Election Betting Sites 2026: Best Prediction Apps & How to Trade

Election betting sites in the US are not sportsbooks. No state allows a licensed sportsbook to take wagers on elections, and any site offering election odds as a traditional bet is operating outside US regulation.

The legal way to trade the 2026 midterms is through a prediction market. This is a federally regulated exchange where you buy and sell Yes/No contracts on who wins.

From presidential races to control of Congress, election prediction markets offer a real-time look at how traders see the political landscape unfolding. With more platforms offering election contracts, there’s more to compare than simply who’s leading the races.

Best election betting sites and apps

Nine US prediction market platforms now list contracts tied to elections or political events, but their election coverage, trading fees, state availability and underlying exchanges differ widely. The table ranks the top five for election trading; FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions and OG Predictions follow below.

State availability is as each app’s terms list it, verified October 10, 2026. A state being open for the app doesn’t guarantee every election contract is listed there; see the legal section below.

Kalshi

Best for: the deepest US election market list.

Kalshi has an extensive election-market lineup covering presidential elections, congressional control, Senate and House races, gubernatorial elections, primaries, and international contests. It is the only exchange that prices all 35 of this cycle’s Senate races individually.

Its dedicated midterms hub brings together individual races and broader congressional outcomes. Traders can explore markets on which party controls each chamber, the number of seats a party wins, and the results of individual contests. Kalshi also offers more specialized contracts involving electoral margins and combinations of election outcomes.

One quirk worth knowing: Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract. Its Senate-control price is built from two balance-of-power contracts that settle in February 2027, so it isn’t a like-for-like match with Polymarket’s single contract.

Current offer: Eligible new users can trade $10 and receive $25 using promo code RATE.

Pros

• Extensive election coverage, including every Senate race and congressional control
• Dedicated election and midterm market hubs
• Detailed contract rules, in-house dispute review, and multiple order types

Cons

• Fee calculations vary with contract prices and order types
• Not available in Michigan or Nevada
• Specialized election contracts can be more complex than straightforward winner markets

Polymarket US

Best for: price-shopping against Kalshi, and international elections.

Polymarket US gives election traders access to a growing selection of political contracts through its CFTC-regulated US exchange, QCX. Its politics category includes presidential elections, party nominations, congressional control, individual Senate races, gubernatorial contests, and international elections.

That variety makes it possible to follow both broad political outcomes and individual races from one platform. Traders can also compare different contracts tied to the same election, such as a party winning control of Congress versus a particular candidate winning a Senate seat.

It’s important to distinguish Polymarket US from the company’s international platform, Polymarket.com. They are separate products with different access requirements, market offerings and resolution processes, and the international exchange isn’t available to US residents.

Current offer: Eligible new users can deposit $10 and receive a $25 trading bonus using promo code RATE.

Pros

• Election contracts spanning national, state, and international contests
• Multiple ways to follow the same election cycle, including party control and individual races
• Competitive fee structure with potential maker rebates

Cons

• Market depth and liquidity vary across individual contracts
• The US platform’s selection and features differ from those of international Polymarket
• Not available in Nevada

Underdog Predict

Best for: Underdog DFS users who want a few political markets in the same app.

Underdog Predict is built into the Underdog app and runs on Crypto.com’s CDNA exchange, with some markets powered by Kalshi’s exchange infrastructure. It is a sports-first product: game winners, spreads, totals and futures across eight sports. Political markets sit in the app’s Culture tab alongside entertainment awards, weather and Bitcoin contracts, and the election selection is thin compared with Kalshi or Polymarket US.

The trading model is simpler than an order-book exchange. There are no limit orders; every trade fills at the live market price, and you can cash out before an event ends from the Track tab. Fees are a flat $0.01 per contract per side, with exchange and regulatory fees passed through separately.

Underdog acquired the Aristotle Exchange DCM and DCO in March 2026, which gives it the regulatory pieces to list and clear its own contracts, but it hasn’t announced when it will move off CDNA.

Current offer: Eligible new users can play $5 in entries and receive $50 in bonus entries using promo code DEFI. The minimum deposit is $1.

Pros

• Lowest minimum deposit of any platform here
• Flat, predictable per-contract fee
• Clean interface and early cash-out

Cons

• Election coverage is limited; this is not where you’ll find individual Senate races
• Available in only 31 states and DC; not in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio or Michigan
• No limit orders, so you can’t set your own price

Gemini Predictions

Best for: traders who already hold a Gemini crypto account.

