Latest news
NFL Backs Up New Jersey Officials in Request for Supreme Court Review
The National Football League has filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court of the United States in Kalshi v. Flaherty.
Derek Helling
DeFi Rate News Prediction market news and analysis
Our reporting on election markets, the CFTC and the courts, weekly volume, and the companies building prediction markets.
Report Says Gemini, Prophet X, WeBull Have Restricted Trading in Connecticut
Prediction market platforms have stopped allowing people in the state to trade on sports events to comply with demands from gambling regulators who said that activity is illegal.
Derek Helling
GOP Sends $5M to Defend South Carolina as Prediction Markets Still Heavily Favor Graham
Republicans are committing $5 million to defend Sen. Darline Graham’s seat as Annie Andrews closes the polling gap, but prediction markets still expect the GOP to hold South Carolina at a nearly 90% probability.
Cheryle Shepstone
Wisconsin Governor Poll Shows a Toss-Up, Kalshi Gives Crowley a 79% Probability
David Crowley barely leads Tom Tiffany in a new Wisconsin poll, but prediction markets still heavily favor the Democrat to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers at nearly 80%.
Cheryle Shepstone
Kalshi Volume Reaches $18.37B, Up 17.28% for Sept. 28-Oct. 4
Kalshi volume rose 17.28% to $18.37 billion for Sept. 28-Oct. 4. Polymarket US fell 4.41% to $2.71 billion, while Polymarket dollar volume increased 6.26% to $519.01 million.
Matthew Bain
Volume reports
Prediction Market Volume Nears $20B as Polymarket US Takes Bigger Share
Cheryle Shepstone
Regulation & policy
Kalshi Moves to End Volume Rewards as CFTC Scrutinizes Prediction Markets Incentives
Cheryle Shepstone
Legal news
Prediction Markets at the US Supreme Court 'What If:' What Happens If the Supreme Court Passes on Reviews?
Derek Helling
Industry
CFTC Approves Coinbase as a Derivatives Clearing Organization
Derek Helling
Crypto
SEC Issues Innovation Exemption as CLARITY Act Fails
Iliana Mavrou
Finance & earnings
Kalshi Launches Stock-Index Perpetual as Prediction Markets Push Into Traditional Finance
Cheryle Shepstone
Promo news
Polymarket Promo Code Rate: $25 Bonus for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Thursday Night Football
Polymarket lists Dallas at 80% to beat Tampa Bay on Thursday night, with a $25 bonus available to eligible new users who sign up with promo code RATE.
Kalshi Promo Code RATE: $25 Bonus for Rays vs. Yankees Game 3
Kalshi lists the Yankees at 60% to win Game 3 against the Rays. New users can claim a $25 trading bonus with promo code RATE after trading $10 in contracts.
Polymarket Promo Code Rate: $25 Bonus for Falcons vs. Saints MNF
It's an NFC South tussle on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football. New Polymarket users can grab a $25 welcome bonus for Falcons vs. Saints by using the promo code RATE during registration.
Explanation
How we report
What we cover
DeFi Rate’s newsroom covers prediction markets as markets: what traders are pricing, how much money is behind it, and the rules and court cases that decide where these exchanges can operate. Election reports track races where market prices move. Volume reports use exchange data to show where money is going. Regulation and legal coverage follows the CFTC, state regulators and the courts.
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A price quoted in a story is the price when the story was published, and the story says which venue it came from. Markets keep moving, so for the current price follow the story’s link to our odds page for that market.
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When we get something wrong, we correct the story and add a dated note saying what changed. Updates that add new information are labeled as updates. Corrections are never made silently.
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DeFi Rate earns commissions when readers open accounts through some links, including promo-code offers. Those relationships don’t decide which stories we run or what they say, and promotional posts are labeled Odds and promos.
Methodology
Every story names its primary source. Prices quoted in a story are from the time it was published, and each says which venue they came from. Full methodology →
Full methodology
SourcingEvery story names its primary source: a filing, a court document, an exchange announcement or market data.
Market pricesPrices quoted in a story are from the time it was published, with the venue named. Our odds pages carry the current price.
CorrectionsCorrections and material updates are noted on the story with a date.
IndependenceCommercial relationships with exchanges don’t decide what we cover or how.
Questions
How often is prediction market news updated?
Stories publish throughout the day. The time this page was last updated is shown under the headline.
Why is a story’s price different from the odds page?
The story quotes the market when it was published. Our odds pages show the latest price, with the time it was observed.
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