2027 Oscars Odds: Best Picture, Actor, Actress & Director

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Updated 56 minutes ago · 8:47 PM PDT

Prediction markets have The Odyssey as the frontrunner for a 2027 Best Picture nomination ahead of the Academy's January 21, 2027 announcement. The Oscars nominations market tracks the 99th Academy Awards, with Universal's $250M production, Nolan's prior Best Picture win for Oppenheimer, and a cast including Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, and Lupita Nyong'o driving the film's lead. Project Hail Mary has a 90.5% chance of being nominated, while Dune: Part Three is the next-strongest contender at 82.5% probability of being named. DeFi Rate aggregates live 2027 Oscars odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

Largest Spread

0.00%

Current Favorite

98.5%

The Odyssey +11.5%

24H Volume (Share)

$1.2K

Momentum Leader

+28.5%

Ink YTD change

Which Film Will Be Nominated for Best Picture?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

The Odyssey

Vol $5 Spread —

Agg 98.5%

↑ +11.5%

K 98.5%

Kalshi 98.5%

Vol $5 98–99¢

PHM

Project Hail Mary

Vol $108 Spread —

Agg 90.5%

↑ +21.0%

K 90.5%

Kalshi 90.5%

Vol $108 90–91¢

DPT

Dune: Part Three

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 82.5%

↑ +6.5%

K 82.5%

Kalshi 82.5%

Vol $0 81–84¢

WHN

Wild Horse Nine

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 76.5%

↑ +13.5%

K 76.5%

Kalshi 76.5%

Vol $0 74–79¢

Digger

Vol $265 Spread —

Agg 63.0%

— +0.0%

K 63.0%

Kalshi 63.0%

Vol $265 62–64¢

Fjord

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 62.0%

↑ +26.0%

K 62.0%

Kalshi 62.0%

Vol $0 61–63¢

Behemoth

Vol $12 Spread —

Agg 43.0%

↑ +16.5%

K 43.0%

Kalshi 43.0%

Vol $12 41–45¢

Ink

Vol $15 Spread —

Agg 35.5%

↑ +28.5%

K 35.5%

Kalshi 35.5%

Vol $15 35–36¢

Being Heumann

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 26.0%

↑ +1.0%

K 26.0%

Kalshi 26.0%

Vol $0 24–28¢

AOA

All of a Sudden

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 22.5%

↓ -3.5%

K 22.5%

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $0 21–24¢

TAO

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Vol $1 Spread —

Agg 19.5%

↓ -22.5%

K 19.5%

Kalshi 19.5%

Vol $1 19–20¢

Josephine

Vol $45 Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -17.5%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $45 15–16¢

TSR

The Social Reckoning

Vol $31 Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↓ -25.5%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $31 14–17¢

SAS

Sense and Sensibility

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 14.5%

↓ -10.0%

K 14.5%

Kalshi 14.5%

Vol $0 14–15¢

JOS

Jack of Spades

Vol $33 Spread —

Agg 13.5%

↓ -4.5%

K 13.5%

Kalshi 13.5%

Vol $33 12–15¢

Michael

Vol $154 Spread —

Agg 12.5%

— +0.0%

K 12.5%

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $154 10–15¢

Artificial

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 12.0%

↓ -4.5%

K 12.0%

Kalshi 12.0%

Vol $0 11–13¢

CTH

Cry to Heaven

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 11.5%

↓ -17.5%

K 11.5%

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $0 10–13¢

Saturn Return

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 10.5%

↓ -7.5%

K 10.5%

Kalshi 10.5%

Vol $0 10–11¢

Disclosure Day

Vol $10 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

↓ -33.5%

K 8.0%

Kalshi 8.0%

Vol $10 7–9¢

The Drama

Vol $1 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

↑ +2.0%

K 7.0%

Kalshi 7.0%

Vol $1 4–10¢

1949 / Fatherland

Vol $8 Spread —

Agg 5.5%

↓ -34.5%

K 5.5%

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $8 5–6¢

Avengers: Doomsday

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.5%

↑ +1.0%

K 5.5%

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $0 4–7¢

Werwulf

Vol $9 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

↓ -20.0%

K 5.0%

Kalshi 5.0%

Vol $9 4–6¢

TES

The Entertainment System Is Down

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↓ -8.5%

K 4.5%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $0 4–5¢

ILB

I Love Boosters

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -17.5%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $0 1–4¢

