Los Angeles Mayoral Race OddsNithya Raman is the clear favorite at 62%

As of Sept. 27, 2026, at 4:13 p.m. PT, Nithya Raman still leads the Los Angeles mayoral market on Polymarket. The platform displayed a 57% chance for Raman and 44% for Mayor Karen Bass, with Raman Yes offered at 56.8¢ and Bass Yes at 44¢. On Sept. 25, the displayed Yes offers were about 57.5¢ and 43.5¢, respectively: Raman remains in front, but those snapshots do not show a new reversal. Kalshi reported on Sept. 23 that Raman had overtaken Bass there, 58% to 42%; a current Kalshi quote has not been independently confirmed for this update.

The clearest recent political development remains the Sept. 15–20 Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll: Raman had 39% support among likely voters, Bass 28%, and 33% were undecided. The poll and the market favor the same candidate, but poll support is not an election-win probability. Campaign finance reports described Sept. 25 put the candidates roughly level in total fundraising; they do not establish that fundraising moved either contract.

The question for traders is whether Bass can win over voters who backed Spencer Pratt in June. The Berkeley survey found 63% of those voters had not chosen a runoff candidate. Los Angeles County’s vote by mail guidance says ballot mailing starts no later than 29 days before the Nov. 3 election. Another runoff poll showing where those undecided voters are going would be more informative than a small quote change.

What does today’s price cover?

The Polymarket Los Angeles mayoral election contract concerns who wins the 2026 election, not who advanced from the June primary. At this Sept. 27 check, buying Raman Yes at the displayed 56.8¢ offer would be a trade on Raman winning the election; the live offer can change. Check the bid and ask, available orders and fees before trading, and read each platform’s outcome rules before comparing its prices.

Why Raman leads, and what could change

Raman’s market lead survived the two days after the Sept. 25 snapshot. The Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll gave her an 11-point lead among likely voters, while the Sept. 25 campaign finance report showed the finalists roughly even in total fundraising. Neither finding establishes why traders placed their orders. The large undecided share, especially among former Pratt voters, is the opening Bass still has.

Watch for a new likely-voter poll that identifies its field dates and methodology, particularly one that measures former Pratt voters. Ballot mailing ahead of the Nov. 3 runoff is the next scheduled election milestone; how those voters break matters to a contract on the eventual mayor. No later poll or vote result is being asserted here.

How to read a move

At 4:13 p.m. PT on Sept. 27, Polymarket displayed a Raman Yes offer of 56.8¢ and a Bass Yes offer of 44¢. Compare a later quote with its own timestamp and the date of any new poll before attributing a move to campaign news.

• Outcome: Does the contract pay on the November election winner?
• Evidence: Is there a newly reported poll or documented campaign development?
• Trading: What are the current bid and ask and available order sizes?
• Costs: What fees affect the entry or exit price?

The contest behind the prices

Bass is defending her record as mayor against Raman, a sitting City Council member. The June primary narrowed the field to these two; the September Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times survey suggests Raman is ahead among likely voters but leaves a third undecided. That combination helps explain why a market lead is not the same thing as a settled election. Housing, homelessness and city services give the campaigns concrete ground on which to argue for the remaining votes; a future poll could test whether those arguments have changed support.

A contract on the primary is a different question from a contract on the eventual mayor. Before comparing a Kalshi quote with Polymarket’s, read both named outcomes and rules. The presence of both feeds on this page does not establish that the contracts settle identically.

Can you trade on the Los Angeles mayoral election?

Seeing a Bass or Raman price does not mean you can trade it. Access depends on the platform, the contract and your location; check current account rules and restrictions first.

You can lose money even if the race seems clear. Prices can fall, an exit trade may be costly or unavailable, and a disputed result can delay settlement. Only trade where permitted and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Who decides the winner?

Los Angeles voters choose the mayor in the Nov. 3 runoff. Polymarket’s election market rules specify the election winner, with a consensus of credible reporting as the primary resolution source and official City of Los Angeles information if the result is ambiguous. Los Angeles County conducts most city election functions, according to the City Clerk’s Election Division. Kalshi’s market-specific resolution source and timing have not been independently confirmed for this update; do not assume they match Polymarket’s.

What to watch next

As of Sept. 27, Raman still leads the checked Polymarket market, and the Sept. 15–20 poll still leaves a third of likely voters undecided. County election guidance sets ballot mailing no later than 29 days before Nov. 3. Watch for a later runoff poll measuring the former Pratt voters, then the Nov. 3 vote and reported results. The live board may update before this dated account does.