Latest news
CFTC Approves Coinbase as a Derivatives Clearing Organization
The approval lets Coinbase clear fully collateralized futures, options on futures and swaps, but does not certify specific markets or prediction markets.
Derek Helling
DeFi Rate NewsPrediction market news and analysis
Our reporting on election markets, the CFTC and the courts, weekly volume, and the companies building prediction markets.
Raman Overtakes Bass in LA Mayor Prediction Markets as $98M Trades on Kalshi
Nithya Raman is trading at 60% to win the Los Angeles mayor’s race after a poll gave her an 11-point lead over Karen Bass, but a large bloc of undecided voters leaves the incumbent a path back.
Cheryle Shepstone
Peltola Holds 70% on Kalshi Despite Staff Allegations as Alaska Senate Race Tightens
Republicans are turning allegations about Mary Peltola’s treatment of staff into an attack ad, but prediction markets still favor the Democrat over Sen. Dan Sullivan in a race that could help decide Senate control.
Cheryle Shepstone
Kalshi Moves to End Volume Rewards as CFTC Scrutinizes Prediction Markets Incentives
Kalshi plans to end a program that pays traders based on volume nearly a year early, as the CFTC reviews incentive schemes across the industry and Chairman Michael Selig weighs possible action this week.
Cheryle Shepstone
Prediction Market Volume Nears $20B as Polymarket US Takes Bigger Share
Combined volume across Kalshi and the two Polymarket venues reached $19.46 billion, with Polymarket US combinations accounting for nearly all of its weekly growth.
Cheryle Shepstone
Volume reports
Kalshi Volume Sets 2026 High at $15.27B With First $3 Billion Day
Matt Bain
Regulation & policy
CFTC Staff Raises Bar for Mention Markets After Manipulation Cases
Cheryle Shepstone
Legal news
Sixth Circuit Rules Against Kalshi, Lets Ohio and Tennessee Enforce Sports Betting Laws
Cheryle Shepstone
Industry
Polymarket US 15-Minute Bitcoin Volume Hits $92M in First Full Week
Cheryle Shepstone
Crypto
SEC Issues Innovation Exemption as CLARITY Act Fails
Iliana Mavrou
Finance & earnings
Kalshi Wants to Bring Margin Trading to Prediction Markets
Cheryle Shepstone
Promo news
Kalshi Promo Code Rate: Get a $25 Bonus for Steelers vs. Browns TNF
The Steelers and Browns meet on Thursday Night Football with Kalshi pricing Pittsburgh at 58% to win; new users can claim a $25 trading bonus with promo code RATE.
Polymarket Promo Code RATE for Eagles vs. Bears MNF $50 Bonus
It's an NFC showdown on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football. New users can snag a $50 welcome bonus for Eagles vs. Bears by using the Polymarket promo code RATE during registration.
Ravens vs. Cowboys Prediction Markets: NFL Predictions with Polymarket Promo Code RATE
Baltimore is favored in Sunday's Rio matchup. See Polymarket US prices, what a $100 position returns and how new users claim the $50 sign up bonus using Polymarket promo code RATE.
Explanation
How we report
What we cover
DeFi Rate’s newsroom covers prediction markets as markets: what traders are pricing, how much money is behind it, and the rules and court cases that decide where these exchanges can operate. Election reports track races where market prices move. Volume reports use exchange data to show where money is going. Regulation and legal coverage follows the CFTC, state regulators and the courts.
Prices in our stories
A price quoted in a story is the price when the story was published, and the story says which venue it came from. Markets keep moving, so for the current price follow the story’s link to our odds page for that market.
Corrections
When we get something wrong, we correct the story and add a dated note saying what changed. Updates that add new information are labeled as updates. Corrections are never made silently.
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DeFi Rate earns commissions when readers open accounts through some links, including promo-code offers. Those relationships don’t decide which stories we run or what they say, and promotional posts are labeled Odds and promos.
Methodology
Every story names its primary source. Prices quoted in a story are from the time it was published, and each says which venue they came from. Full methodology →
Full methodology
SourcingEvery story names its primary source: a filing, a court document, an exchange announcement or market data.
Market pricesPrices quoted in a story are from the time it was published, with the venue named. Our odds pages carry the current price.
CorrectionsCorrections and material updates are noted on the story with a date.
IndependenceCommercial relationships with exchanges don’t decide what we cover or how.
Questions
How often is prediction market news updated?
Stories publish throughout the day. The time this page was last updated is shown under the headline.
Why is a story’s price different from the odds page?
The story quotes the market when it was published. Our odds pages show the latest price, with the time it was observed.
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