Parallel Tales

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -29.5%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $0 2–3¢

NTM

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew

Vol $508 Spread —

Agg 2.0%

↓ -27.5%

K 2.0%

Kalshi 2.0%

Vol $508 1–3¢

TDO

The Death of Robin Hood

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

↓ -11.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TO The Odyssey	98.5% ↑ +11.5%	—	$5	Kalshi 98.5% 98–99¢ Vol $5
PHM Project Hail Mary	90.5% ↑ +21.0%	—	$108	Kalshi 90.5% 90–91¢ Vol $108
DPT Dune: Part Three	82.5% ↑ +6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 82.5% 81–84¢ Vol $0
WHN Wild Horse Nine	76.5% ↑ +13.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 76.5% 74–79¢ Vol $0
DI Digger	63.0% — +0.0%	—	$265	Kalshi 63.0% 62–64¢ Vol $265
FJ Fjord	62.0% ↑ +26.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 62.0% 61–63¢ Vol $0
BE Behemoth	43.0% ↑ +16.5%	—	$12	Kalshi 43.0% 41–45¢ Vol $12
IN Ink	35.5% ↑ +28.5%	—	$15	Kalshi 35.5% 35–36¢ Vol $15
BH Being Heumann	26.0% ↑ +1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 26.0% 24–28¢ Vol $0
AOA All of a Sudden	22.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 22.5% 21–24¢ Vol $0
TAO The Adventures of Cliff Booth	19.5% ↓ -22.5%	—	$1	Kalshi 19.5% 19–20¢ Vol $1
JO Josephine	15.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$45	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $45
TSR The Social Reckoning	15.5% ↓ -25.5%	—	$31	Kalshi 15.5% 14–17¢ Vol $31
SAS Sense and Sensibility	14.5% ↓ -10.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 14.5% 14–15¢ Vol $0
JOS Jack of Spades	13.5% ↓ -4.5%	—	$33	Kalshi 13.5% 12–15¢ Vol $33
MI Michael	12.5% — +0.0%	—	$154	Kalshi 12.5% 10–15¢ Vol $154
AR Artificial	12.0% ↓ -4.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 12.0% 11–13¢ Vol $0
CTH Cry to Heaven	11.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 11.5% 10–13¢ Vol $0
SR Saturn Return	10.5% ↓ -7.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $0
DD Disclosure Day	8.0% ↓ -33.5%	—	$10	Kalshi 8.0% 7–9¢ Vol $10
TD The Drama	7.0% ↑ +2.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 7.0% 4–10¢ Vol $1
1F 1949 / Fatherland	5.5% ↓ -34.5%	—	$8	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $8
AD Avengers: Doomsday	5.5% ↑ +1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 5.5% 4–7¢ Vol $0
WE Werwulf	5.0% ↓ -20.0%	—	$9	Kalshi 5.0% 4–6¢ Vol $9
TES The Entertainment System Is Down	4.5% ↓ -8.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $0
ILB I Love Boosters	2.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 2.5% 1–4¢ Vol $0
PT Parallel Tales	2.5% ↓ -29.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $0
NTM Narnia: The Magician's Nephew	2.0% ↓ -27.5%	—	$508	Kalshi 2.0% 1–3¢ Vol $508
TDO The Death of Robin Hood	1.5% ↓ -11.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0

