2026 Senate Elections2026 Michigan Senate election odds
Track the Michigan Senate winner market and compare the current prices, venue coverage and settlement rules for prediction markets. Live data from Kalshi and Polymarket.
About 3 in 4Unchanged this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (74%) and Polymarket (74%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $135 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 4Unchanged this week (Kalshi)
Average of Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (27%).
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $370 if correct, before fees.
2026 Michigan Senate election odds
Each row is an outcome, with its price to buy. Tap a price to trade it.
| Outcome | Michigan Senate winner?Kalshi and Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | Kalshi74¢Polymarket74¢ |
| Mike Rogers (R) | Kalshi27¢Polymarket27¢ |
Each price is what one Yes contract costs on that venue; it pays $1, so 53¢ is about a 53% chance. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate and Polymarket via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 5, 10:20 PM and 10:29 PM ET.
Little movement, last 7 days
Little movement in the last 7 days. The largest was Abdul El-Sayed (D), No change to 74%.
Why traders follow Michigan
Michigan's open Senate seat is one of the individual contests feeding into the national balance of power. This page shows the market for the state winner; it is not itself a Senate-control contract. The prices can respond to candidate developments, polling and changes in the order book, so use the live board for the latest available quote.
How to compare the Michigan markets
Look at which outcome is being priced, whether the contract names a person or a party, and whether the quoted price is current and available to buy. Read the exchange's written settlement and runoff provisions before placing an order. The prices shown here express what traders are willing to pay, not a DeFi Rate race rating. For context, see our midterm odds hub and Senate races board.
Michigan Senate election questions
- Does the Michigan winner determine Senate control?
No. It determines one seat. The full Senate balance also depends on the results in other states.
- Why can the favorite change?
Market prices change as traders revise their orders or new information arrives. A favorite is not a guaranteed winner.
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