Patriots vs. DolphinsWeek 8 Predictions, Picks and Odds
New England visits Miami after the Dolphins' first win. Compare live odds, spread and total with our AFC East matchup outlook.
About 3 in 4 (−311)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $131 if correct, before fees.
About 1 in 4 (+311)
Prices to buy now. $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $412 if correct, before fees.
Kalshi's lines closest to a coin flip
Patriots vs. Dolphins moneyline odds
Prices to buy each team. Tap a price to open Kalshi and Polymarket US.
| Team | Average | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England PatriotsAway · −311 | 76% $100 on Kalshi at the ask pays $131 | Kalshi76¢ | Polymarket US76¢ | |
| Miami DolphinsHome · +311 | 24% $100 on Polymarket US at the ask pays $412 | Kalshi25¢ | Polymarket US24.3¢ |
Best prices to buy: New England at 76¢ on Kalshi and Polymarket US; Miami at 24.3¢ on Polymarket US. Buying both costs $1.002 for a $1 payout, so there's no arbitrage. Traded in the past 24 hours: $10K on Kalshi and $1K on Polymarket US.
Kalshi: OpenPolymarket US: Open Average is the mean of each venue's price for the outcome, where it lists one: the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask; Polymarket US's displayed price. Source: Kalshi / Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 27, 5:21 PM and 5:26 PM ET.
Over the past week on Kalshi, New England lost 1 point, to 76%.
Source: Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate, Oct 20 to Oct 26 (UTC days). A day without a close is left out.
Patriots vs. Dolphins spread and over/under
Kalshi and Polymarket US price a ladder of margins and totals: tap a price to buy that line. The line closest to a coin flip is tagged.
All 27 spread lines
All 19 total lines
Open Chance is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Polymarket US lists one team’s spread both ways: an underdog line there is bought as No on the favorite’s line. Source: Kalshi and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed between Oct 27, 4:18 PM and 5:26 PM ET.
Patriots vs. Dolphins team totals
Polymarket US prices how many points each team scores: tap a price to buy that line. The line closest to a coin flip is tagged.
All 17 team total lines
All 17 team total lines
Open Chance is the midpoint of Polymarket US's bid and ask. Fair odds are that chance as American odds, before fees. Source: Polymarket US via DeFi Rate, observed Oct 27, 5:27 PM ET.
The New England Patriots visit the Miami Dolphins at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 1, at Hard Rock Stadium, with coverage on CBS.
Miami earned its first win, 28-25 at the Jets, while New England lost 30-24 at Chicago on Thursday night. The Patriots have extra preparation time, but Miami's latest result gives the home underdog a stronger recent performance to build on. Compare live win probabilities, spread and full-game total above, then the season trends and latest completed-game stats below.
Patriots vs Dolphins odds and info
Date & Time: Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, at 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Moneyline: Patriots 76.5%, Dolphins 23.5%
Spread: Patriots -7.5 at 46.5%, Dolphins +7.5 at 53.5%
Over/Under: 44.5 points, Over 50.5%, Under 49.5%
Records: Patriots 4-3, Dolphins 1-5
Kalshi snapshot checked Oct. 27, 2026, at 1:18 p.m. ET. Percentages are bid/ask midpoints, not prices to buy. Spread and total use the valid two-sided half-point contract nearest a 50% midpoint, with volume breaking ties. Prices can change; compare live buy prices above. Team records and season trends cover completed regular-season games through Week 7.
Picks & predictions
Moneyline: Kalshi's dated snapshot gives New England a 76.5% win probability and Miami 23.5%. The Patriots are favored to win, but that does not mean they will cover the spread.
Against the Spread: New England is 3-3-1 against the spread, including 2-1 as a favorite and 1-2-1 in true road games. Miami is 3-3 ATS, all as an underdog, and 1-1 at home. The Patriots' stronger straight-up record has not translated into a consistent road cover; Miami covered in its three-point win at the Jets. At the selected 7.5-point line, the dated snapshot gives New England a 46.5% chance to cover and Miami a 53.5% chance to stay within seven points or win.
Over/Under: New England games are 4-3 to the over; Miami games are evenly split at 3-3. Both latest games went over their closing totals: Patriots-Bears finished with 54 combined points and Dolphins-Jets with 53. That supports an offensive counterpoint to Miami's earlier struggles, not an automatic over selection. The dated 44.5-point market gives Over a 50.5% probability and Under 49.5%, leaving little separation between the two outcomes.
Form: New England lost 30-24 at Chicago on Oct. 22, with Drake Maye passing for 321 yards and two touchdowns. Miami won 28-25 at the Jets on Oct. 25 behind Malik Willis' 208 passing yards and two touchdown passes. One improved Miami result does not erase its 1-5 record.
Eligible new users who register with the Kalshi promo code RATE can receive $55 in trading credit after $25 in qualifying trades within 90 days. New customers 18+; state restrictions and terms apply.
Patriots vs. Dolphins stats
Latest-game comparison through Week 7: Patriots at Chicago on Oct. 22, 2026, and Dolphins at the Jets on Oct. 25, 2026. Both were Week 7 games. These are single-game results, not season averages.
| Team stat | Patriots (Week 7) | Dolphins (Week 7) |
|---|---|---|
| Latest-game points scored | 24 | 28 |
| Latest-game points allowed | 30 | 25 |
| QB passing yards | 321 | 208 |
| QB passing TDs / INTs | 2 / 1 | 2 / 0 |
Stat leaders: Drake Maye passed for 321 yards in New England's latest game; Malik Willis passed for 208 yards in Miami's latest game. Quarterback yards are gross passing yards before sack losses, not net team passing yards.
Sources: Patriots official NFL gamebook and Dolphins official NFL gamebook. Statistics checked Oct. 27, 2026; both teams through their Week 7 games.
How to trade Patriots vs. Dolphins odds
Compare the price for the same outcome and line across venues before buying. In a hypothetical trade, 100 Yes contracts at 60¢ cost $60 and pay $100 if Yes settles, a $40 profit before fees. This example is not a live quote for either team.
For the rest of the slate, compare our NFL Week 8 odds. Trading involves risk, and you can lose your entire position.
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