Gemini Predictions offers election and political contracts through its broader cryptocurrency and event-contract trading platform. Its markets cover congressional control, individual Senate races, gubernatorial elections, presidential contests, and international politics.

Dedicated categories make it easy to browse different types of political contracts, from major national elections to state-level races. Gemini Predictions is integrated into the broader Gemini platform, with separate maker and taker trading fees.

Current offer: Gemini offers up to $100 in promotional cash for qualifying professional football trades. This is a sports-specific promotion, not an election-trading bonus.

Pros

• Extensive election coverage, including congressional control and individual state races
• Dedicated categories for browsing US and international political markets
• Low maker fees reward traders who post limit orders

Cons

• Trading fees vary between maker and taker orders
• Current promotional offer is limited to qualifying football trades
• Unavailable in eight states, the most restrictive footprint of the top five

ProphetX

Best for: traders who want to post their own price, and who trade sports as well as politics.

ProphetX is a peer-to-peer exchange that runs its own CFTC-registered designated contract market and clearinghouse, approved in June 2026. It is a sports-first platform, with the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college sports, soccer and more, but its public lobby also lists political markets. Check the live market list before assuming a particular election contract is available.

What sets it apart is the order book. You can take the best available price with a market order, post your own price with a limit order and wait for a match, or request a quote on a multi-leg combo. Fees are 2% of net gains per market on straight contracts, and a losing position pays no fee.

Current offer: Eligible new users can trade $50 at prices of $0.80 or below and receive $75 in Incentive Funds, paid in three $25 installments, using promo code RATE.

Pros

• Full order book with limit orders and visible depth
• No fee on losing positions
• Web, iOS and Android

Cons

• Election selection is limited and can change; sports dominate the lobby
• Bonus arrives in installments with a trade-through requirement
• Thin liquidity on niche markets

FanDuel Predicts

Best for: FanDuel users in states without a FanDuel sportsbook.

FanDuel Predicts is a standalone prediction market app developed in partnership with CME Group, offering contracts on elections, sports, financial markets, and other real-world events. It is available in all 50 states and DC, the widest footprint of any app here.

Its political markets include the major US election categories, with contracts covering congressional control, individual Senate and gubernatorial races, and presidential elections. This gives election traders access to both near-term races and longer-term political outcomes within the same app.

FanDuel Predicts is separate from FanDuel Sportsbook, with exchange-based contract pricing rather than traditional sportsbook odds. Its sports contracts are subject to additional geographic restrictions that do not necessarily apply to election markets.

Current offer: Eligible new users can trade $5 and receive $100 in promotional bonuses, no code required. Full terms are on our FanDuel Predicts promo page.

Pros

• Coverage of major US election markets, including congressional and presidential outcomes
• Available in every state and DC
• Familiar app experience for existing FanDuel users

Cons

• App-only trading, with no equivalent web-based trading interface
• The 2% fee on potential payout is the highest percentage-based fee of the major platforms
• Contract availability and geographic eligibility vary by market category

DraftKings Predictions

Best for: existing DraftKings users who want web access.

DraftKings Predictions offers election and political event contracts through a standalone trading platform, separate from DraftKings Sportsbook. Its dedicated 2026 midterms section provides access to congressional election markets, while the broader politics catalog covers gubernatorial races, US presidential elections, and international politics.

Traders can explore these categories through the DraftKings Predictions website as well as the app. DraftKings charges transaction fees when trading prediction market contracts, with additional exchange fees potentially applying.

Current offer: Eligible new users can trade $5 or more and receive $150 in promotional bonuses, no code required. Full terms are on our DraftKings Predictions promo page.

Pros

• Dedicated 2026 midterms section and broader political market categories
• Coverage spanning congressional, gubernatorial, presidential, and international politics
• Web-based trading access alongside its app

Cons

• Per-contract fees can reduce returns, particularly on smaller trades
• Not available in Maine or New Hampshire
• Contract-specific settlement rules require attention, especially for longer-term election markets

OG Predictions

Best for: traders who want social features and leaderboards.

OG Predictions is Crypto.com’s standalone prediction market app. Although it launched with a strong sports focus, its catalog has expanded to include politics, economics, cryptocurrency, and entertainment. It is available in all 50 states and DC.

Its politics section includes presidential election contracts, party-based presidential outcomes, and control of the US House of Representatives. These give election traders ways to follow both candidate-specific and broader party outcomes, though Senate control was not in its feed when we last checked.

