Portugal and Croatia meet on Thursday in the World Cup knockout round. Kickoff from BMO Field in Toronto is set for 7 p.m. ET, with live coverage on FOX.
Kalshi lists Portugal as the favorite to advance at odds of -223, with an implied probability of 69%. Croatia is priced at +223 (31%), with a regulation-time draw priced at +257 (28%).
New Kalshi users can claim a $10 trading bonus with the promo code RATE for this World Cup match.
How to claim the Kalshi $10 bonus for Portugal vs. Croatia
- Register for a new account: Visit Kalshi.com and click the “Sign Up” button or download the app directly to register.
- Verify your personal information: Provide the requested information, including your full name, email address, SSN, phone number, and date of birth. Kalshi uses Verify.com to complete the KYC process.
- Enter promo code: Use RATE when signing up for your new account.
- Make your initial deposit: Deposit $10 using a debit card, PayPal, Venmo, or another available method. The minimum deposit is $1.
- Place Your Trades: Select your chosen market(s) and make your trades. Once you’ve completed $10 in trades, you’ll receive the $10 trading bonus.
Full terms and conditions are available on our Kalshi promo code guide.
Enter the correct Kalshi promo code for your state
| Promo Code | Eligible States |
|---|---|
| RATE | All States + DC, excluding AR, AZ, CT, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, and OH. |
Portugal vs. Croatia odds at Kalshi
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Portugal advances | 69% | -223 |
| Croatia advances | 31% | +223 |
| Portugal win (end of regulation) | 56% | -127 |
| Croatia win (end of regulation) | 18% | +456 |
| Draw (end of regulation) | 28% | +257 |
| Regulation – Portugal to win by 1.5 goals | 33% | +203 |
| Regulation – Over 2.5 goals scored | 55% | -122 |
| Regulation – Both teams to score | 59% | -108 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo goal | 47% | +127 |
Portugal vs. Croatia preview
The Seleção enters this match against Croatia with a ton of momentum. Portugal is riding an eight-game unbeaten streak, winning five and drawing three. During that span, Portugal produced four clean sheets, allowing only four goals.
Veteran players are the focal point for each side. Cristiano Ronaldo, at 41, scored a pair of goals in a win against Uzbekistan. Luka Modric is the field general for Croatia at the midfielder position. Modric assisted on the winner against Ghana, which propelled Croatia to the knockout stage.
Portugal has won seven of 10 all-time meetings against Croatia. Notably, seven of the last eight matches were either draws or one-goal decisions.
The squad is an attack-minded side, but it has struggled a bit on the back line. It’d be no surprise to see this match go to extra time and possibly penalty kicks.
Croatia is 4-0 in World Cup finals matches decided by penalties. Portugal is +1438 (6.5%) to win the World Cup, and Croatia is listed at +33233 (0.3%).
Why trade on Portugal vs. Croatia
Kalshi markets have been incredibly liquid throughout the World Cup. They allow for entering and exiting positions at any time before markets settle, providing ample opportunity to make live trades as matches play out. You can respond to momentum shifts and score changes with ease. There’s also an extensive selection of futures markets to trade on, including which teams will advance to the Round of 16. New Kalshi users can apply the promo code RATE during registration to receive a $10 bonus after making $10 in trades.
NOTE: Prediction markets involve risk. Prices can move quickly before and during live events. Users should trade only with money they can afford to lose, review the rules for each market before buying shares, and avoid chasing losses.
