2027 Oscars Odds: Best Picture, Actor, Actress &amp; Director

Avengers: Doomsday

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

— +0.0%

K 4.5%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $0 1–8¢

Michael

Vol $217 Spread —

Agg 2.0%

↓ -10.5%

K 2.0%

Kalshi 2.0%

Vol $217 0–4¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TO The Odyssey	87.0% — +0.0%	—	$69	Kalshi 87.0% 86–88¢ Vol $69
DPT Dune: Part Three	76.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 76.5% 73–80¢ Vol $0
PHM Project Hail Mary	69.0% — +0.0%	—	$830	Kalshi 69.0% 68–70¢ Vol $830
DI Digger	63.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 63.0% 61–65¢ Vol $0
WHN Wild Horse Nine	63.0% — +0.0%	—	$20	Kalshi 63.0% 60–66¢ Vol $20
DD Disclosure Day	42.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$44	Kalshi 42.0% 40–44¢ Vol $44
TSR The Social Reckoning	42.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$41	Kalshi 42.0% 39–45¢ Vol $41
1F 1949 / Fatherland	41.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 41.5% 39–44¢ Vol $0
TAO The Adventures of Cliff Booth	41.5% ↓ -0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 41.5% 39–44¢ Vol $0
NTM Narnia: The Magician's Nephew	37.0% ↑ +8.5%	—	$158	Kalshi 37.0% 33–41¢ Vol $158
FJ Fjord	36.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 36.0% 32–40¢ Vol $0
JO Josephine	33.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 33.0% 30–36¢ Vol $0
PT Parallel Tales	32.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 32.0% 31–33¢ Vol $0
CTH Cry to Heaven	29.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 29.0% 25–33¢ Vol $0
BE Behemoth	26.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 26.5% 23–30¢ Vol $0
AOA All of a Sudden	26.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 26.0% 22–30¢ Vol $0
WE Werwulf	26.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$146	Kalshi 26.0% 23–29¢ Vol $146
BH Being Heumann	25.0% — +0.0%	—	$3	Kalshi 25.0% 21–29¢ Vol $3
SAS Sense and Sensibility	24.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 24.5% 21–28¢ Vol $0
ILB I Love Boosters	20.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 20.0% 16–24¢ Vol $0
JOS Jack of Spades	18.0% — +0.0%	—	$3	Kalshi 18.0% 14–22¢ Vol $3
SR Saturn Return	18.0% — +0.0%	—	$3	Kalshi 18.0% 14–22¢ Vol $3
AR Artificial	16.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 16.5% 13–20¢ Vol $0
TES The Entertainment System Is Down	13.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$247	Kalshi 13.5% 11–16¢ Vol $247
TDO The Death of Robin Hood	12.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 12.5% 9–16¢ Vol $0
TD The Drama	8.5% ↑ +3.0%	—	$9	Kalshi 8.5% 5–12¢ Vol $9
IN Ink	7.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 7.0% 3–11¢ Vol $0
AD Avengers: Doomsday	4.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 4.5% 1–8¢ Vol $0
MI Michael	2.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$217	Kalshi 2.0% 0–4¢ Vol $217

