The 2026 World Cup group stage is starting to take shape. Türkiye is out after back-to-back defeats, the USA has booked its place in the Round of 32 as Group D winners, and the day’s results have already reshaped how prediction markets price the tournament.
Here’s how yesterday played out and where the markets are pricing today’s matchups across Kalshi and Polymarket.
World Cup day 9 recap: USA reaches the knockout stage
The USA won Group D after a 2-0 win over Australia in Seattle. Folarin Balogun, the star of Team USA’s 4-1 win against Paraguay on Matchday 1, fizzed a dangerous cross into the box that defender Cameron Burgess turned into his own net. Alex Freeman doubled the lead with a header just before half-time. The USMNT is through to the Round of 32 and will face a third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in San Francisco.
That result also moved the tournament markets. With a knockout berth secured, traders are now pricing how deep the run goes rather than just whether the USA advances. The title market remains a longshot — the USMNT is priced at 5.5% to win the World Cup on Kalshi and 7.9% on Polymarket US.
Türkiye was eliminated after a 1-0 loss to Paraguay. Across its two games, Türkiye managed a combined 62 attempts without a single goal — the most shots without scoring in any two-match span in World Cup history. Paraguay and Australia now meet on Matchday 3 to settle the Group D runner-up spot.
Elsewhere, Brazil beat Haiti 3-0 on two goals from Matheus Cunha and a strike from in-form winger Vinícius Júnior. Morocco is level with Brazil on four points atop Group C after a 1-0 win over Scotland.
Key volume numbers from yesterday’s matchups
| Matchup | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket Global |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs. Australia | $56,287,726 | $13,774,578 | $21,916,437 |
| Türkiye vs. Paraguay | $76,186,497 | $21,488,991 | $32,637,787 |
| Brazil vs. Haiti | $60,746,260 | $9,786,299 | $15,224,102 |
| Scotland vs. Morocco | $47,014,817 | $16,560,471 | $21,588,117 |
Source: DeFi Rate aggregation from first-party exchange data. Kalshi totals reflect displayed cumulative volume from Kalshi’s public API; Polymarket US totals reflect displayed cumulative market volume from Polymarket US public market endpoints; Polymarket Global totals reflect cumulative event volume from Polymarket’s Gamma public API.
Today’s World Cup odds: Four matches across Groups E and F
Four matches play out today. The Netherlands is the day’s headline favorite at 58% to beat Sweden in Houston, with Germany, Ecuador, and Japan also priced as favorites in their respective fixtures. The latest Kalshi and Polymarket prices for every match is below including moneyline and spread.
Netherlands vs. Sweden odds and predictions
Prediction markets give the Netherlands a 58% chance of beating Sweden in Houston this afternoon (1 p.m. ET), in a matchup between Liverpool teammates Virgil van Dijk and Alexander Isak.
The Netherlands will aim to bounce back after a 2-2 draw with Japan in its opener. Van Dijk and Crysencio Summerville both scored, but Japan capitalized on sloppy Dutch defending to equalize twice. Sweden arrives with momentum after thrashing Tunisia 5-1 on Matchday 1 — Brighton midfielder Yasin Ayari scored twice, with Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, and substitute Mattias Svanberg also on target. That win left Sweden top of Group E, two points clear of the Netherlands and Japan.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Netherlands) | 58% | 58% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 24% | 23% |
| Moneyline (Sweden) | 21% | 21% |
| Spread (Netherlands -1.5) | 34% | 33% |
| Spread (Sweden +1.5) | 68% | 67% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 59% | 60% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 42% | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 61% | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 40% | 38% |
| First Team to Score (Netherlands) | 66% | 63% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 12% | 7% |
| First Team to Score (Sweden) | 36% | 33% |
Markets give Sweden a 21% chance of the win, with the draw around 23% to 24%. Polymarket has both teams to score at 61%, which looks interesting given it has landed in each of Sweden’s last seven matches and in five of the Netherlands’ last seven. Van Dijk remains elite, but he could struggle to contain Isak — they train together daily for Liverpool, so Isak knows how to exploit his weaknesses. Over 2.5 goals sits at 59%.