OG also emphasizes social features, including leaderboards and community engagement, which distinguish its experience from more conventional exchange interfaces.

Current offer: Eligible new users can trade $10 and receive $10 after signing up. Full terms are on our OG promo code page.

Pros

• Presidential and House election markets
• Political contracts alongside sports, finance, and other categories
• Social and community-oriented trading features

Cons

• Election-market breadth varies by contest
• Trading costs depend on the market and order type
• Low liquidity on less-popular contracts can lead to wider bid-ask spreads

Other platforms you’ll see on election betting lists

Several other names appear on competitor rankings but are weak or unsuitable choices for election trading right now:

• Robinhood routes its event contracts through Kalshi’s exchange and offered presidential contracts in 2024, but its current catalog is limited to sports and economics; our Robinhood referral code page has the details
• Crypto.com runs the CDNA exchange that powers Underdog Predict and Fanatics Markets; its own app focuses on sports, with political markets offered through OG, and new users can claim $50 with the Crypto.com promo code DEFI
• PredictIt is a politics-only market that operated for years under a CFTC no-action letter and has since received approval to operate as a fully regulated exchange; it remains browser-only with higher fees and lower position limits than the platforms above

How we compare election prediction market platforms

Our ranking considers more than sign-up bonuses or the number of markets advertised. For election trading, the most important differences often emerge when comparing specific contracts. We evaluate platforms using five primary considerations:

• Election market selection: coverage of presidential elections, congressional control, individual races, primaries, and international contests
• Liquidity: available orders, trading activity, and the ability to enter or exit a position at a reasonable price
• Trading costs: transaction fees, bid-ask spreads, and any relevant funding or withdrawal charges
• Election-specific features: market organization, contract rules, dispute handling, price histories, and tools for following related races
• Usability and availability: account access, trading interface, order controls, and geographic or contract-level restrictions

A platform with an extensive overall catalog may offer limited coverage of a particular election. Even when two exchanges list the same outcome, differences in available liquidity, execution prices, trading fees, and settlement rules can affect the trading experience and potential returns.

Our comparison emphasizes the markets traders can actually access and the costs and conditions attached to those contracts, rather than simply counting available markets or comparing promotional offers.

How election prediction markets work

Betting on elections through a prediction market means buying and selling contracts tied to the outcome of a political contest. It’s not wagering in the traditional sense, like placing a bet at a sportsbook.

Participants trade event contracts whose prices change as buyers and sellers react to new information.

Most election contracts have a Yes/No structure, with prices ranging from $0.01 to $0.99 and a winning contract paying $1 at settlement. A contract trading at 60 cents suggests an implied probability of approximately 60% that the outcome will occur.

Take a real one. On October 17, 2026, Kalshi’s contract on James Talarico winning the Texas Senate race was priced at 62¢ for Yes:

• Buy price: $0.62 per Yes contract
• Investment: $62 for 100 contracts
• Payout if Talarico wins: $100
• Profit if correct: $38 before trading fees
• Loss if incorrect: $62, plus applicable fees

Traders don’t necessarily have to wait for the election to finish. The same day, the Ohio special Senate contract on Sherrod Brown had moved from 60¢ to 65¢ over seven days; anyone who bought 100 contracts at 60¢ could have sold for $65, a $5 gain before fees, without waiting for November. An early sale depends on available buyers and the price they’re willing to pay.

The price you see isn’t always the price you’ll get. A contract’s bid is the highest price a buyer is offering, while the ask is the lowest price a seller will accept. The difference, known as the bid-ask spread, can affect what you pay to enter a trade or receive when selling early.

Settlement rules matter just as much. An election-night projection, an official vote count, and final certification aren’t necessarily interchangeable. Each contract specifies what determines the winning outcome, which sources are used, and when settlement occurs. Those details can make a significant difference in closely contested elections, recounts, or disputed results.

What election markets can you trade?

Election prediction markets cover much more than who wins the White House. Traders can follow control of Congress, individual Senate and House races, party nominations, gubernatorial contests, and elections in other countries.

The exact selection varies by platform and election cycle. Some markets focus on a straightforward winner, while others involve seat totals, margins of victory, or combinations of outcomes.

Presidential election markets

Presidential elections are among the most popular prediction market categories. Contracts typically focus on which candidate or political party will win the presidency, with markets often opening well before Election Day.

For example, Polymarket US lists contracts for the winner of the 2028 US presidential election, along with a separate market for the winning party.

