races together at the chamber level.
What happens with a 50-50 Senate?
Getting from 47 Democratic-aligned seats to 50 would be a three-seat net gain, but under the current vice presidency it would not give Democrats Senate control. The Constitution gives the vice president a vote when the Senate is equally divided, and Vice President JD Vance has already cast tie-breaking Senate votes during the current Congress.
That makes 51 seats the relevant Democratic threshold for the 2026 control calculation.
Keep that separate from the individual winner markets above. If you buy an El-Sayed contract in Michigan or a Talarico contract in Texas, the trade is about who wins that particular election under the contract's rules. Whether that result ultimately changes control of the Senate is a separate question.
How to use our Senate oddsboard
Each card represents a Senate election. Search for a state or candidate, see the outcomes currently available and compare the prices we can match across Kalshi, Polymarket and other supported markets.
Each venue's displayed price is shown separately. That doesn't mean we think that candidate is the better political choice or that the outcome is more likely than the market says. We keep the individual exchange prices visible because two markets can disagree, sometimes by several points.
Volume gives you some context for the price as well. A heavily traded race can have more orders available around the displayed price, while a thinner Senate market can move much more sharply when a larger order comes through.
If a race has more candidates than we can reasonably fit onto one card, use Show all outcomes to open the rest of the market.
Why the same Senate race can have different odds
There isn't one official prediction-market price for a Senate candidate. Kalshi and Polymarket have separate participants, liquidity and order books, so the same outcome can trade at different prices at the same time.
Texas shows this clearly. As of this update, Kalshi has Democrat James Talarico at 58% and Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, while Polymarket has Talarico around 60 cents and Paxton around 42 cents. Kalshi reports about $13.2 million in volume on the race, compared with roughly $1.34 million on Polymarket's market.
Those gaps can change quickly. Talarico and Paxton were priced at 50-50 on Kalshi on September 5; by September 15, Kalshi had Talarico at 54%. The current market has since moved again.
We don't average those numbers into a single DeFi Rate forecast. The point of the card is to let you see where each underlying market is trading before you decide which one to open.
How to bet on a Senate race
Michigan gives us a real example. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers are trading for the open Senate seat, with Kalshi currently showing El-Sayed around 65% and Rogers around 35%. Polymarket has the same race at roughly 66 cents for El-Sayed and 36 cents for Rogers.
If you bought 100 El-Sayed contracts at 65 cents on a market where a correct contract settles at $1, the position would cost $65 before applicable fees. If El-Sayed wins and the contracts settle at $1 each, the position is worth $100, leaving a $35 difference before fees. If Rogers wins instead, those El-Sayed contracts settle at $0.
You don't necessarily have to hold the position until November. If you entered at 65 cents and the available selling price later moved to 74 cents, you could try to sell the position before Election Day. How much you can actually sell at 74 cents depends on the orders available at that price.
The live card should always be used when you're ready to trade. The Michigan prices above are a working example based on the market at the time of this update; these contracts can move throughout the day.
Read the market rules before putting money down
The candidate names can look identical across exchanges while the underlying contracts still use different wording or settlement procedures. Open the actual market before placing a trade and check the result being measured, the resolution source and any provisions covering a runoff.
Polymarket's Michigan market, for example, says it resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election and explicitly includes any runoffs. Its Texas market contains the same runoff provision for that election.
That also means a television network calling a Senate race isn't necessarily the moment your position settles. The contract resolves according to the exchange's written rules and specified result.
Platform availability can vary by location and product. Our prediction market legal tracker follows current federal and state cases and rules.
2026 Senate election FAQs
Kalshi and Polymarket have markets on individual 2026 Senate elections, with the exact races and products differing by platform. Polymarket US also currently lists midterm political markets, including its U.S. Senate Midterm Winner market and a Texas Senate winner market.
There are 35 Senate elections on the 2026 ballot, but that doesn't mean every exchange will have a liquid winner market for every state at all times. Our board can still show the full Senate slate and display live prices where a supported prediction market is available.
A candidate trading around 65 cents can generally be read as the market pricing that outcome at roughly a 65% probability. It doesn't mean 65% of voters support that candidate, and it should not be read as a polling percentage.
They are separate markets with different traders, available orders and liquidity. The same candidate can therefore be priced differently at the same time, as the current Texas and Michigan markets demonstrate.
Prediction-market positions can generally be sold before settlement when there is sufficient liquidity on the other side. The available price may be higher or lower than what you originally paid, and a large position may not all fill at the first displayed price.
Democrats currently hold 45 seats and two independents caucus with them, putting the Democratic-aligned side at 47. A net gain of four gets that side to 51.
Not under the current vice presidency. The vice president can break tied Senate votes, and JD Vance is the current Republican vice president. That makes 51 the Democratic threshold for control in the current 2026 setup.
It depends on the individual contract. Some markets explicitly include a later runoff in determining the winner; Polymarket's current Michigan and Texas Senate contracts both do. Check the rules of the market you're trading before placing the position.
Latest election news
Michigan Senate Markets Give El-Sayed Significant Edge as Polling Shows a Dead Heat
More than $5.7 million has traded across Kalshi and Polymarket on Michigan’s open Senate race, with both platforms putting Abdul El-Sayed in the low- to mid-60s. But a new Detroit-area poll gives Republican Mike Rogers a narrow lead, underscoring how far prediction-market confidence has moved ahead of the conventional view in a race central to Senate control.
Kalshi Sees Democrats Holding New Hampshire Senate Seat Despite Toss-Up Talk
Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu easily cleared their primaries Tuesday, setting up one of November’s most consequential Senate races. The conventional political view calls New Hampshire a tight, must-win Democratic hold. Kalshi traders disagree, at least for now, giving the Democrat an 84% chance on nearly $400,000 in trading volume.
Texas Senate Race Continues To Trade Like a Toss-Up as Paxton Holds a Thin Kalshi Edge
More than $10.6 million has traded on Kalshi’s Texas Senate market since the race turned competitive in August, while Polymarket traders now narrowly favor Democrat James Talarico. The split-screen comes as Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and President Donald Trump, publicly acknowledge that Texas is no longer a race they can take for granted.
Over $106M Has Been Traded on LA’s Mayor Race as Bass Holds a Narrowing Edge
More than $100 million has traded on Kalshi’s Los Angeles mayor market, where Karen Bass remains near 65%.
Challenger Nithya Raman is gaining ground, has just secured the endorsement of the local Democratic Socialists of America chapter, and is running in a city where the general election is less a fight over party than a fight over what kind of Democrat gets to run Los Angeles.
AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
The 2028 Democratic primary market is becoming a three-way race, but Gavin Newsom is no longer leading it. With $194 million now traded on Kalshi and nearly $1.3 billion on Polymarket, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff have surged past the California governor, an early sign that traders are pricing a Democratic future less defined by the old establishment and more by the party’s progressive and battleground-state wings.
Prediction Markets Call Trump Candidate Wins In South Carolina and Oklahoma Runoffs, Margins Show His Grip Still Has Limits
Trump-backed Darline Graham Nordone and Mike Mazzei both won Tuesday’s Republican runoffs, validating the markets that continued to price each as the favorite after shaky first-round performances. But Graham’s earlier failure to clear 50% in deep-red South Carolina, and Mazzei’s 0.6-point Oklahoma win after finishing second in the first round, show that Trump’s endorsement remains powerful without making his candidates invincible.