Predictions for 2027 Best Picture Award

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

The Odyssey

Vol $448 Spread —

Agg 35.0%

↑ +0.5%

K 35.0%

Kalshi 35.0%

Vol $448 33–37¢

PHM

Project Hail Mary

Vol $290 Spread —

Agg 9.5%

↑ +1.0%

K 9.5%

Kalshi 9.5%

Vol $290 8–11¢

DPT

Dune: Part Three

Vol $213 Spread —

Agg 9.0%

— +0.0%

K 9.0%

Kalshi 9.0%

Vol $213 8–10¢

TSR

The Social Reckoning

Vol $376 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

K 8.0%

Kalshi 8.0%

Vol $376 7–9¢

WHN

Wild Horse Nine

Vol $19 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

↓ -0.5%

K 7.0%

Vol $19 6–8¢

Digger

Vol $43 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

— +0.0%

K 6.5%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $43 6–7¢

1949 / Fatherland

Vol $1 Spread —

Agg 3.5%

— +0.0%

K 3.5%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1 2–5¢

Fjord

Vol $95 Spread —

Agg 3.5%

↑ +1.5%

K 3.5%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $95 3–4¢

Disclosure Day

Vol $24 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $24 2–3¢

AOA

All of a Sudden

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 2.0%

— +0.0%

K 2.0%

Kalshi 2.0%

Vol $0 1–3¢

Behemoth

Vol $5 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Vol $5 1–2¢

CTH

Cry to Heaven

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

NTM

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew

Vol $231 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Vol $231 1–2¢

TAO

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Michael

Vol $8 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

K 1.0%

Kalshi 1.0%

Vol $8 0–2¢

TES

The Entertainment System Is Down

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

K 1.0%

Kalshi 1.0%

Vol $0 0–2¢

Artificial

Vol $12 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Vol $12 0–1¢

Avengers: Doomsday

Vol $6 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Vol $6 0–1¢

ILB

I Love Boosters

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Ink

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Josephine

Vol $5 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

SAS

Sense and Sensibility

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

TDO

The Death of Robin Hood

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

The Drama

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Tie

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Werwulf

Vol $5 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Vol $5 0–1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TO The Odyssey	35.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$448	Kalshi 35.0% 33–37¢ Vol $448
PHM Project Hail Mary	9.5% ↑ +1.0%	—	$290	Kalshi 9.5% 8–11¢ Vol $290
DPT Dune: Part Three	9.0% — +0.0%	—	$213	Kalshi 9.0% 8–10¢ Vol $213
TSR The Social Reckoning	8.0% — +0.0%	—	$376	Kalshi 8.0% 7–9¢ Vol $376
WHN Wild Horse Nine	7.0% ↓ -0.5%	—	$19	Kalshi 7.0% 6–8¢ Vol $19
DI Digger	6.5% — +0.0%	—	$43	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $43
1F 1949 / Fatherland	3.5% — +0.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 3.5% 2–5¢ Vol $1
FJ Fjord	3.5% ↑ +1.5%	—	$95	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $95
DD Disclosure Day	2.5% — +0.0%	—	$24	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $24
AOA All of a Sudden	2.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 2.0% 1–3¢ Vol $0
BE Behemoth	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$5	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $5
CTH Cry to Heaven	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0
NTM Narnia: The Magician's Nephew	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$231	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $231
TAO The Adventures of Cliff Booth	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0
MI Michael	1.0% — +0.0%	—	$8	Kalshi 1.0% 0–2¢ Vol $8
TES The Entertainment System Is Down	1.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.0% 0–2¢ Vol $0
AR Artificial	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$12	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12
AD Avengers: Doomsday	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$6	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $6
ILB I Love Boosters	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
IN Ink	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JO Josephine	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$5	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5
SAS Sense and Sensibility	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TDO The Death of Robin Hood	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TD The Drama	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
WE Werwulf	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$5	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5