Other presidential contracts may cover Electoral College outcomes, popular-vote margins, or the number of states won by a candidate.

Congressional elections and control of Congress

Congressional prediction markets include individual Senate and House races as well as broader questions about which party will control each chamber.

The 2026 midterm elections provide several examples:

• Senate control: Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate?
• House control: Which party will control the House of Representatives? See the House control odds
• Individual races: Who will win a particular Senate or House seat? See the Senate race odds
• Balance of power: Which combination of parties will control the House and Senate? See the balance of power odds
• Seat totals: How many seats will a party hold after the election?

These markets can provide different perspectives on the same election cycle. A contract on an individual Senate race measures expectations for that contest, while a Senate-control market reflects the combined implications of multiple races.

Follow current contracts, prices, and trading activity in DeFi Rate’s 2026 midterm election odds tracker.

State and local elections

State and local election markets extend beyond national politics, covering outcomes such as gubernatorial races, state legislative control, and mayoral elections where contracts are available.

These markets allow traders to focus on individual states and cities, where local issues, candidate developments, and regional political dynamics can shape expectations differently from national election trends.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral runoff shows how big a city race can get. More than $100 million has traded on Kalshi’s winner market alone, and all three of Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini list contracts on the November 3 vote between incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman. On October 17, Raman was the favorite at 55% on average, but the venues disagreed: a Raman Yes contract cost 53¢ on Kalshi, 53.7¢ on Polymarket and 60¢ on Gemini. The race also shows how fast local markets can turn. Raman replaced Bass as the favorite on September 23, jumping from 43.5% to 57.5% in a single day after a Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll put her 11 points ahead. DeFi Rate’s Los Angeles mayor odds page tracks all three venues.

Market availability can be uneven. High-profile statewide contests may attract multiple contracts and substantial trading activity, while smaller local races may have limited coverage or no listed market at all.

Primaries and party nominations

Prediction markets don’t require a general election to generate trading interest. Party primaries and nomination contests can produce their own markets months or years before voters choose the eventual officeholder.

Kalshi, for example, lists separate markets for the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. Traders may also find contracts covering Senate and gubernatorial primaries, nomination deadlines, or whether a particular candidate will enter a race.

These contracts are distinct from general-election winner markets. A candidate can win a party nomination without winning the eventual election, so traders need to pay attention to the precise outcome being traded.

International elections

Election prediction markets extend beyond the United States, with contracts covering presidential, parliamentary, and other major elections around the world.

Examples listed on Polymarket US include Brazil’s 2026 presidential election and the identity of Israel’s prime minister following its next election.

International markets can involve different electoral systems, including parliamentary coalitions, runoff elections, and leadership selections that don’t correspond directly to a nationwide popular vote.

That makes the contract rules especially important. A market asking who becomes prime minister may resolve differently from one asking which party wins the most parliamentary seats.

For a broader view of available contracts, DeFi Rate’s election odds tracker brings together election markets and trading activity across multiple platforms.

How to compare election prediction market odds

The same election outcome can trade at different prices across prediction market platforms. Comparing those prices can help traders identify differences in potential payouts, fees, and available liquidity.

Start by making sure the contracts actually measure the same outcome. A market on which party wins the Senate may look similar to one covering the balance of power in both chambers, but the underlying contracts and settlement rules can differ.

Next, compare the price you can actually trade at, not just the percentage displayed on a market page. A few factors matter:

• Buy and sell prices: the ask is what a buyer currently pays, while the bid is what a seller can receive; the difference is the spread
• Trading fees: platforms use different fee structures, which can affect the total cost and potential profit
• Liquidity: a displayed price may only be available for a small number of contracts, and larger orders can execute at less favorable prices
• Contract rules: resolution dates, treatment of recounts, and definitions of the winning outcome may differ
• Quote freshness: a recent trade or an outdated quote isn’t necessarily a price available right now

Election odds comparison example

Here is a live example. On October 17, 2026, the contract on Democrats winning Senate control was quoted at different prices on the two largest exchanges:

Buying on Kalshi would produce a larger potential profit, but only if the contracts settle on identical terms and both orders fill at the quoted prices. In this case they don’t quite match: Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so its price is built from two balance-of-power contracts that settle in February 2027, and the Kalshi order pays two legs of fees. The same morning, a Republican sweep of both chambers cost 11¢ on Kalshi and 9¢ on Polymarket, a 2-cent gap that is about 20% of the price. Long shots are often priced higher on one venue than another; fees and available liquidity can narrow or eliminate the advantage.

