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US Elections stories
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- Michigan Senate Markets Give El-Sayed Significant Edge as Polling Shows a Dead Heat
Kalshi and Polymarket favor Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's open Senate race, while a new Detroit-area poll gives Republican Mike Rogers a narrow lead.
- Kalshi Sees Democrats Holding New Hampshire Senate Seat Despite Toss-Up Talk
Chris Pappas and John E. Sununu won their primaries, and Kalshi traders give Pappas a strong chance to hold New Hampshire's Senate seat despite talk of a toss-up.
- Texas Senate Race Continues To Trade Like a Toss-Up as Paxton Holds a Thin Kalshi Edge
Kalshi gives Ken Paxton a thin edge while Polymarket narrowly favors James Talarico, as Republicans including Ted Cruz and John Thune say Texas is no longer safe.
- Over $106M Has Been Traded on LA’s Mayor Race as Bass Holds a Narrowing Edge
Karen Bass remains the favorite in heavily traded Los Angeles mayor markets, but Nithya Raman is gaining ground and won the local Democratic Socialists' endorsement.
- AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff have passed Gavin Newsom in 2028 Democratic nomination markets as trading on Kalshi and Polymarket keeps growing.
- Prediction Markets Call Trump Candidate Wins In South Carolina and Oklahoma Runoffs, Margins Show His Grip Still Has Limits
Trump-backed Darline Graham Nordone and Mike Mazzei won their runoffs as markets expected, but their narrow paths show his endorsement does not make candidates invincible.
- Trump Doubles Down on Mazzei in Oklahoma Governor Runoff After Prediction Markets Missed First Round
Mike Mazzei was the market favorite but finished behind Gentner Drummond in Oklahoma's Republican governor primary, and Trump is stepping up his support before the runoff.
- Cook Moves Texas and Iowa Toward Democrats, but Prediction Markets Still See Different November Risks
Cook Political Report moved the Texas and Iowa Senate races to toss-ups, and prediction markets reflect a tighter picture, especially in Texas between Ken Paxton and James Talarico.
- Prediction Markets Nail Alaska Primary, Get a Florida Surprise as November Map Starts to Take Shape
Mary Peltola finished first in Alaska's Senate primary as markets expected, while Angie Nixon's upset of Alex Vindman was Florida's surprise.
- Prediction Markets See Alaska Senate as a Coin Flip as Peltola Targets Crucial Democratic Pickup
Mary Peltola is seeking a Democratic Senate pickup in Alaska, where the top-four primary adds uncertainty and markets price November as roughly even.
- Florida Primaries Are Loaded With Prediction Markets, but Only a Few Races Are Actually Getting Serious Money
Florida's primaries have many markets, from Rep. Byron Donalds' near-certain governor nomination to a South Florida progressive test, but money is concentrated in a few.
- Trump-Backed Graham Nordone Faces South Carolina Senate Runoff Test, Prediction Markets Pile Behind Her
Sen. Darline Graham Nordone fell short of a majority in South Carolina's Republican Senate primary and faces Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff as the strong market favorite.
- Prediction Markets Nail Minnesota Primaries, Backing Flanagan And Tafoya In A Progressive Wave Test
Prediction markets correctly called Minnesota's major primaries, including Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for Senate and Republican Michele Tafoya, after a miss in Wisconsin.
- Prediction Markets Miss Again as Crowley Upsets Hong in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primary
David Crowley narrowly beat Francesca Hong, whom markets had as a near-certain winner, in Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary, and will face Republican Tom Tiffany.
- Hong Heads Into Wisconsin Governor Primary as Near Prediction Markets Lock, but Her November Problem Is Already Showing
Francesca Hong trades as a near-lock in Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary, but markets already favor Republicans to win the state in November.
- Individual Prediction Markets Contracts Show Democrats With Path To Senate Control
Republicans are still slight favorites to hold the Senate, but state markets now lean Democratic in Michigan, Alaska and Ohio and show Texas tied.
- Minnesota Primaries Put Progressive Wave to Another Test, Even as Prediction Markets Hold Firm on Flanagan
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the market favorite in Minnesota's Democratic Senate primary, though a new poll shows Angie Craig slightly ahead.
- Talarico Draws Even With Paxton in Texas Senate Prediction Markets as New Poll Flips the Race
After a poll showed Democrat James Talarico ahead, Texas Senate markets moved to an even race with Republican Ken Paxton in a seat once seen as safely Republican.
- Trump’s Vance Talk Sends 2028 GOP Markets Further Toward a Two-Man Race With Rubio
Reports that Trump told donors "we need to elect JD" added to JD Vance's lead over Marco Rubio in Kalshi and Polymarket markets for the 2028 Republican nomination.
- Prediction Markets Nailed Blackburn’s Tennessee Governor Primary Win as Polls Pointed to a Tight Race
Marsha Blackburn easily won Tennessee’s Republican governor primary, confirming the forecasts from Kalshi and Polymarket, which had priced her near 96% heading into Election Day.