2027 Super Bowl Ads Prediction Markets and OddsDisney+ is the likeliest, at 92%
Which brands will advertise during the Big Game? Kalshi traders give Disney+ the highest chance, 92%, ahead of OpenAI / ChatGPT at 90%. More than one outcome can resolve Yes. Over the past week on Kalshi, Disney+ and OpenAI / ChatGPT gained the most, 3 points each.
About 9 in 10 Up 3 pts this week
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $107 if correct, before fees.
About 9 in 10 Up 3 pts this week
Prices to buy. Kalshi's quote is stale (observed Oct 4, 8:55 AM ET) and may have moved.
Which brands will advertise during the Big Game?
Most traded: Disney+ ($95)
11:59 PM ET
Prices to buy each outcome. Some quotes are stale: they weren't observed recently and may have moved. Tap a price to open Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi | Sources | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disney+ | 92% | Kalshi93¢ | ||
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | 90% | Kalshi92¢ | ||
| Amazon Prime | 89% | Kalshi91¢ | ||
| Hims & Hers | 88% | Kalshi91¢ | ||
| Gemini | 82% | Kalshi86¢ | ||
| Anthropic / Claude | 70% | Kalshi74¢ | ||
| Oakley | 56% | Kalshi60¢ | ||
| DoorDash | 55% | Kalshi57¢ | ||
| Grok | 52% | Kalshi54¢ | ||
| Coinbase | 51% | Kalshi54¢ | ||
| Liquid Death | 50% | Kalshi53¢ | ||
| Nike | 49% | Kalshi51¢ | ||
| Allstate | 42% | Kalshi44¢ | ||
| Jeep | 39% | Kalshi41¢ | ||
| Paramount+ | 36% | Kalshi38¢ | ||
| Base44 / Wix | 31% | Kalshi33¢ | ||
| Temu | 27% | Kalshi30¢ | ||
| Spotify | 23% | Kalshi26¢ | ||
| SpaceX | 22% | Kalshi24¢ | ||
| Zyn | 8% | Kalshi11¢ | ||
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Source: Kalshi via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 4, 7:25 AM and 10:03 AM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, Disney+ and OpenAI / ChatGPT gained the most, 3 points each.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Aug 3 to Oct 3 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Biggest moves, last 7 days
Change in percentage points over 7 days, from daily closing prices to the latest observation (Oct 4, 10:03 AM ET).
Super Bowl LXI advertisement odds
The market is already open for trading at Kalshi, while Polymarket has yet to unveil theirs. Volume will climb as we get closer to the Big Game, making now a great time to scout prices and look for potential value opportunities. There are contracts for 20 brands right now, and more may be added down the road. Here’s where the probabilities stand on available contracts.
| Brand | Kalshi – Yes | Kalshi – No |
|---|---|---|
| Disney+ | 97% | 13% |
| Amazon Prime | 93% | 15% |
| Hims & Hers | 92% | 17% |
| OpenAI/ChatGPT | 91% | 18% |
| Gemini (Google AI model) | 86% | 23% |
| DoorDash | 65% | 44% |
| Anthropic/Claude | 63% | 37% |
| Oakley | 60% | 49% |
| Nike | 54% | 56% |
| Allstate | 50% | 59% |
| Grok | 47% | 54% |
| Liquid Death | 47% | 58% |
| Jeep | 32% | 68% |
| Paramount+ | 36% | 74% |
| Base 44/Wix | 34% | 75% |
| Temu | 28% | 73% |
| Coinbase | 26% | 77% |
| Spotify | 17% | 93% |
| SpaceX | 15% | 85% |
| Zyn | 11% | 94% |
Super Bowl LX ad results
The Super Bowl ads market drew $72.2 million in trading volume on Kalshi alone. It was one of the highest-volume novelty props of the event. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offered contracts on expected advertisers. Amazon Prime, Hims & Hers, and Liquid Death were considered locks. All three traded above 98% before resolving at 100%.
Coinbase was the most actively traded individual contract at $1.5 million in volume, followed by Netflix ($1.3M), Amazon Prime ($738K), OpenAI ($598K), and Hims & Hers ($539K). Coinbase sat at 70.3% in the final pre-game odds, while Anthropic remained a coin flip at 51.5%.
NBC Universal sold out its ad inventory for Super Bowl LX, with 30-second spots reaching $8 to $10 million. The following brands aired ads during the game and were available for trading ahead of the game.
- Amazon Prime
- Hims & Hers
- Liquid Death
- OpenAI
- Pepsi
- T-Mobile
- Toyota
- State Farm
- Salesforce
- Amazon
- Coinbase
- Anthropic
- Jeep
- Gemini (Google AI)
These brands were also available to trade, but did not wind up airing ads.
- Netflix
- Spotify
- Temu
- Robinhood
- Verizon/Visible
- Progressive
- Allstate
- Disney+
- Paramount+
Other confirmed advertisers that were not traded on prediction markets included Budweiser, Bud Light, Michelob Ultra, Instacart, Dunkin’, Uber Eats, Hellmann’s, Pringles, Cadillac, Oikos, Liquid I.V., Squarespace, He Gets Us, SVEDKA Vodka, Kinder Bueno, Dove, TurboTax, Lay’s, and WeatherTech.
Prediction market angle
Kalshi and Polymarket both ran markets asking which brands would advertise during the game. The combined ads market generated $72.2 million in trading volume on Kalshi, making it the platform’s third-largest Super Bowl category behind only the game-winner contract ($358.8M) and Bad Bunny’s opening song ($113.5M). Polymarket’s ad volume was a fraction of Kalshi’s, consistent with the 95/5 Kalshi-to-Polymarket split on 24-hour Super Bowl trading volume heading into the game.