Prices move constantly. The 2026 midterms hub above shows current quotes for every chamber-control contract and all 35 Senate races, with each venue’s price side by side.

Election prediction markets vs. election polls

Election polls and prediction markets both offer information about political contests, but they measure different things.

A traditional election poll asks a sample of people about their voting intentions, candidate preferences, or views on political issues. A prediction market reflects prices established by traders buying and selling contracts on possible outcomes.

The distinction matters. A candidate polling at 48% does not necessarily have a 48% chance of winning. Likewise, a candidate trading at 60 cents on a winner market does not mean that candidate is expected to receive 60% of the vote.

Why election polls and market odds differ

An election can be close in the polls without being equally uncertain in the market.

For example, a candidate might hold a narrow but consistent polling lead across several surveys. Traders could assign that candidate a higher probability of winning than the polling margin alone suggests, based on the electoral system, historical voting patterns, or expectations about how the remaining campaign will unfold.

Conversely, a close race with substantial uncertainty could produce market prices near 50 cents even when one candidate leads in recent polls.

Neither indicator is infallible. Polls can suffer from sampling errors, nonresponse bias, and inaccurate turnout assumptions. Prediction markets can be affected by thin liquidity, concentrated trading activity, and participants reacting to the same incomplete information.

Research comparing their forecasting performance has produced differing results depending on the elections, periods, and methods examined. It’s more useful to treat polls and market prices as complementary sources of information than to assume one always predicts election outcomes more accurately.

What moves election prediction market odds?

Election prediction market prices can change throughout a campaign as traders reassess the likelihood of different outcomes. Some movements follow major political developments, while others reflect changes in trading activity or liquidity. Common drivers include:

• Polling developments: new surveys, changes in polling averages, or unexpected results in competitive states and districts
• Campaign events: debates, candidate announcements, endorsements, withdrawals, and major campaign developments
• Political and economic developments: economic reports, legislative decisions, and policy changes can alter expectations about the broader political environment
• Election results: primary outcomes, special elections, and early results from related contests can influence expectations elsewhere
• Trading activity: large orders, shifting sentiment, and changes in available liquidity can move prices even without a major news event
• News coverage and headlines: candidate interviews, breaking stories, and emerging campaign narratives can prompt traders to reassess individual races; some headlines move prices immediately, while others have little lasting effect

Market reactions can also differ across related contracts. A development affecting one competitive Senate race might move that candidate’s winner market more sharply than the broader Senate-control market, which incorporates expectations for numerous contests.

It’s also important to distinguish a meaningful shift in expectations from a temporary price movement. In a thinly traded market, a relatively small order may move the displayed probability considerably.

Looking at price history, trading activity, bid-ask spreads, and related markets can provide context for a sudden change.

Concentration matters too. An analysis of more than 21,000 markets on the 2026 congressional midterms across Kalshi and both Polymarket platforms, reported by Reuters in October 2026, found that the top 1% of Polymarket wallets by congressional trading volume accounted for roughly 70% of all congressional volume this cycle. When a handful of large traders dominate a market, a single position change can move the displayed probability more than any poll.

Is betting on elections legal in the US?

Election prediction markets are available to US traders through federally regulated exchanges, but their legal status remains contested in some jurisdictions. Access depends on the platform, the trader’s location, and the particular contracts being offered.

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket US operate under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates derivatives markets. Their election contracts are treated as financial event contracts rather than conventional sportsbook wagers.

However, federal oversight does not mean every platform or election contract is available in every state. Some states prohibit election wagering under their own laws, and regulators have challenged whether federal commodities rules override those restrictions.

Where are election prediction markets legal?

Election prediction markets are available across most of the US, but the map differs by app. As of October 10, 2026, each platform’s own terms exclude the following states:

• Kalshi: Michigan and Nevada
• Polymarket US: Nevada
• Gemini Predictions: Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Ohio
• DraftKings Predictions: Maine and New Hampshire
• Underdog Predict: available in only 31 states and DC, excluding New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan among others
• ProphetX: Nevada
• FanDuel Predicts and OG Predictions: available in all 50 states and DC

An app being open in your state doesn’t mean every election contract is listed there. Courts and regulators can restrict individual categories: a Washington court, for example, ordered Kalshi to geofence political and election contracts for Washington users in 2026 even though the app itself remained available in the state.

