2027 Oscars Odds: Best Picture, Actor, Actress & Director

LIVE

Updated 49 minutes ago · 10:47 PM PDT

Prediction markets have The Odyssey as the frontrunner for a 2027 Best Picture nomination ahead of the Academy's January 21, 2027 announcement. The Oscars nominations market tracks the 99th Academy Awards, with Universal's $250M production, Nolan's prior Best Picture win for Oppenheimer, and a cast including Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, and Lupita Nyong'o driving the film's lead. Project Hail Mary has a 94.0% chance of being nominated, while Dune: Part Three is the next-strongest contender at 82.0% probability of being named. DeFi Rate aggregates live 2027 Oscars odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

Largest Spread

0.00%

Current Favorite

97.0%

The Odyssey +10.0%

30D Volume (Share)

$76.7K

Momentum Leader

+29.0%

Ink YTD change

Which Film Will Be Nominated for Best Picture?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

The Odyssey

Vol $24.2K Spread —

Agg 97.0%

↑ +10.0%

K 97.0%

Kalshi 97.0%

Vol $24.2K 96–98¢

PHM

Project Hail Mary

Vol $17.7K Spread —

Agg 94.0%

↑ +24.5%

K 94.0%

Kalshi 94.0%

Vol $17.7K 93–95¢

DPT

Dune: Part Three

Vol $1.7K Spread —

Agg 82.0%

↑ +6.0%

K 82.0%

Kalshi 82.0%

Vol $1.7K 81–83¢

WHN

Wild Horse Nine

Vol $845 Spread —

Agg 77.5%

↑ +14.5%

K 77.5%

Kalshi 77.5%

Vol $845 77–78¢

Fjord

Vol $2.6K Spread —

Agg 63.0%

↑ +27.0%

K 63.0%

Kalshi 63.0%

Vol $2.6K 62–64¢

Digger

Vol $4.2K Spread —

Agg 62.0%

↓ -1.0%

K 62.0%

Kalshi 62.0%

Vol $4.2K 60–64¢

Behemoth

Vol $2.1K Spread —

Agg 46.0%

↑ +19.5%

K 46.0%

Kalshi 46.0%

Vol $2.1K 44–48¢

Ink

Vol $1.7K Spread —

Agg 36.0%

↑ +29.0%

K 36.0%

Kalshi 36.0%

Vol $1.7K 35–37¢

TAO

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Vol $1.3K Spread —

Agg 27.0%

↓ -15.0%

K 27.0%

Kalshi 27.0%

Vol $1.3K 25–29¢

Being Heumann

Vol $1.2K Spread —

Agg 26.5%

↑ +1.5%

K 26.5%

Kalshi 26.5%

Vol $1.2K 24–29¢

TSR

The Social Reckoning

Vol $1.8K Spread —

Agg 23.5%

↓ -17.5%

K 23.5%

Kalshi 23.5%

Vol $1.8K 22–25¢

AOA

All of a Sudden

Vol $1.9K Spread —

Agg 23.0%

↓ -3.0%

K 23.0%

Kalshi 23.0%

Vol $1.9K 21–25¢

Saturn Return

Vol $2.5K Spread —

Agg 21.5%

↑ +3.5%

K 21.5%

Kalshi 21.5%

Vol $2.5K 20–23¢

Josephine

Vol $2.3K Spread —

Agg 18.0%

↓ -15.0%

K 18.0%

Kalshi 18.0%

Vol $2.3K 16–20¢

SAS

Sense and Sensibility

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 14.0%

↓ -10.5%

K 14.0%

Kalshi 14.0%

Vol $1.5K 11–17¢

1949 / Fatherland

Vol $675 Spread —

Agg 12.5%

↓ -27.5%

K 12.5%

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $675 11–14¢

Michael

Vol $766 Spread —

Agg 11.5%

↓ -1.0%

K 11.5%

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $766 10–13¢

CTH

Cry to Heaven

Vol $327 Spread —

Agg 10.0%

↓ -19.0%

K 10.0%

Kalshi 10.0%

Vol $327 9–11¢

Disclosure Day

Vol $2.3K Spread —

Agg 9.0%

↓ -32.5%

K 9.0%

Kalshi 9.0%

Vol $2.3K 8–10¢

JOS

Jack of Spades

Vol $840 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

↓ -10.0%

K 8.0%

Kalshi 8.0%

Vol $840 7–9¢

The Drama

Vol $150 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

↑ +2.0%

K 7.0%

Kalshi 7.0%

Vol $150 5–9¢

Artificial

Vol $694 Spread —

Agg 6.0%

↓ -10.5%

K 6.0%

Kalshi 6.0%

Vol $694 5–7¢

Avengers: Doomsday

Vol $1.5K Spread —

Agg 3.5%

↓ -1.0%

K 3.5%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $1.5K 2–5¢

Werwulf

Vol $422 Spread —

Agg 3.5%

↓ -21.5%

K 3.5%

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $422 1–6¢

ILB

I Love Boosters

Vol $24 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -17.5%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $24 1–4¢