Predictions for 2027 Best Picture Award

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

The Odyssey

Vol $13.4K Spread —

Agg 57.5%

↑ +28.0%

K 57.5%

Kalshi 57.5%

Vol $13.4K 57–58¢

DPT

Dune: Part Three

Vol $2.8K Spread —

Agg 15.5%

↑ +7.0%

K 15.5%

Kalshi 15.5%

Vol $2.8K 15–16¢

Digger

Vol $1.3K Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -1.0%

K 6.5%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $1.3K 6–7¢

WHN

Wild Horse Nine

Vol $33 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -1.5%

K 6.5%

Kalshi 6.5%

Vol $33 6–7¢

PHM

Project Hail Mary

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↓ -3.5%

K 4.5%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $1.1K 4–5¢

Fjord

Vol $14 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 2.5%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $14 2–3¢

Behemoth

Vol $113 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

↑ +0.5%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $113 1–2¢

TAO

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Vol $2.7K Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $2.7K 1–2¢

1949 / Fatherland

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -3.0%

K 0.5%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TO The Odyssey	57.5% ↑ +28.0%	—	$13.4K	Kalshi 57.5% 57–58¢ Vol $13.4K
DPT Dune: Part Three	15.5% ↑ +7.0%	—	$2.8K	Kalshi 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $2.8K
DI Digger	6.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$1.3K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $1.3K
WHN Wild Horse Nine	6.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$33	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $33
PHM Project Hail Mary	4.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $1.1K
FJ Fjord	2.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$14	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $14
BE Behemoth	1.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$113	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $113
TAO The Adventures of Cliff Booth	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$2.7K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $2.7K
1F 1949 / Fatherland	0.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
AOA All of a Sudden	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
AR Artificial	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
AD Avengers: Doomsday	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$214	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $214
CTH Cry to Heaven	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
DD Disclosure Day	0.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1
ILB I Love Boosters	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
IN Ink	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JO Josephine	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$1	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1
MI Michael	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$2	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2
NTM Narnia: The Magician's Nephew	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
SAS Sense and Sensibility	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TDO The Death of Robin Hood	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TD The Drama	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TES The Entertainment System Is Down	0.5% ↓ -0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TSR The Social Reckoning	0.5% ↓ -7.5%	—	$14	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $14
TI Tie	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
WE Werwulf	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
TC Tom Cruise	36.5% ↑ +12.0%	—	$218	Kalshi 36.5% 36–37¢ Vol $218
AS Andrew Scott	11.5% ↑ +8.5%	—	$210	Kalshi 11.5% 10–13¢ Vol $210
JM John Malkovich	6.5% ↓ -17.5%	—	$64	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $64
BP Brad Pitt	1.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$956	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $956
JOC Josh O'Connor	1.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$67	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $67
SS Sebastian Stan	1.5% ↓ -3.0%	—	$67	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $67
AD Adam Driver	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
CT Channing Tatum	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
CM Charles Melton	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
KR Keanu Reeves	0.5% ↓ -2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
CN Christopher Nolan	67.0% ↑ +34.0%	—	$308	Kalshi 67.0% 66–68¢ Vol $308
MM Martin McDonagh	6.5% ↓ -12.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $0
DF David Fincher	3.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $0
PLC Phil Lord & Christopher Miller	2.0% ↓ -2.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 2.0% 0–4¢ Vol $0
AH Andrew Haigh	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
DB Danny Boyle	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JC Joel Coen	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
NHJ Na Hong-jin	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
SS Steven Spielberg	0.5% ↓ -6.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% ↓ -1.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi
RR Renate Reinsve	15.5% ↓ -7.0%	—	$45	Kalshi 15.5% 14–17¢ Vol $45
SH Sandra Hüller	9.0% ↓ -7.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 9.0% 7–11¢ Vol $0
CE Cynthia Erivo	4.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 4.5% 2–7¢ Vol $0
PC Penélope Cruz	3.0% ↓ -3.0%	—	$1.4K	Kalshi 3.0% 1–5¢ Vol $1.4K
SJ Scarlett Johansson	2.5% ↓ -3.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 2.5% 1–4¢ Vol $0
DJ Dakota Johnson	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
JC Joan Collins	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
KD Kirsten Dunst	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
NP Natalie Portman	0.5% ↓ -5.5%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0
TI Tie	0.5% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0

2027 Oscars Odds: Best Picture, Actor, Actress & Director

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