Likewise, a platform’s permission to offer sports or financial contracts does not automatically establish the availability of election contracts. For the latest platform restrictions and state-specific information, consult DeFi Rate’s legal states directory.

Why are election prediction markets facing legal challenges?

Election contracts have the clearest federal footing of any event contract, and 2026 has still been the busiest year of litigation the industry has seen. The CFTC disapproved Kalshi’s congressional-control contracts in 2023; a federal court vacated that decision in 2024, and the agency’s appeal was dismissed in 2025. That sequence is why Kalshi, Polymarket US and Gemini can list midterm markets today.

The fight has since moved to the states, and most of it is about sports contracts rather than elections. Operators argue that contracts listed on CFTC-regulated exchanges fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction; state regulators contend they are wagers subject to state gambling law. In April 2026 the CFTC and Justice Department sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois to defend that federal authority. On August 28, 2026, the Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi’s sports contracts in Nevada, and Robinhood Derivatives asked the Supreme Court to review that decision on September 9. In September alone, Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders to nine exchanges, Missouri’s attorney general sent its own, and Underdog filed federal suits against Massachusetts, New Mexico, Ohio, Washington and Wisconsin, with Tennessee becoming the seventh state it has sued in October.

Election markets are not untouched. A Washington court ordered Kalshi to geofence political and election contracts for Washington users, the CFTC chair has warned that attempts to move political markets artificially could bring manipulation cases, and the Senate has barred senators and staff from trading them. Kalshi has suspended candidates for trading on their own races. Courts have reached differing conclusions on the core preemption question, and a Supreme Court ruling, if the justices take the Nevada case, would be the first to settle it nationally.

The legal landscape continues to evolve as courts issue decisions, regulators act, and platforms adjust their offerings. DeFi Rate’s prediction market legal tracker follows the latest cases and regulatory developments.

How election prediction markets settle

Election contracts settle according to the rules established for each market. Those rules determine what constitutes a winning outcome, which sources are used to verify the result, and when the platform can finalize settlement.

For a straightforward winner contract, the winning side generally pays $1 per contract, while the losing side expires worthless. However, identifying the winning outcome can take longer than election-night coverage suggests.

Election-night projections vs. official results

News organizations frequently project election winners before all ballots have been counted. Those projections can influence market prices, but they do not necessarily trigger settlement.

A contract may require an official election result, certification by an election authority, or another specifically identified source before it can resolve.

For example, a Senate winner market might remain unsettled after a major news network projects a winner if the contract’s rules require confirmation from an election authority.

Other contracts may use different criteria. A market on control of Congress could depend on which party holds a majority at a specified future date rather than simply which party appears to have won the most seats on election night.

The contract’s published rules, not the headline or displayed market title alone, determine the outcome.

What happens if an election is contested?

Recounts, legal challenges, delayed vote counts, and certification disputes can complicate settlement.

If a race is close, the exchange may need to wait for the specified verification source or another condition established in the contract rules. That can delay payouts even when the likely winner appears clear.

Traders should pay particular attention to:

• Resolution criteria: the precise event or condition that determines whether a contract wins
• Verification sources: the official authority, publication, or other source designated to confirm the outcome
• Determination dates: when the platform expects to assess the result, including any specified deadlines
• Exceptional circumstances: how the rules address recounts, cancellations, disputed results, or other complications

Kalshi, for example, publishes market-specific rules identifying the conditions required for a Yes outcome and the sources used to verify it. The exchange notes that settlement can take longer when official information is delayed.

How a disputed result gets decided also differs by exchange, and it matters most in exactly the close races where disputes happen. Kalshi resolves challenges in-house through its outcome review and appeals process, using the official sources named in the contract. Polymarket’s international platform works differently: a trader proposes an outcome by posting a bond, anyone can dispute it within a challenge window, and unresolved disputes go to a vote of UMA token holders, a process that has produced several controversial settlements. Polymarket US is a separate, CFTC-registered exchange with its own rulebook, so check the resolution section of the specific contract rather than assuming either process applies.

The practical takeaway is simple: A projected election winner and a settled prediction market contract are not necessarily the same thing. Review the resolution rules before trading, particularly for close races, congressional-control markets, and contracts tied to who holds office on a future date.

How to start betting on elections through prediction markets

Getting started with election prediction markets involves choosing an eligible platform, funding an account, and selecting a contract tied to an election outcome. The process varies slightly by operator, but the basic steps are similar.