Live odds: Netherlands World Cup
Germany vs. Ivory Coast odds and predictions
Germany opened with an emphatic 7-1 win over Curaçao, with Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz, and Jamal Musiala linking up well. The defense looked flimsy at times, but Germany’s attacking firepower overwhelmed Curaçao. Die Mannschaft faces Ivory Coast in Toronto this afternoon (4 p.m. ET).
Ivory Coast is level with Germany on three points after a 1-0 win over Ecuador. The Elephants were outplayed for stretches but defended doggedly, and substitute Amad Diallo slotted a late winner. Markets expect them to struggle here: Germany is priced at 66% on Kalshi and 65% on Polymarket. Both teams to score sits around 58% to 59%, as Ivory Coast has the pace to exploit Germany’s defensive lapses. Over 2.5 goals sits at 62%.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Germany) | 65% | 66% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 21% | 21% |
| Moneyline (Ivory Coast) | 16% | 16% |
| Spread (Germany -1.5) | 42% | 42% |
| Spread (Ivory Coast +1.5) | 59% | 58% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 62% | 62% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 38% | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 59% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 43% | 42% |
| First Team to Score (Germany) | 71% | 71% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 5% | 5% |
| First Team to Score (Ivory Coast) | 30% | 27% |
Live odds: Germany World Cup
Ecuador vs. Curaçao odds and predictions
Curaçao is the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup — an island roughly the size of New Orleans with a population of 158,000 and a thin player pool. It battled bravely against Germany but was outclassed in that 7-1 defeat.
Ecuador was unfortunate to lose to Ivory Coast, hitting the post and crossbar and missing several chances before Diallo’s late strike. La Tri should fare better against a technically limited Curaçao side in Kansas City tonight (8 p.m. ET). Markets offer 87% on Ecuador, with 10% on the draw and 5% on Curaçao. Ecuador to cover a 2.5-goal spread is priced at 44% on Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Ecuador) | 87% | 87% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 10% | 10% |
| Moneyline (Curaçao) | 5% | 5% |
| Spread (Ecuador -2.5) | 44% | 44% |
| Spread (Curaçao +2.5) | 57% | 56% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | — | 62% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | — | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 32% | 32% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 69% | 68% |
| First Team to Score (Ecuador) | 86% | 86% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 3% |
| First Team to Score (Curaçao) | 14% | 13% |
Live odds: Group E World Cup
Tunisia vs. Japan odds and predictions
Tunisia fired head coach Sabri Lamouchi after the 5-1 loss to Sweden — the earliest firing in World Cup history. Bottom of Group E, the Eagles of Carthage will be eliminated with a loss to Japan in Monterey today (12 a.m. ET).
Japan is buoyed by its 2-2 draw with the Netherlands. The Samurai Blue struggled with Dutch physicality but their technical quality earned a point. Japan is the favorite at 63%, with a Tunisia win at 15% and the draw at 24%. Markets expect a lower-scoring game: over 2.5 goals at 46%, under 2.5 at 55%.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Japan) | 63% | 64% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 24% | 24% |
| Moneyline (Tunisia) | 15% | 15% |
| Spread (Japan -1.5) | 36% | 36% |
| Spread (Tunisia +1.5) | 65% | 64% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 46% | 46% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 55% | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 44% | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 57% | 56% |
| First Team to Score (Japan) | 67% | 68% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 11% | 7% |
| First Team to Score (Tunisia) | 30% | 26% |
Live odds: Group F World Cup
Where to track every World Cup market
Group E sorts itself out today while Groups C and D head into decisive Matchday 3 fixtures. With the USA already through to the knockout stage and title pricing shifting after every result, the gap between Kalshi and Polymarket is only getting more interesting to watch.
For live World Cup pricing across both platforms and every current sign-up offer, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