Parallel Tales

Vol $3 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -29.5%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $3 2–3¢

TES

The Entertainment System Is Down

Vol $179 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -10.5%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $179 1–4¢

NTM

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 1.5%

↓ -28.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $1.1K 1–2¢

TDO

The Death of Robin Hood

Vol $50 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

↓ -11.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $50 1–2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TO The Odyssey	97.0% ↑ +10.0%	—	$24.2K	Kalshi 97.0% 96–98¢ Vol $24.2K
PHM Project Hail Mary	94.0% ↑ +24.5%	—	$17.7K	Kalshi 94.0% 93–95¢ Vol $17.7K
DPT Dune: Part Three	82.0% ↑ +6.0%	—	$1.7K	Kalshi 82.0% 81–83¢ Vol $1.7K
WHN Wild Horse Nine	77.5% ↑ +14.5%	—	$845	Kalshi 77.5% 77–78¢ Vol $845
FJ Fjord	63.0% ↑ +27.0%	—	$2.6K	Kalshi 63.0% 62–64¢ Vol $2.6K
DI Digger	62.0% ↓ -1.0%	—	$4.2K	Kalshi 62.0% 60–64¢ Vol $4.2K
BE Behemoth	46.0% ↑ +19.5%	—	$2.1K	Kalshi 46.0% 44–48¢ Vol $2.1K
IN Ink	36.0% ↑ +29.0%	—	$1.7K	Kalshi 36.0% 35–37¢ Vol $1.7K
TAO The Adventures of Cliff Booth	27.0% ↓ -15.0%	—	$1.3K	Kalshi 27.0% 25–29¢ Vol $1.3K
BH Being Heumann	26.5% ↑ +1.5%	—	$1.2K	Kalshi 26.5% 24–29¢ Vol $1.2K
TSR The Social Reckoning	23.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$1.8K	Kalshi 23.5% 22–25¢ Vol $1.8K
AOA All of a Sudden	23.0% ↓ -3.0%	—	$1.9K	Kalshi 23.0% 21–25¢ Vol $1.9K
SR Saturn Return	21.5% ↑ +3.5%	—	$2.5K	Kalshi 21.5% 20–23¢ Vol $2.5K
JO Josephine	18.0% ↓ -15.0%	—	$2.3K	Kalshi 18.0% 16–20¢ Vol $2.3K
SAS Sense and Sensibility	14.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi 14.0% 11–17¢ Vol $1.5K
1F 1949 / Fatherland	12.5% ↓ -27.5%	—	$675	Kalshi 12.5% 11–14¢ Vol $675
MI Michael	11.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$766	Kalshi 11.5% 10–13¢ Vol $766
CTH Cry to Heaven	10.0% ↓ -19.0%	—	$327	Kalshi 10.0% 9–11¢ Vol $327
DD Disclosure Day	9.0% ↓ -32.5%	—	$2.3K	Kalshi 9.0% 8–10¢ Vol $2.3K
JOS Jack of Spades	8.0% ↓ -10.0%	—	$840	Kalshi 8.0% 7–9¢ Vol $840
TD The Drama	7.0% ↑ +2.0%	—	$150	Kalshi 7.0% 5–9¢ Vol $150
AR Artificial	6.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$694	Kalshi 6.0% 5–7¢ Vol $694
AD Avengers: Doomsday	3.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$1.5K	Kalshi 3.5% 2–5¢ Vol $1.5K
WE Werwulf	3.5% ↓ -21.5%	—	$422	Kalshi 3.5% 1–6¢ Vol $422
ILB I Love Boosters	2.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$24	Kalshi 2.5% 1–4¢ Vol $24
PT Parallel Tales	2.5% ↓ -29.5%	—	$3	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $3
TES The Entertainment System Is Down	2.5% ↓ -10.5%	—	$179	Kalshi 2.5% 1–4¢ Vol $179
NTM Narnia: The Magician's Nephew	1.5% ↓ -28.0%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $1.1K
TDO The Death of Robin Hood	1.5% ↓ -11.0%	—	$50	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $50

