Lions vs. Bills Week 2 Odds & Predictions
Thursday Night Football brings Detroit to Orchard Park for Buffalo's Week 2 home date on September 17 at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Prediction markets currently make Buffalo the favorite at -158 (61.3% implied probability), while Detroit is priced at +158 (38.7%). The Lions vs. Bills board compares exact full-game winner prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, using volume-weighted pricing to show the consensus line, venue spreads and trading volume with hourly updates.
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Current Lions vs. Bills Odds: Buffalo Favorite to Win
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
BUBuffalo
Vol —
Spread 1.5%
Agg
61.3%↑ +2.8%
U
62.0%
K
61.5%
P
60.5%
DEDetroit
Vol —
Spread 1.0%
Agg
38.7%↓ -2.3%
P
39.5%
K
38.5%
U
38.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU Buffalo | 61.3% ↑ +2.8% | 1.5% | — |
Kalshi
61.5%
|
Polymarket
60.5%
|
Polymarket US
62.0%
|
DE Detroit | 38.7% ↓ -2.3% | 1.0% | — |
Kalshi
38.5%
|
Polymarket
39.5%
|
Polymarket US
38.5%
|
Week 2 line movement: Lions vs. Bills
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Chart settings
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU Buffalo |
Polymarket
→
Polymarket US | Buy @ P 41¢ | Sell @ U 61.5¢ | +20.50% | +20.50% |
Yes | |
DE Detroit |
Polymarket US
→
Polymarket | Buy @ U 38.5¢ | Sell @ P 38¢ | -0.50% | -0.50% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU Buffalo |
DE Detroit |
Polymarket US | A 62.0% | B 38.5% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
BU Buffalo |
DE Detroit |
Kalshi | A 61.5% | B 38.5% | +23.00% | Buy spread | |
BU Buffalo |
DE Detroit |
Polymarket | A 60.5% | B 39.5% | +21.00% | Buy spread |
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket US: Gateway market data (yes/no prices + best bid/ask + market stats for volume/open interest where available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.
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