Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death throws a Senate race into disarray, but prediction markets are still treating South Carolina like a deeply Republican hold.
Kalshi has Republicans at 81% to win in November despite the longtime incumbent’s death, suggesting the Palmetto State is still expected to stay red even as the replacement process creates two separate contests: one for the temporary Senate appointment and one for the special-election nominee.
Gov. Henry McMaster will need to hold a special primary election on August 11. Candidates can begin to file July 21, with a likely closing date of July 28. McMaster can also appoint a candidate to finish the current term.
Kalshi and Polymarket both have new contracts looking at potential candidates and interim appointments.
Two races, one South Carolina seat
The first race is procedural. McMaster will likely appoint someone to serve the remainder of Graham’s current term, and that appointee can stay in place through the end of the year.
The second race is the real political scramble. South Carolina Republicans now have to pick a nominee for the November ballot. If the August 11 special primary is indecisive, a runoff election will be held August 25.
That means the party has only a short window to turn a high-profile vacancy into a clean general election ticket.
Evette has the early edge
The first market read was pointing to Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette as the most likely successor in the special election scramble. Evette initially garnered President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary race for governor. She ultimately lost to state Attorney General Alan Wilson, whom Trump eventually also endorsed for governor.
Markets are swinging quickly, and Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman have also topped contracts early. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is picking up action.
Polymarket, though, is telling a slightly different story. It had former U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy at 90% early in one South Carolina contract. Norton and Evette are also trending on Polymarket, a reminder that these replacement and appointment contracts are still early and can diverge sharply depending on how traders interpret the governor’s next move.
With low volume, the results are extremely volatile and change quickly. The market is already trying to price the difference between the short-term appointment and the long-term nominee.
Trump, Tim Scott and the intra-party fight
What makes this more than a simple vacancy fight is the GOP’s internal hierarchy. McMaster is the appointment authority, but the real battle for influence is over who can claim the ideological lane Graham leaves open, and that’s where Trump’s preferences, Sen. Tim Scott’s endorsement, and the governor’s own political network could all matter.
Politico’s reporting that Scott has backed Gowdy in the succession scramble shows the race is already becoming a test of institutional influence inside South Carolina Republican politics. Trump announced Monday morning he wants McMaster to appoint Graham Nordone for the interim seat, and has hinted at a preference but has yet to name a candidate for the November nomination.
That also helps explain why some names are getting more traction than others. Evette has the advantage of having already been in Trump’s orbit in the gubernatorial race, while McMaster and U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace are being floated as possible successors but are not really moving the markets yet. Outlets have reported Mace is considering a run.
In other words, this is less about who has the loudest national profile and more about who can be made acceptable to the different factions that still control the state party.
November still leans red
The broader picture of the general election has not really changed. Polymarket is at 83% for Republican Senate control in South Carolina, and Kalshi’s 81% November read says the same thing.
The seat is still expected to stay in GOP hands. That is why the Democratic side is not drawing much market excitement even with a vacancy on the board.
Graham’s death does not make South Carolina competitive in November. Instead, prediction markets are reading the uncertainty about which Republican will replace him.