Predictions for 2027 Best Picture Award

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

The Odyssey

Vol $9.6K Spread —

Agg 48.5%

↑ +19.0%

K 48.5%

Kalshi 48.5%

Vol $9.6K 48–49¢

DPT

Dune: Part Three

Vol $1.7K Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↑ +9.0%

K 17.5%

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $1.7K 17–18¢

Digger

Vol $306 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -1.0%

K 6.5%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $306 6–7¢

WHN

Wild Horse Nine

Vol $102 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 6.5%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $102 6–7¢

PHM

Project Hail Mary

Vol $62 Spread —

Agg 4.0%

↓ -4.0%

K 4.0%

Kalshi 4.0%

Vol $62 3–5¢

Fjord

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $0 2–3¢

Behemoth

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

TAO

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Vol $3 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $3 1–2¢

TSR

The Social Reckoning

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↓ -7.0%

K 1.0%

Kalshi 1.0%

Vol $0 0–2¢

1949 / Fatherland

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -3.0%

K 0.5%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TO The Odyssey	48.5% ↑ +19.0%	—	$9.6K	Kalshi 48.5% 48–49¢ Vol $9.6K
DPT Dune: Part Three	17.5% ↑ +9.0%	—	$1.7K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $1.7K
DI Digger	6.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$306	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $306
WHN Wild Horse Nine	6.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$102	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $102
PHM Project Hail Mary	4.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$62	Kalshi 4.0% 3–5¢ Vol $62
FJ Fjord	2.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $0
BE Behemoth	1.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0
TAO The Adventures of Cliff Booth	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$3	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $3
TSR The Social Reckoning	1.0% ↓ -7.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.0% 0–2¢ Vol $0
1F 1949 / Fatherland	0.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
AOA All of a Sudden	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
AR Artificial	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
AD Avengers: Doomsday	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$68	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $68
CTH Cry to Heaven	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
DD Disclosure Day	0.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
ILB I Love Boosters	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
IN Ink	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JO Josephine	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
MI Michael	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
NTM Narnia: The Magician's Nephew	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
SAS Sense and Sensibility	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TDO The Death of Robin Hood	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TD The Drama	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TES The Entertainment System Is Down	0.5% ↓ -0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1
WE Werwulf	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TC Tom Cruise	30.5% ↑ +6.0%	—	$171	Kalshi 30.5% 30–31¢ Vol $171
AS Andrew Scott	13.0% ↑ +10.0%	—	$21	Kalshi 13.0% 12–14¢ Vol $21
JM John Malkovich	6.0% ↓ -18.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 6.0% 5–7¢ Vol $0
BP Brad Pitt	1.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0
SS Sebastian Stan	1.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $1
AD Adam Driver	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
CT Channing Tatum	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
CM Charles Melton	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JOC Josh O'Connor	0.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
KR Keanu Reeves	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
CN Christopher Nolan	72.5% ↑ +39.5%	—	$428	Kalshi 72.5% 71–74¢ Vol $428
MM Martin McDonagh	3.5% ↓ -15.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $1
DB Danny Boyle	1.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$56	Kalshi 1.5% 0–3¢ Vol $56
DF David Fincher	1.5% ↓ -7.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0
PLC Phil Lord & Christopher Miller	1.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0
AH Andrew Haigh	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JC Joel Coen	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
NHJ Na Hong-jin	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
SS Steven Spielberg	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
RR Renate Reinsve	12.0% ↓ -10.5%	—	$3	Kalshi 12.0% 10–14¢ Vol $3
SH Sandra Hüller	12.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$4	Kalshi 12.0% 11–13¢ Vol $4
CE Cynthia Erivo	4.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $0
PC Penélope Cruz	2.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$34	Kalshi 2.0% 1–3¢ Vol $34
SJ Scarlett Johansson	1.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0
DJ Dakota Johnson	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JC Joan Collins	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
KD Kirsten Dunst	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
NP Natalie Portman	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

2027 Oscars Odds: Best Picture, Actor, Actress & Director

Which Film Will Be Nominated for Best Picture?

Predictions for 2027 Best Picture Award

Predictions on 2027 Oscar for Best Actor

2027 Best Director odds and predictions

2027 Oscar for Best Actress Award Predictions