Brands that had publicly confirmed plans traded near certainty — OpenAI at 97–98% after the Wall Street Journal reported its ad buy, Google and Liquid Death both at 99% following confirmations to industry publications. These near-certain outcomes functioned as low-yield “bonds” in prediction markets.
As with other markets, Super Bowl ads carried unique risk for information leaks. Hundreds of employees at any given company knew whether their employer was running a spot before it was publicly announced. Kalshi prohibited insider trading in its rulebook, but enforcement was difficult to verify. Polymarket’s global exchange had no such restrictions.
CNBC reported that Spotify’s odds on Kalshi spiked from $0.35 to $0.69 on January 19 before settling back down, a pattern consistent with potential insider activity. Spotify ultimately closed at 29.5%.
NFL banned prediction markets from advertising
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket could buy airtime during Super Bowl LX. Front Office Sports reported on January 29 that the NFL had added prediction markets to its “prohibited categories” list, placing them alongside tobacco, pornography, and firearms. The league cited concerns about market manipulation and a lack of regulatory safeguards. DraftKings and FanDuel ran sportsbook ads, but their prediction market products could not be mentioned.
Kalshi didn’t need a Super Bowl spot to dominate the conversation. Locked out of the broadcast, the platform blanketed the Bay Area with an omnichannel guerrilla campaign that CEO Tarek Mansour recapped on LinkedIn.
The effort spanned out-of-home, digital, experiential, and broadcast channels: Kalshi plastered real-time odds across digital billboards nationwide, installed a 30-foot branded activation on Pier 39, placed screens showing live markets inside 70 bars, and ran branded vehicle wraps on trucks and rideshares throughout San Francisco. A plane skywriting “KALSHI” above the Bay Area before kickoff capped the aerial push. Kalshi also fast-tracked a Terrell Owens commercial designed for social distribution, produced in just three days, and bought radio airtime across major markets.
The results spoke for themselves. Kalshi became the most searched brand on Super Bowl Sunday — ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which actually ran ads. The top three apps during the game were Peacock, NBC, and Kalshi. Bank of America called Kalshi the biggest brand winner of the Super Bowl. The surge in traffic temporarily strained the platform’s deposit systems during the game, but Kalshi processed over $1.2 billion in Super Bowl-related trading volume on game day alone — up 2,700% year-over-year — pushing it to a record week. Skipping the broadcast saved the company roughly $10 million, the cost of a single 30-second spot.
More Super Bowl markets
Super Bowl Odds | Halftime Performer Odds | NFL Mention Markets | Prediction Market Promos | Super Bowl MVP Odds | Super Bowl Squares | Who Will Attend the Super Bowl | Bad Bunny Results
How this market resolved
Kalshi: Kalshi’s market asked “Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Pro Football Championship?”. Contracts resolved to “Yes” if the listed company ran one or more advertisements during the national broadcast of Super Bowl LX on NBC. The advertisement had to air between kickoff and the final whistle to qualify.
Resolution criteria allowed co-funded or co-branded ads for all listed companies involved. Brands at least 50% owned by a listed company counted for the parent (e.g., Beats counted for Apple). The resolution source was the official broadcast of Super Bowl LX, with consensus of credible reporting as backup.
Kalshi charged trading fees up to 2% per contract, with lower fees at probability extremes. Deposits via ACH were free; debit cards incurred a 2% deposit fee and $2 withdrawal fee.
Polymarket: Polymarket’s market asked “Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?”. Contracts resolved to “Yes” if the brand aired a qualifying advertisement during the broadcast. Qualifying ads included commercials featuring the brand, sponsorship segments clearly identifying the brand (e.g., “This halftime show brought to you by…”), or branded content integration with prominent display. The ad had to occur after kickoff and before regulation time (or overtime) ended.
Stadium signage without dedicated airtime, pre-game ads, post-game ads, streaming-only ads, regional ads, and parent company ads without specific brand identification did not qualify. Co-branded advertisements with equal billing counted as qualifying. Resolution sources included NFL, CBS Sports, NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ABC Sports, ESPN, The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Ad Age, Marketing Land, Sports Business Journal, USA Today, CNN, and STAT News.
Polymarket’s global exchange charged no trading fees on most markets, though standard blockchain gas fees applied for deposits and withdrawals.
Key difference: Polymarket explicitly included sponsorship segments and branded integrations beyond traditional commercials. Kalshi’s rules were more narrowly focused on advertisements only.
Super Bowl ad history (2016–2026)
| Brand | Last 10 years |
|---|---|
| State Farm | 2020, 2021, 2024, 2026 |
| 2017, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 | |
| Toyota | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026 |
| Salesforce | 2022, 2025, 2026 |
| Liquid Death | 2025, 2026 |
| Pepsi | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2026 |
| Amazon | 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025, 2026 |
| Hims & Hers | 2024, 2026 |
| OpenAI | 2025, 2026 |
| T-Mobile | 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| Gemini (Google) | 2024, 2025, 2026 |
| Disney+ | 2022, 2024, 2025 |
| Coinbase | 2022, 2026 |
| Amazon Prime | 2022 |
| Paramount+ | 2019, 2021, 2023 |
| Anthropic | 2026 |
| Allstate | 2021 |
| Netflix | 2017, 2018, 2022, 2023 |
| Spotify | Never advertised |
| Temu | 2024, 2025 |
| Verizon/Visible | 2017, 2021, 2022, 2024 |
| Progressive | 2020, 2024 |
| Jeep | 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026 |
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