Predictions on 2027 Oscar for Best Actor

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Tom Cruise

Vol $18 Spread —

Agg 24.5%

— +0.0%

K 24.5%

Kalshi 24.5%

Vol $18 21–28¢

John Malkovich

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 24.0%

— +0.0%

K 24.0%

Kalshi 24.0%

Vol $0 22–26¢

Sebastian Stan

Vol $53 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↑ +2.0%

K 6.5%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $53 6–7¢

JOC

Josh O'Connor

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

— +0.0%

K 5.0%

Kalshi 5.0%

Vol $0 1–9¢

Brad Pitt

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.0%

— +0.0%

K 4.0%

Kalshi 4.0%

Vol $0 0–8¢

Adam Driver

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 3.0%

— +0.0%

K 3.0%

Andrew Scott

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 3.0%

— +0.0%

K 3.0%

Channing Tatum

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 3.0%

— +0.0%

K 3.0%

Charles Melton

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 3.0%

— +0.0%

K 3.0%

Keanu Reeves

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 3.0%

— +0.0%

K 3.0%

Tie

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Vol $0 0–3¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TC Tom Cruise	24.5% — +0.0%	—	$18	Kalshi 24.5% 21–28¢ Vol $18
JM John Malkovich	24.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 24.0% 22–26¢ Vol $0
SS Sebastian Stan	6.5% ↑ +2.0%	—	$53	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $53
JOC Josh O'Connor	5.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 5.0% 1–9¢ Vol $0
BP Brad Pitt	4.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 4.0% 0–8¢ Vol $0
AD Adam Driver	3.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 3.0% 0–6¢ Vol $0
AS Andrew Scott	3.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 3.0% 0–6¢ Vol $0
CT Channing Tatum	3.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 3.0% 0–6¢ Vol $0
CM Charles Melton	3.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 3.0% 0–6¢ Vol $0
KR Keanu Reeves	3.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 3.0% 0–6¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 0–3¢ Vol $0

2027 Best Director odds and predictions

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Christopher Nolan

Vol $25 Spread —

Agg 36.5%

↓ -0.5%

K 36.5%

Kalshi 36.5%

Vol $25 33–40¢

Martin McDonagh

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 17.5%

— +0.0%

K 17.5%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $0 14–21¢

David Fincher

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 9.0%

— +0.0%

K 9.0%

Kalshi 9.0%

Vol $0 6–12¢

PLC

Phil Lord & Christopher Miller

Vol $80 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

↑ +4.5%

K 8.0%

Kalshi 8.0%

Vol $80 7–9¢

Danny Boyle

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

— +0.0%

K 7.0%

Joel Coen

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

— +0.0%

K 7.0%

Steven Spielberg

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

— +0.0%

K 7.0%

Andrew Haigh

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

↓ -1.0%

K 6.0%

NHJ

Na Hong-jin

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

↓ -1.0%

K 6.0%

Tie

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 2.0%

— +0.0%

K 2.0%

Kalshi 2.0%

Vol $0 0–4¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
CN Christopher Nolan	36.5% ↓ -0.5%	—	$25	Kalshi 36.5% 33–40¢ Vol $25
MM Martin McDonagh	17.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 17.5% 14–21¢ Vol $0
DF David Fincher	9.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 9.0% 6–12¢ Vol $0
PLC Phil Lord & Christopher Miller	8.0% ↑ +4.5%	—	$80	Kalshi 8.0% 7–9¢ Vol $80
DB Danny Boyle	7.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 7.0% 3–11¢ Vol $0
JC Joel Coen	7.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 7.0% 3–11¢ Vol $0
SS Steven Spielberg	7.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 7.0% 3–11¢ Vol $0
AH Andrew Haigh	6.0% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 6.0% 2–10¢ Vol $0
NHJ Na Hong-jin	6.0% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 6.0% 2–10¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	2.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 2.0% 0–4¢ Vol $0

2027 Oscar for Best Actress Award Predictions

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

Renate Reinsve

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 22.5%

— +0.0%

K 22.5%

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $0 19–26¢

Sandra Hüller

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 16.0%

— +0.0%

K 16.0%

Kalshi 16.0%

Vol $0 13–19¢

Cynthia Erivo

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

K 8.0%

Kalshi 8.0%

Vol $0 4–12¢

Dakota Johnson

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

— +0.0%

K 6.0%

Joan Collins

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

— +0.0%

K 6.0%

Kirsten Dunst

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

— +0.0%

K 6.0%

Natalie Portman

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

— +0.0%

K 6.0%

Penélope Cruz

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

— +0.0%

K 6.0%

Scarlett Johansson

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

— +0.0%

K 6.0%

Tie

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%